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  汇通财经APP讯——据路孚特,在象征重生与希望的复活节期间,俄乌战场却未能迎来真正的宁静。尽管俄罗斯总统普京单方面宣布4月20日实施24小时停火,但双方随即互指对方发动数百次袭击,使这场“一日休战”沦为外交噱头。与此同时,美国对斡旋和平的耐心正迅速消磨,特朗普政府公开警告“几天内无进展就放弃调停”,凸显俄乌冲突陷入更深层的僵局。俄乌冲突的持续以及复活节休战协议的破裂,进一步加剧地缘政治不确定性,而美国可能放弃调停的信号,更让市场对局势缓和的预期降低,避险资金再度涌入黄金市场,现货黄金周一(4月21日)亚市早盘震荡走高逾40美元,一度上涨逾1.3%至3373.98美元/盎司,再度刷新历史记录高点。

  休战变闹剧,双方互控千次袭击

  俄罗斯国防部指控乌军在停火期间违反协议超1000次,包括444次炮击和900余次无人机袭击,造成边境地区平民伤亡。乌克兰总统泽连斯基则反击称,俄军仅在复活节当日就发动67次攻击,并讽刺莫斯科“假装遵守休战”,实则持续炮击民用设施。前线士兵和军事博客的零星反馈显示,部分区域交火频率虽降低,但远未达到停火标准。

  这场“纸面停战”暴露出双方根深蒂固的互不信任。泽连斯基提出延长停火30天的条件——要求俄方停止所有无人机和导弹袭击,否则“证明其只想延续战争”;克里姆林宫则坚称“未收到延长停火命令”,并将冲突归咎于乌方“破坏基础设施”。

  美国斡旋濒临破产,欧洲盟友忧心忡忡

  面对俄乌的持续对抗,美国的态度转向强硬。总统特朗普与国务卿鲁比奥接连表态,要求“几天内看到进展迹象”,否则将退出调停。鲁比奥更直言:“我们不会无休止等待,分歧过大就到此为止。”这一最后通牒反映出白宫对俄罗斯不妥协立场的挫败感,也印证了欧洲外交官此前的担忧——美国对和平协议的期望值已降至冰点。

  然而,俄方仍试图维持对话窗口。克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫称“谈判取得部分进展”,但抱怨与华盛顿的接触“异常艰难”。微妙的是,美乌关系也出现裂痕。美方官员对泽连斯基批评特朗普特使“散布俄方叙事”感到不满,认为这种言论进一步阻碍谈判。

  总结:休战幻灭折射和平无解,冲突或长期化

  复活节休战的失败,不仅揭示了俄乌双方缺乏基本共识,更预示着国际调停的局限性。当一日停火都难以落实,特朗普所谓“本周达成协议”的乐观表态更像政治表演。在军事手段无法破局、外交努力濒临破产的背景下,这场冲突正滑向长期消耗战的深渊。而美国可能的撤出,或将迫使欧洲承担更多斡旋压力,但缺乏华盛顿支持的和平方案,恐怕更难撬动僵持的战局。

  俄乌互控对方破坏停火,且美国斡旋濒临失败,表明短期内冲突难以降温。市场避险需求可能再次上升,推动投资者增持黄金作为安全资产。

  若冲突意外升级(如大规模导弹袭击或北约进一步介入),金价可能迅速冲高,重现2022年俄乌开战初期的暴涨行情(当时金价在一周多的时间从1870附近涨至刷新当时的历史高点至2070附近)。另外,俄乌冲突持续可能推高能源和粮食价格,加剧全球通胀压力。若通胀反弹,黄金作为抗通胀资产将更具吸引力。

  (现货黄金日线图,来源:易汇通)北京时间09:05,现货黄金现报3372.04美元/盎司。

  21世纪经济报道记者贺佳雯北京报道

  “分阶段推进人工智能与医学融合。”4月19日至20日,“以人工智能赋能医学发展”为主题的2025年中国医学发展大会在京召开。开幕式上,中国工程院副院长、中国医学科学院院长王辰如是说。

  王辰指出,人工智能是典型的新质生产力,正在深刻改变医学研究的范式与行业生态,医疗卫生关乎生命与健康这一人类终极福祉,必须发挥人工智能作为新质生产力的重要作用。

  21世纪经济报道记者从现场获悉,大会涵盖了人工智能在医学领域的政策及发展规划建议,人工智能算法、算力等技术发展现状,人工智能与医学领域结合的实践与探索,医学人工智能的监管与治理等内容。

  会上,来自数学、人工智能、医学、公共卫生、药学等多学科的顶尖专家,共同探讨人工智能与医学深度融合的创新路径与发展方向。

(中国工程院副院长、中国医学科学院院长王辰。受访者供图。)

