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寒武纪4月18日晚间公告,2025年第一季度实现营业收入11.11亿元,同比增长4230.22%;归属于上市公司股东的净利润为3.55亿元,上年同期亏损2.27亿元。

  来源:国际金融报

  A股下周将如何演绎?

  4月18日,A股市场成交额缩至万亿元以下。

  本周,A股整体呈现出缩量震荡态势。从板块来看,轮动特征较为明显,但市场尚未形成清晰的投资主线。

  受访人士认为,下周A股的走势,关键在于是否有刺激经济的实质性利好政策出台。建议投资者当前分散持仓,以防御为主。

  缩量横盘震荡

  4月18日,A股市场延续横盘震荡态势,整体呈现缩量格局。截至收盘,沪指收跌0.11%报3276.73点,创业板指收涨0.27%报1913.97点。科创50下跌0.81%,北证50涨近2%。与此同时,今日交易量进一步缩至9147亿元。

  个股跌多涨少,共计2392只个股收涨,涨停股67只;共计2741只个股收跌,跌停股20只。

  板块也是跌多涨少,呈现轮动效应,市场缺乏主线。通信、房地产今日均涨逾1.5%,银行、非银、钢铁均飘红。

  大消费板块回调,美容护理、社会服务、纺织服饰、农林牧渔、商贸零售、食品饮料等跌幅均超过1%。

  融智投资基金经理夏风光告诉《国际金融报》记者,本周市场平淡,盘面呈现以下特征:一是市场中位数小幅下跌,蓝筹股明显较强;二是成交量逐步萎缩,到周五全指的成交量仅仅9000亿元出头,这不仅是年内的低量,更是“9·24”行情以来的最低水平。

  夏风光指出,市场成交量较小,表明谨慎情绪仍然是主流,也缺乏深度市场主线。近期,国家队对指数护盘起到了重要作用,有效阻断了可能发生的系统性风险。当下市场最为关注的是中美贸易恢复接触谈判,以及超预期政策的出台。中长期来看,这两件事情出现的概率并不低,或许将成为未来市场情绪修复的关键。

  尚艺投资总经理王峥告诉记者,近期,国家队资金如中央汇金、中国诚通等持续增持ETF及核心资产,叠加央行表态提供流动性支持如类“平准基金”等增量资金介入,政策托底信号明确,使得大幅下探风险有限。但当前市场量能持续萎缩,近四个交易日成交额降至万亿附近,反映投资者观望情绪浓厚,缺乏增量资金入场;叠加一季报密集披露期的业绩验证压力,市场缺乏持续上行动能,难现趋势性上涨。

  在王峥看来,随着4月底政治局会议临近,稳增长政策(如消费补贴等)加码预期升温,市场有望顺势突破前期缺口。不过,当前美国对等关税等外部扰动因素仍存在不确定性,仍需密切关注中美关税博弈的走向,是否会向半导体、科技、金融等领域扩散,这将直接影响市场风险偏好的变化。

  下周趋势如何

  下周市场将如何演绎?是继续横盘,还是会选择向下调整,抑或是向上突破?

  “本周市场横盘震荡,主要是国家队资金强力护盘。但市场不可能一直横盘。”钜阵资本首席投资官龙舫向记者直言,从交投氛围来看,目前两市成交量萎缩到不足一万亿元,上方面临止盈盘和密集套牢盘的巨大压力。至于向上还是向下变盘,主要取决于周末及下周一是否有刺激经济的实质性利好政策出台,来对冲市场面临的巨大压力,否则向下调整概率大一些。不过,有国家队大资金、保险资金及央企回购为市场提供托底力量,即使调整也不会太深。

  “短期来看,A股将延续震荡整固格局,但结构性机会与风险并存。市场在等待政策信号和经济数据的进一步明朗,同时也在消化前期的反弹成果和业绩压力。如果政策面有超预期的利好出台,市场有望向上突破;反之,如果政策不及预期或外部因素出现负面冲击,市场可能会继续震荡调整。”王峥认为。

  对于投资者来说,当前阶段该如何持仓布局?

  王峥指出,当前宏观环境呈现“内需弱修复、外需强扰动、政策强对冲”特征,市场或延续震荡格局,政策托底与技术面支撑明确,仍需关注政策催化与业绩确定性两条主线,规避高波动板块并警惕外部风险即关税和流动性的短期冲击,灵活进行仓位调整与配置,理性应对市场波动。

  “面对市场的不确定性,建议当前分散持仓,以防御为主。”龙舫建议,首先是仓位控制在六成以下,其次波段操作快进快出。具体持仓可以分为三部分,40%配置于银行、公用事业、资源品等高股息红利类资产,30%配置于人工智能、机器人、新能源等科技成长类资产,30%配置于医药、食品饮料、旅游等价值消费类资产。

  “关注部分国产率提升、对美出口敞口低且美国对中国依赖度较高的相关高端制造、周期等行业。”华金证券策略邓利军团队告诉《国际金融报》记者,与2018年相比,当前部分科技及周期行业在政策支持和基本面改善的背景下,受到加征关税的冲击可能更小。具体来看,通信、建筑材料等行业对美出口敞口较小,且美国对中国相关产品的进口依赖度较高,因此本轮关税调整对其影响相对有限。

  此外,家具及家居用品、塑料制品等行业的出口份额近年由美国转移至欧洲、东南亚等新兴市场,受本轮加征关税的冲击可能较小。总体而言,中国制造业、汽车行业、家具行业、塑料制品行业等领域在应对关税压力时,展现出更强的韧性,受本轮潜在关税冲击的程度显著低于2018年。

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