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Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-16.com/label.php on line 82
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相互进入对方领域,两者“护城河”都不够深。

骑手“二选一”引发争议,京东集团(09618.HK)、美团(03690.HK)股价双双下跌。

截至4月22日中午收盘,京东集团下跌6.61%,报收130港元,逼近4月初低点;美团下跌6.59%,报收127.5港元,跌破4月初低点。

4月21日,京东发表公开信称,为应对某平台的骑手“二选一”,将加大全职骑手招聘力度。当晚,美团就“二选一”事件再次发布声明,京东创始人刘强东则亲自送外卖。

对于两家的“外卖大战”,业内人士认为,股价下跌反映了两者在外卖等业务的激烈竞争,而美团实际上也在抢夺京东其他业务份额;长期来看,这反映了两者的“护城河”并不深,对长期投资人来说,竞争激烈下利润并不好保证。

相互争夺业务

业内人士认为,京东和美团相互争夺市场,可能降低收入增加成本,对短期利润有一定影响。

4月21日,京东发表公开信称,为应对某平台的骑手“二选一”,将加大全职骑手招聘力度,未来三个月将招聘名额由五万名提高到十万名。同时,为应对部分外卖订单延迟的问题,4月21日起,所有超时20分钟以上的外卖订单,将全部免单。

4月21日,美团针对要求骑手“二选一”传言声明称,没有任何平台有动力、有能力约束外卖骑手的接单选择。自外卖行业诞生以来,美团、饿了幺、百度、抖音等参与者均未限制骑手多平台工作。美团从未限制骑手在饿了幺上接单(单量为某平台数倍),未要求骑手不跑闪送、顺丰等其他即时配送平台,同样更没有任何理由对某平台进行任何限制。

慧研智投科技有限公司投资顾问李谦向第一财经分析,短期影响来看,因为出现更激烈竞争,美团的收入会出现一定减少;为了加大市场竞争力,可能会提高外卖骑手的贴补,未来可能会导致利润下降,这造成了对股价的压力。京东作为物流的行业龙头之一,特别是对于网上销售在国内也属于业内前列。但对外卖行业的整合和投入,有一定的风险风险,长远来看京东涉入新的行业,有一定的战略性的价值目标。

港股100强研究中心顾问余丰慧认为,美团和京东在外卖领域的竞争,确实加剧了市场的紧张氛围,双方都在争夺市场份额,并试图通过不同的策略来吸引用户和商家。短期内,这种竞争会对双方的业绩造成一定影响,尤其是对于美团而言,京东的入局会对其现有的市场地位构成挑战,导致股价波动。对于美团来说,其在外卖领域深耕多年,拥有庞大的用户基础和成熟的配送网络;而京东则凭借其在物流和技术方面的优势,尝试提供差异化的服务。如果京东能够有效利用这些优势,并解决外卖业务特有的高频次配送挑战,就有可能在这个市场中站稳脚跟,从而给美团带来长期的竞争压力。

在一位香港分析师看来,市场担心竞争加剧继续,不建议投资者在当前位置抄底这两家公司。过去美团在外卖的市场地位很高,但也经历过较长时间的亏损,直到上市后才逐步扭亏为盈,能实现一定的利润,奠定了行业地位;而当前又要面对新一轮的竞争,在外卖赛道的成本会陆续增加,甚至两者未来在外卖业务都有可能再次出现亏损。实际操作来看,对骑手来说,因为平台算法对骑手要求很高,所以比较难同时在两个平台任职,对配送时间上的限制,对骑手来说也是比较大挑战。

“护城河”是否足够深?

互联网巨头相互进入对方业务,也引发了投资者对“护城河”是否足够深的担忧。

李谦说,对于长期股价运行来说,美团作为这个行业的龙头,能不能守住自己的行业地位,需要提升差异化的服务水平。对于京东来说,投入到新的一个行业,增加新的投资,也让投资者对未来有一些想象空间。总的来说,对于整个行业的竞争还是有良性影响的,京东加入外卖赛道有利于行业整合。

余丰慧认为,长期来看,这种竞争是否会对双方业绩和股价产生持续性的影响取决于多个因素,包括战略调整、运营效率的提升、用户体验的优化以及新市场的开拓等。总的来说,市场竞争加剧通常会促使企业改进产品和服务,提高行业整体水平。而对于投资者而言,重要的是关注双方如何应对挑战并寻找增长点,以及这些策略能否转化为可持续的财务表现。

广州一位私募基金经理对第一财经说,两者商业模式都没有足够深的“护城河”,不同的场景都可以互相渗透。美团外卖不断扩品类,其他业务的渗透不断提升,也会冲击京东核心品类,比如近两年在3C数码方面拓展较快。对京东来说,从防御美团入侵自身核心业务,以及追求中长期新的增长点、业务协同来说,都必须“硬刚”。

该私募基金经理预期,两者短期的毛利及利润都有可能下降,中长期要看京东能否在较高单价的外卖形成“护城河”,而美团守住大众定价的外卖市场,目前还没到稳定阶段。而终局也还很远,未来全品类、全场景电商企业,也必须有全方位的云服务赋能其平台商家客户,并使用人工智能降本增效,形成下一阶段生态,从而提升“护城河”壁垒。

2024年,美团全年营收3376亿元,同比增长22%,年度净利润为358亿元,同比增长158.4%,其中配送服务收入为980.7亿元,同比增长19.3%;交易用户数突破7.7亿,年活跃商户数增至1450万,创下新高。美团称,2024年,实时配送业务实现了稳健增长。如今,外卖已成为餐饮行业增长的重要驱动力,而实时零售已成为零售行业不可或缺的组成部分。

京东集团2024年全年净收入为11588亿元,同比增长6.8%,净利润为414亿元,2023年全年为242亿元,全年人力资源总支出(包括公司的自有员工和外部人员)达到了1161亿元。

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  美银证券发布研报称,太平洋航运(02343)今年第二季度已锁定的运价高于该行预期,因而上调每股盈利预测及目标价。然而,美国贸易代表将于今年10月起征收的港口费用,可能对太平洋航运构成新的负面影响,其三角贸易模式及相对同业的运价溢价,可能因无法避免的“中国所有权”标签而面临风险。美银证券将太平洋航运2025至2027财年每股盈利预测平均上调13%,同时将目标价由1.65港元上调至1.7港元,维持“中性”评级。

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