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  业绩“双杀”:核心产品失速拖累增长

  4月20日晚间,国内疫苗龙头企业百克生物(688276.SH)交出“双降”成绩单:2024年营收、净利润同比锐减32.64%、53.67%;2025年一季度业绩滑坡加剧,净利润同比暴跌98.24%,扣非后更录得亏损。这一颓势与其曾被视为“第二增长曲线”的带状疱疹疫苗销量断崖式下滑直接相关。

  数据显示,2024年该疫苗销量同比骤降69.8%,库存激增80%,营收贡献从2023年的主力地位缩水至2.51亿元。这一反差令人唏嘘——2023年该产品上市首年曾助推公司净利润显著增长,如今却成为拖累业绩的最大变量。

  千元疫苗遭遇“叫好不叫座”

  作为国产首个覆盖40岁以上人群的带状疱疹疫苗,百克生物“感维”凭借1369元单剂接种的价格优势,曾被视为打破进口垄断的破局者。然而现实却显骨感:与GSK需两剂接种、总价3200元的竞品相比,“价格敏感”的国内市场并未如预期般爆发。

  双重挤压:新生儿萎缩与红海竞争

  更深层危机在于,百克生物的儿童疫苗基本盘正遭遇结构性冲击。占营收68%的水痘疫苗虽维持8.37亿元收入,但新生儿数量持续下滑(2023年跌破900万)与11家厂商的存量竞争,让这一“现金牛”增长空间承压。鼻喷流感疫苗虽增长15%至1.4亿元,但成人疫苗市场已陷入HPV、流感等品类的惨烈价格战。

  转型压力下,公司加速布局阿尔茨海默病治疗性疫苗、mRNA技术平台等创新管线,2024年研发投入占比提升至12.7%。但短期内,带状疱疹疫苗仍是破局关键——其正在推进重组蛋白疫苗研发,试图以多技术路线覆盖不同人群需求。

  百亿蓝海与十面埋伏:国产替代窗口期收窄

  尽管当前国内带状疱疹疫苗市场呈现GSK与百克生物“双雄争霸”格局,但沃森生物、万泰生物等10余家药企已扎堆研发,6款在研产品进入上市冲刺阶段。华源证券研报指出,未来3年该领域可能重现HPV疫苗的激烈竞争,先发优势窗口正在关闭。这场成人疫苗市场的突围战,不仅关乎企业业绩反转,更将成为观察国内创新疫苗商业化能力的试金石。

  本文结合AI工具生成

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