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  面对不确定性陡增的市场,基金经理们纷纷开始下调这一持仓指标。

  券商中国记者梳理公募基金一季报发现,今年一季度,由于多位知名基金经理下调了持股集中度,前十大重仓股持股市值占基金净值比明显下降,持仓愈加分散。

  多位基金经理在一季报中表示,当前市场不确定性较高、行情变化较快,下调持股集中度可以更好地防御风险、降低波动。同时,考虑到贸易摩擦的长期性,下一阶段的配置思路是在不确定性中寻找确定性的结构性机会。

  多位基金经理下调持股集中度

  比如,今年一季度的“冠军基”鹏华碳中和主题A,便在今年一季度显著降低了持股集中度,前十大重仓股持股市值占基金净值比从去年末的63.74%,下降到了今年一季度末的44.06%。

  具体来看,在去年末,该基金前八大重仓股的仓位均在5%以上,其中第一大重仓股北特科技的仓位达到8.23%;但在今年一季度末,该基金仅剩前三大重仓股的仓位在5%以上,第一大重仓股双林股份的仓位为5.87%。

  再比如,金梓才管理的财通匠心优选一年持有在提高股票仓位的同时,却下调了持股集中度,前十大重仓股持股市值占基金净值比从去年末的87.31%,下降到了今年一季度末的61.93%。

  具体来看,在去年末,该基金前七大重仓股的仓位都在9%以上,但在今年一季度末,该基金仅有前两大重仓股的仓位超过了7%,其中,他大幅加仓至第一大重仓股的海光信息,持股市值占基金净值比为7.87%。

  此外,彭凌志管理的国泰优势行业在股票仓位并没有明显变化的情况下,前十大重仓股持股市值占基金净值比从去年末的76.07%,下降到了今年一季度末的46.35%,持股集中度也明显下降。

  具体来看,该基金减持了中芯国际、北方华创、中科飞测、中微公司等半导体个股,同时加仓了恒玄科技、兆易创新、润泽科技、光环新网,在调仓后,北方华创跃升至第一大重仓股,但个股仓位却从9.35%下降到6.35%。

  整体来看,Wind数据显示,如果按股票仓位超过50%的口径统计权益类基金,截至一季度,权益基金的平均持股集中度为43.98%,相比去年末的44.19%有所下降,其中约2900只权益类基金的持股集中度下滑,占比约48%,这意味着将近一半的权益基金的持股集中度都进一步分散。

  通过分散持仓抵御风险

  对于为何下降持股集中度,多位基金经理都在季报中表达了对未来不确定性的考量,以及通过分散持仓抵御风险的思考。

  安信策略精选的基金经理张竞表示:“从投资角度,我们无法精确预知未来的政策变化。与其判断充满变化的市场,不如保持乐观和勤奋,积极思考当下我们有哪些更有把握的策略可以去做。”

  在行业层面,张竞表示自己秉持均衡原则,在能力圈范围内,将持仓分散到6至7个相关度不高的行业,避免单一行业占比过高。由于配置的行业之间相关度不高,在市场波动时可以避免行业间同涨同跌,减少整个产品的净值波动风险,提高组合的稳定性。

  华泰柏瑞景气驱动混合的基金经理陈乐在季报中表示,集中度层面,为了控制回撤和降低个股对整体组合的影响,尽量让行业分散,该基金前十大持股的集中度相对较低。

  具体到调仓逻辑上,陈乐表示,2025年一季度相较于2024年底整体增加了科技仓位的配置,增加互联网和半导体的持仓,考虑到全球较大的AI产业趋势,同时国内半导体产业的自主可控在加速发展,所以全年可能保持一定的持仓;但本季度整体减仓新能源,主要是考虑到光伏的供需关系,海风的开工情况,大储的竞争格局松动,锂电材料的供需关系;此外,本季度适当减仓汽车零部件,主要考虑的是机器人相关的投资让汽车零部件公司的估值变得过贵。

  易方达供给改革的基金经理杨宗昌也在季报中表示,考虑到新兴行业相关股票一般股价波动率较大,对组合的细分行业集中度和个股持股集中度做了一些分散,整体组合行业分布相比之前更为均衡。

  诺安改革趋势灵活配置的基金经理杨琨则在季报中坦言,目前面临的变量很多,不可准确预测的事件更多。从投资角度看,所得到的信息总是有限的,而且很多事情变化速度也比预期的快。为了更好地应对市场的变化,获得更好的投资收益,同时考虑到人类的局限性,未来持股集中度会逐渐下降。

  “虽然分散投资不能回避系统性风险,但是可以降低非系统性风险,尤其是在外部环境不确定性较大的背景下。”杨琨表示。

  在不确定性中寻找确定性

  除了分散持仓抵御风险外,面对贸易摩擦、地缘冲突等风险因素带来的不确定性,基金经理们纷纷在不确定性中寻找确定性机会。

  华安医药生物股票基金的基金经理桑翔宇表示,进入二季度,市场逐步从“预期市场”走入看重兑现的“基本面市场”,美国关税政策带来了极大的市场波动和不确定性,考虑到中美博弈的长期性,下一阶段的配置思路是在不确定性中寻找确定性的结构性机会。

