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  成也“金融酒”、败也“金融酒”。

  岩石股份这份年报带来更多启示。

  文丨朱浪

  4月21日,岩石股份披露了或许是2024年白酒上市公司中“变脸最大”的年报。

  年报显示,2024年岩石股份营收2.85亿元,同比下跌82.54%,归母净利润-2.17亿元,同比下滑349%;公司经营活动现金流净额-7546万元,较上年3.98亿元大跌119%,资金链濒临断裂。

  受此影响,4月22日停牌一天后,岩石股份4月23日起被实施退市风险警示,更名为*ST岩石(维权)(注:因岩石股份曾多次调整股票简称,为避免混淆,文中仍以“岩石股份”作为公司简称)。

  历史总是惊人的相似。

  305年前,1720年英国发生“南海泡沫”事件。曾提出万有引力定律和牛顿三大运动定律、被誉为科学巨匠的牛顿禁不住暴利诱惑,投资购买英国南海公司股票。最初股市暴涨,牛顿很快赚到5000英镑。1720年秋天泡沫破灭,南海公司股价暴跌87.5%,牛顿损失了20000英镑,相当于他当造币厂厂长10年的收入。

  对于这段经历,牛顿留下名言:“我能精确计算出天体运行的轨迹,却难以预料到人性的疯狂。”这句话或许同样能够击穿曾经火爆的酒类投资泡沫。

  █ 

  热钱资本,瞄准白酒市场

  按时间推算,岩石股份进军白酒算是新兵。

  2018年底,当时的岩石股份以200多万元收购一家线上白酒销售平台——贵州贵酒云电子商务有限公司,正式进入白酒赛道。2019年底,公司以“经营状况不达预期、减少亏损”为由,出售贵酒云及子公司贵酒销售全部股权,并成立上海军酒有限公司改卖散酒。

  2019年,岩石股份宣布变更公司名称为“上海贵酒股份有限公司”。但截至2019年上半年,公司白酒销售尚不足250万元。彼时的岩石股份在白酒赛道仍只能算试水。

  变化很可能来自股市。

  2019年前后,A股酿酒板块迎来一轮大牛市,很多酒类股票上涨5-10倍,甚至出现上市公司“沾酒必涨”现象,大量业外热钱涌入,岩石股份随即快速布局白酒。

  2020年底,岩石股份以8600万现金收购江西章贡酒业和赣州长江实业两家公司各25%股权,控股股东还将持有贵州高酱酒业有限公司52%股权无偿赠与公司。

  章贡酒业是江西知名酒企,成品酒产能3万吨/年;长江实业负责章贡酒销售和推广;高酱酒业从事大曲酱香基酒的生产和储存,被授权贴牌生产销售酱香型白酒,2020年停工五年的高酱刚全面复产。至此,岩石股份终于在白酒生产端补齐短板。

  █ 

  卖酒不赚钱、炒股赚钱

  2020-2023年,岩石股份营收从7971.77万猛涨至16.29亿元,并在2021年成功摘帽。

  多位酒业人士表示,作为一家成立时间短、品牌历史文化欠缺的白酒企业,岩石股份业绩能够一飞冲天,很大程度上是敢于“砸钱”。

  2020-2023年,岩石股份销售费用分别为11.36亿、10.87亿、7.21亿、7.21亿。同期对应的公司营收为7971.77万、6.03亿、10.91亿、16.29亿。2023年白酒上市公司销售占比中位数为17.80%,从正常角度看,投入产出明显不合理。

  吊诡的是,2020-2021年期间,岩石股份股价一路高涨,从7.70元最高上摸51.66元,涨幅超过600%。

  有专业人士认为,“卖酒不赚钱、炒股赚钱”往往是资本酒的特征。资本市场的拔苗助长终究未能成功,2024年年报即说明问题。

  █ 

  酒是用来喝的,不是用来炒的

  岩石股份市场快速起落,除了将热钱投向市场外,也离不开其独创的“金融酒”销售模式。

  有公司老员工回忆,2019年公司实控人刚收购酒厂,高薪招聘员工但迟迟不出业绩,就推出一个营销策略。一个销售经理打款5000块,就能从公司拿价值5000块的酒,还能拿到4500块工资加1000块奖励,公司还给交社保公积金。对员工来说,虽每月工资要提前垫资,但可免费获得大量白酒,是笔“稳赚不赔”的买卖。

  受利益驱动,有人拿出多年积蓄或向亲朋好友借钱加入上海贵酒,变相成为其经销商,在其业绩增长中扮演关键角色。甚至公司团队会批量从农村购买大量身份证,伪装成“新入职员工”,还给办理社保、签订劳动合同。