  AI不是替代医生

  在王辰看来,在推进融合的进程中,短期是学习探索阶段,重点是要构建学习与教育体系,明确人工智能在医学中的定位与应用逻辑,开展场景化试点;中期是深化应用阶段,通过研究推动人工智能与医疗全场景融合,扩大应用范围;长期是生态构建与国际参与阶段,形成人工智能赋能的医学新生态,覆盖科研、临床、管理全链条,构建新生态、参与国际规则制定。

  值得注意的是,清华大学讲席教授、数学家丘成桐出席并作了《以数学与人工智能的交叉攻克人类疾病难题》主题报告。他阐述随着人工智能发展与大量数据涌现,数学研究生物和医学的条件已成熟。数学为人工智能提供底层架构,在疾病研究等多领域有重要应用,但也面临医学数据方面的难题等挑战,期望数学与医学、人工智能等加强合作,推动相关研究发展。

  另一方面,众多与会专家强调,“AI不是替代医生,而是拓展医学的领域”。同时提出了当前的一些困难和挑战。全国政协委员、工业和信息化部原副部长王江平直言,医疗领域数据具有敏感性、诊疗结果不可逆性、责任主体复杂性的特点,导致医疗行业AI应用处于“高压地带”。他提出“人机对齐法则”的全面渗透策略,强调AI必须通过可解释性、信任度与人性化三重考验,让对齐法则深入技术架构、数据集建设、医院管理、患者知情、行业监管等环节,才能实现AI从高效工具升级为医生的“可信伙伴”。

  加强复合人才培养和医学伦理安全

  未来人工智能与医疗融合的发展趋势又将如何?

  国家卫生健康委员会统计信息中心主任赵韡强调“医生必须在其中有主导权、决策权”。他在《安全与治理——助力医学人工智能发展》主题报告中系统剖析了医学人工智能落地应用面临的风险挑战与治理思路,强调医学人工智能应用始终要以安全可信为前提,坚持以人为本、以患者为中心、以医生为医疗决策主导,夯实数据基础,建立动态可持续评估机制,推动法律、技术、伦理协同治理,推动人工智能服务人类健康。

  国家卫生健康委规划发展与信息化司一级调研员沈剑峰指出,当前需建设医疗领域高质量数据集和人工智能语料库,突破专业语料不足、多模态处理等大模型技术瓶颈,同时多学科、多专业、多部门联动,推动政策标准创新,加强复合人才培养和医学伦理安全,共同推动人工智能的行业应用创新。

  阿尔茨海默病出现症状前18年可精准诊断

  此外,中国医学科学院在会上发布“中国2024年度重要医学进展”,涵盖卒中治疗、基因疗法、疾病预测等13项重大成果。其中,阿尔茨海默病出现症状前18年可精准诊断、发现遗传性耳聋患者的基因治疗方案尤为瞩目,这些进展将显著提升疾病防治水平。

  本次发布的成果从31万余项医学研究中精选而出,包括研发急性缺血性卒中超时间窗静脉溶栓新方案显著降低患者残疾率、证实成人重组戊型肝炎疫苗的长期有效性、揭示一种有效提高糖尿病创面愈合的新型纳米酶机制等。研究显示,适度肥胖但腰围较低的高龄老年人,死亡风险反而更低;另有团队发现炎症性血脑屏障破坏的关键分子机制,为相关治疗提供新靶点。

  来源:兴证全球基金

  自2011年起,兴证全球基金携手媒体合作启动中国投资人峰会项目,为国内外企业领袖、投资人、学界专家等搭建一个交流分享的平台,共同探寻资本市场的新变化和新机遇,讲好中国故事、传播好中国声音。

  当宏观叙事纷繁交织,回归投资的本质变得尤为重要。

2025,是否仍是可为之年?

如何看待科技革命的长期趋势和国际形势的短期扰动?

主动管理的价值与指数化趋势,未来将如何演绎?

股、债、转债、黄金……怎样做好多资产配置?

价值投资的“可为”与“边界”在哪里?

“新经济”与“旧引擎”,如何洞察未来的投资机遇?

  2025年度中国投资人峰会将延续传统,以海内外会场联动的形式,在上海及奥马哈两地举办。

  本年度峰会以“可为”为主题,将联手财联社、腾讯新闻等媒体打造一场思想碰撞的盛会,传递价值投资和长期投资的专业声音。

  洞见机遇,创造“可为”

  共聚中国上海,美国奥马哈

  2025年度中国投资人峰会

  精彩即将开启,敬请期待

  【上海场】直播时间:4月28日14:00-17:30 

  【奥马哈场】直播时间:5月4日14:00-16:30 

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