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专题:聚焦2025年IMF和世行春季年会

  国际货币基金组织(IMF)警告称,美国总统特朗普发起的贸易战正在威胁自2008年金融危机以来保护银行和保险业的全球金融稳定,并敦促各国政策制定者加强各自金融业的抵御能力。

  总部位于华盛顿的IMF在周二发布的报告中指出,最新的关税消息已导致部分资产价格大幅重估,并引发股票、外汇和债券市场波动加剧。若经济前景恶化,可能会有更多调整。

  “全球金融稳定风险已显著上升,”IMF表示,并警告称部分金融机构——尤其是高杠杆机构——可能面临压力。“进一步抛售的主要触发因素可能是地缘政治风险。”

  推荐阅读:市场幡然醒悟真正的特朗普交易或是抛售美国资产

  英国央行本月早些时候警告称,贸易冲突“可能通过抑制增长损害金融稳定”。

  与此同时,俄乌冲突仍在继续,和平协议仍未达成,加沙地带的战斗也在持续。

  尽管IMF发出严厉警告,但该机构货币与资本市场部门负责人TobiasAdrian表示,没有必要感到恐慌。

  他在华盛顿接受采访时表示,4月2日关税公告后市场调整的幅度和速度的确“相当突然”,“但并非无序”。

  “估值过高”

  他指出,目前尚未出现机制性失灵,全球经济并没有在迈向衰退,值得牢记的是,“先前的估值的确严重偏高”。“因此,某种程度上,这更像是正常化的过程。”

  Adrian表示,IMF正在研究市场动荡是否触发了颇受欢迎的高杠杆“基差交易”的“被迫平仓或无序平仓”。该策略旨在借美国国债中的微小定价偏差盈利。

  “我们尚未看到这种情况,可能存在一定程度的平仓,但目前仍处于可控范围,”他补充道。由于此项策略可能加剧市场压力,因此一直令监管机构不安。

  他说,如果关税谈判进展非常糟糕,那么“从金融稳定的角度来看,我们可能会陷入一个令人担忧的境地”,但他补充道,“也有可能这些紧张局势会得到一定的解决。”

  本周在华盛顿与世界银行共同举行春季会议的IMF仍敦促保持警惕。

  报告的作者写道:“相关部门应准备应对金融不稳定,确保金融机构能够获得央行流动性工具,并准备好进行干预,以解决严重流动性压力,或市场功能性压力。”

  他们补充称,银行业资本和流动性水平充足仍是全球金融稳定的重要支柱,尤其考虑到当前高杠杆率以及银行与非银行机构(涵盖保险公司、对冲基金和私人信贷等各类金融机构)之间日益加深的关联性。

  他们还呼吁全面及时落实2017年达成的旨在防范银行体系未来发生金融危机的最终改革方案,即巴塞尔协议III。

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