  专业人士分析,按照买酒发工资模式,岩石股份销售的已不是白酒,而是一种高回报的投资理财产品,只有通过越来越多后期进入者不断融资,才能支付前期投入者的资金和利息。

  显然,白酒卖到这般地步,已沦为一种金融工具。岩石股份在一定程度上成也“金融酒”、败也“金融酒”。

  350年前牛顿就表示,股票生意失败不是因为自己缺乏计算分析能力,而是无法预测人性的疯狂。岩石股份爆雷离不开“资本酒”“金融酒”大背景,人性的贪婪才是根本。

  试想,一家白酒公司凭借“卖酒不赚钱、炒股赚钱”做大,依靠“员工买酒发工资”动销,完全脱离正常商业逻辑,却能快速做大甚至以“创新者”标榜,鲜艳之下很可能潜藏隐忧,最终爆发。

  这或许是这份特殊的年报,留给行业的启示。

  明明举报诗词大会决赛问题,得到的回复却是工程欠款问题。近日,宁夏银川市市长信箱一封张冠李戴的回复,引发了不少关注。4月27日,银川市电子政务服务中心工作人员回复现代快报记者称,此事系工作人员失误所致,现已被内部处理,12345平台也已向举报人电话致歉。

  4月26日,博主“@姚果果-没日没夜减肥版”在社交平台上发帖称,其向银川市市长信箱举报了“第六届西夏区诗词大会决赛”相关问题,结果等来的回复是“银川某工程欠款”问题。该博主表示,市长信箱“已读乱回”的做法,让其哭笑不得。4月27日,记者通过社交平台向对方留言,但暂未接获回复。

  4月27日上午,现代快报记者致电了银川市电子政务服务中心,一名工作人员表示,此事系“回访岗”工作人员失误所致,12345平台已经给举报人打电话致歉了。他说:“我们市委(督查室)和政府督查室已经在核查了,前面各部门的回复都是正常的,回访岗要对各部门回复内容进行审核把关,最后在平台上回复,他们复制粘贴错误了,出现了张冠李戴。”

  该工作人员表示,回复错误发生于4月22日,次日发现问题后,银川市12345及西夏区针对此事进行了核查,之后对于相关出错的工作人员,已经进行了内部处理。至于官方后续是否会针对此事公开通报,对方表示,需要等银川市委督查室和政府督察室核查之后再做决定,具体他并不清楚。

  此外,对于举报人所反映的关于“第六届西夏区诗词大会决赛”相关事宜,前述工作人员表示,他们已经转至银川市西夏区文联,要求对该投诉工单进行重新核查办理,具体后续情况他并不掌握。

  在消费市场持续演进的当下,品牌的影响力与市场策略的有效性愈发关键。近期,据五粮浓香官方微信公众号消息显示,旗下运营的多款产品将依托央视平台,于4月28日,在五粮液主品牌引领下共同参与“礼酝华章遇鉴和美”——中央广播电视总台《礼仪中国》开机启动仪式暨五粮液新品发布会”。

  五粮液浓香酒公司负责运营五粮春、五粮醇、五粮特曲、尖庄等一系列深受消费者喜爱的品牌。此次与央视的合作,是其继以往成功合作案例后的又一次深度携手。

  以过往合作经验来看,成效显著。春节期间,五粮液浓香酒公司作为2024年央视新闻“年味浓起来”新媒体合作伙伴,与央视总台共同打造了一场集年味、文化与美酒于一体的春节盛宴。双方通过一系列趣味视频、贺岁大片、年味海报等互动玩法,将白酒与春节文化紧密相连,极大地提升了品牌的曝光度和美誉度。而即将到来的“礼酝华章遇鉴和美”发布会,五粮液浓香酒公司亦将再次借助央视的平台优势,进一步提升品牌价值,深化产品在市场的影响力。

  《礼仪中国》作为央视精心筹备的重点节目,聚焦中国传统礼仪文化的传承与弘扬。五粮液浓香酒产品作为中国传统白酒的杰出代表,与节目在文化内涵上高度契合。酒,在中国传统礼仪中一直扮演着重要角色,无论是祭祀、庆典还是社交场合,酒都是传递情感、表达敬意的重要载体。凭借悠久的酿造历史、精湛的酿造工艺和卓越的产品品质,五粮液浓香酒公司相关产品早已成为消费者心目中高品质白酒的象征。此次借助《礼仪中国》的开机启动仪式,五粮液浓香酒将在全国观众面前,再度诠释品牌与传统礼仪文化的融合。

  在此次活动中,央视文化IP与直播电商平台将形成强大的势能组合,共同推动五粮液浓香酒的新产品与消费者的见面。据悉,五粮液浓香酒将携手央视总台旗下直播电商平台“央央好物”,于活动现场进行8款新品的重磅发布。这些新品旨在满足不同消费者、不同场景的需求。

  五粮液浓香酒公司此次依托五粮液主品牌,携手央视总台开展“礼酝华章遇鉴和美”合作,不仅是在二季度发力市场的重要举措,也将为整个白酒行业的品牌建设和市场拓展提供有益的借鉴。相信本次发布会将取得圆满成功,为消费者带来更多的惊喜,为行业发展注入新的活力。

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