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面对特朗普关税带来的不确定性,美联航(UAL.US)采取了不同寻常的举措,提供了两种可能的盈利情景,称其2025年的前景仍然可以实现,但同时也警告称,经济衰退可能会使其利润预测减少近一半。该航空公司表示,如果当前环境保持稳定,预计调整后每股利润为11.50美元至13.50美元。如果美国经济陷入衰退,全年利润将降至每股7美元。

财报显示,美联航一季度营收为132亿美元,同比增长5.3%;净利润为3.87亿美元,上年同期净亏损为1.24亿美元;调整后每股收益为91美分,高于华尔街预期的74美分。

美联航股价在纽约常规交易结束后上涨5.2%,这表明该公司预计即使在经济低迷时期也能盈利,这令投资者松了一口气。截至周一收盘,美联航股价今年已下跌约32%,是同期标准普尔500指数跌幅的三倍多。其竞争对手美国航空和达美航空周二也出现上涨。

彭博行业研究分析师乔治·弗格森表示,“即使在他们预测的最坏情景下,他们也谈到了26亿美元的利润”。他还补充道,他从未见过一家公司给出如此多情景的展望。“这已经是相当不错的负面预期了。在我看来,这不像是一个糟糕的环境。”

由于美国总统特朗普的关税政策扰乱了消费者、企业和市场,航空业对今年增长和利润的崇高预期受到了质疑。由于全球贸易不确定性以及消费者和企业信心下降,达美航空上周撤回了其2025年的财务指引,导致收入增长预期“持平”。由于经济环境低迷,边疆航空的母公司也撤回了全年利润预期。

特朗普的关税政策快速转变——先对一些国家和商品征收关税,然后又很快给予减免——使得企业难以准确预测需求和收益。

美联航在公布第一季度财务业绩的投资者更新报告中表示,“今年的宏观经济环境无法以任何有信心的方式进行预测”。

剑桥大学皇后学院院长穆罕默德·埃尔埃利安表示,美联航决定提供两份盈利预测,凸显了“在内部规划时要考虑多种情景,而不是仅仅坚持常规”的重要性。

尽管贸易政策波动引发了对需求的担忧,但美联航表示,预订量保持稳定。过去两周,高端舱位销售额同比增长17%,国际航班销售额同比增长5%。

美联航还表示,二季度季度调整后每股利润将达到3.25美元至4.25美元,而分析师平均预期为3.97美元。

尽管如此,特朗普政府的大幅裁员和边境政策调整已经导致国内航班预订量下降。美联航表示,将从第三季度开始减少四个百分点的国内航班,并将在第四季度继续减少部分低需求日期的航班。该航空公司此前表示,将比原计划提前退役21架飞机。

美国航空公司目前正在观望,看看推迟征收部分关税是否能缓解人们的担忧,并避免利润丰厚的高端和长途国际航班的下滑。

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