  他认为,创新药在今年迎来了三端共振,是基本面的强兑现年份,产业景气周期加速向上,属于医药中确定性最强板块。

  中欧成长先锋的基金经理刘伟伟也表示,二季度宏观经济面临外部环境的不确定性,基金的组合配置上应该在不确定的世界中寻找确定性的产业趋势。

  全年维度看,他依旧认为科技成长是主线,继续看好智驾、互联网、国产算力、端侧、锂电储能等产业方向。其中,智能驾驶是今年最强的产业趋势,随着头部车企提出“智驾平权”的理念,其他车企也纷纷跟进,国内智驾渗透率将在今年实现快速提升,跨越10%的临界点,看好智驾产业链中的整车、芯片、连接器和激光雷达等公司。

  摩根均衡优选混合的基金经理倪权生表示,该基金的组合策略是,在假设总量增长有限的情况下寻找确定性,这类盈利改善的确定性一部分来源于供给侧的格局改善,也来源于需求仍有较好增长的细分领域。

  “基于供给侧优化的逻辑,我们重点布局养殖、上游资源、化纤原料等,这些行业过去几年因盈利恶化或政策影响,资本开支受到约束,供给有望收紧,进而带来盈利反转。而在需求端,我们重点关注出口链和算力相关领域。近年来随着中国制造业企业在全球竞争力的提升,制造业出口结构由初级产品向复杂产品提升,如工程机械、电力设备等,在全球基建浪潮中具有提升市场份额的能力。算力方面,随着AI技术的进步,其模型训练和场景应用在国内和海外均处于快速发展中,前期我们认为算力基础设施的受益确定性仍然较强。”倪权生表示。

  (文章来源:券商中国)

  2025年4月26日,江苏洪田科技股份有限公司(简称:洪田股份(维权),代码:603800)发布《关于公司及相关人员收到立案告知书的公告》,称因公司涉嫌未按规定披露关联交易等违法违规,因公司董事舒志高先生涉嫌未按规定披露重大事项,根据《中华人民共和国证券法》《中华人民共和国行政处罚法》等法律法规,中国证监会决定对公司和舒志高先生予以立案调查。

  根据《民法典》、《证券法》及最高人民法院的关于虚假陈述民事赔偿司法解释的规定,上市公司、控股股东、实际控制人、董监高人员及其中介机构等因虚假陈述等的证券欺诈行为导致证券投资者权益受损的,应承担民事赔偿责任,赔偿范围包括:投资差额、佣金、印花税和利息损失等。权益受损的证券投资者可以向有管辖权的法院提起民事赔偿诉讼。

  由于洪田股份涉嫌信息披露违法违规,被中国证监会立案调查,为维护证券投资者合法权益,上海汉联律师事务所宋一欣律师向曾经购买过洪田股份的证券投资者展开诉讼代理征集,代理投资者索赔诉讼,权益受损的证券投资者可以向前述律师进行索赔登记。(宋一欣律师专栏)

  宋一欣律师认为,洪田股份案的索赔条件为:2025年4月26日前买入洪田股份股票或债券等证券市场公开发行产品,并在2025年4月26日及之后卖出或继续持有的受损投资者,可以办理索赔登记。(洪田股份维权入口)

  ★(律师对本案的提示与说明)

  1.上述提示的索赔条件仅供参考,不涉及投资者任何证券投资决策和证券买卖建议。索赔的最终条件将根据中国证监会行政处罚的结论进一步调整,并以相关法院最终生效的判决所认定的法律时点、赔付对象、赔付范围、赔付标准、会计计算方式为准。

  2.以行政处罚决定为特征的前置条件取消后,投资者虽然可以直接诉讼,但由于调查手段有限,以立案调查通知或行政监管措施决定作为直接诉讼的依据起诉存在败诉的风险,所以,我作为专业律师提示投资者:行政处罚决定仍然应当作为提起诉讼的必要前提之一。

  3.在拟提起的民事侵权诉讼案件中,上市公司退市与否,都不影响民事索赔侵权诉讼的进程,但有可能会影响诉讼的进度。而进入破产程序(包括重整、预重整或清算),则影响诉讼进度的可能会较大。如发生代表人诉讼,您可以选择参加或不参加、加入或退出。

  4.投资者索赔登记或预登记应提供下列材料:(1)《身份证》复印件。(2)《证券账户开户信息确认单》原件(加盖证券公司营业部印章)。(3)从首次买入该股票/债券/权证等至今的《证券交易记录流水》原件(加盖证券公司营业部印章)。

  (本文由上海汉联律师事务所宋一欣律师供稿,不代表新浪财经的观点。宋一欣律师,1992年起律师执业,现为上海汉联律师事务所合伙人。服务领域主要包括资本市场、证券市场、金融市场的法律服务及投资者/金融消费者权益维护。执业至今,为10000余件/起证券诉讼事务或股东纠纷事务提供过法律服务。编著有《证券法原理与实务》、《证券民事赔偿实务手册》、《股市维权》、《中国证券民事赔偿案件司法裁判文书汇编》、《董事责任保险与投资者权益保护》等书籍。执业证号:13101199210628065)

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