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你以为我不敢在车里要你|陪你一起追寻梦想与勇气的故事!

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4月11日,九洲药业(603456.SH)发布2024年年度报告,公司实现营收51.61亿元,同比下降6.57%。扣非净利润5.94亿元,同比大幅下降42.06%。九洲药业2024年年度净利润6.07亿元,业绩同比大幅下降41.14%。

对于业绩大幅下降的原因,九洲药业表示,归属于上市公司股东的净利润较上年同期减少,主要系市场竞争加剧,产品价格下降,销售业务减少;计提资产减值等所致;归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润较上年同期减少42.06%,主要系市场竞争加剧,产品价格下降,销售业务减少;计提资产减值等所致。

除此之外,九洲药业CDMO业务增长失速、海外竞争加剧、应收账款上升、募投项目延期等问题隐忧也逐渐暴露。

业绩不及预期

CDMO业务增长失速

九洲药业的主要业务是为全球药企提供创新药从临床前到商业化上市的一站式药物研发、生产解决方案和专业服务,主要产品包括合同定制类和中枢神经类药物两项,其中合同定制类(即CDMO业务)占比75.00%,中枢神经类药物占比7.54%。  

图源:公司年报 

2024年九洲药业营收51.61亿元,同比下降6.57%。从营业收入的分布情况来看,合同定制类营收38.71亿元,同比小幅下降了5.12%。中枢神经类药物本期营收3.89亿元,去年同期为4.64亿元,同比下降了16.27%。 

合同定制类营收下降的主要原因是2024年CDMO医药行业面临着较为激烈的价格战,生物医药投融资降温,制药企业收紧研发支出,对价格更为敏感,导致行业竞争压力加剧。

部分CXO企业为争取订单,对国内新客户大幅降价,例如美迪西先是2023年药物发现与药学研究业务客单价同比下降36.81%,临床前研究业务客单价同比下降23.59%,2024年单价又继续承压。

药石科技也表示,2024年为引入业务、赢得订单,面对国内客户明确价格需求及市场比价情况,报价比以往降低。

奥浦迈指出,2024年CDMO业务终端价格承压情况普遍存在,行业处于出清过程。价格战对九洲药业也产生了巨大影响,导致部分产品价格同比下降约10%,直接拉低整体营收。

价格战的出现拉低了九洲药业的产品整体毛利率,2024年合同定制类毛利率为38.38%,同比小幅下降4.86%。

而九洲药业的第二大业务中枢神经类药物,日子也不好过。首先是国内仿制药企业技术突破加速,中枢神经类核心品种,例如抗抑郁药、抗癫痫药等产品均面临同类产品低价竞争。2024年该类产品价格同比下降约10%,而同期原材料成本上涨,形成“量价双杀”格局。

同时,印度原料药企业通过低价策略抢占全球市场份额,九洲药业中枢神经类海外收入同比减少6.55%,进一步压缩利润空间,且中枢神经类产品中仿制药占比过高,未能形成差异化竞争。

以上原因都导致九洲药业中枢神经类药物毛利率呈下降趋势,从2022年的45.84%,下降到2024年的35.58%。

图源:IFIND

在销售模式上,企业主要渠道为直销,经销能力较弱,2024年经销模式收入同比暴跌50.22%,仅贡献1.45亿元,反映传统分销体系竞争力衰退。而直销模式虽占比97.16%,同期毛利率为34.52%,同比下降4.08个百分点,显示直销渠道议价能力减弱。

而这一切,首先是受当前医药行业整体大环境不佳影响导致,其次是九洲药业的研发投入力度不足,2024年九洲药业研发费用仅为3.15亿元,同比下降4.81%。

国际市场风云变幻

前有壁垒后有追兵

根据2024年年报,九洲药业海外营收为40.25亿元,占公司总营收的77.99%。

尽管海外市场是九洲药业的核心收入来源,但2024年其海外收入同比下降6.55%,伴随着全球化趋势减弱,海外市场未来面临着一定的调整压力。

图源:IFIND

从总体上来看,九洲药业当前海外市场主要面临着以下几个问题。

首先是市场竞争白热化与价格压力,尤其是欧洲市场遭到挤压,欧洲地区是九洲药业海外收入的主要来源地,但印度企业通过低价策略抢占市场份额,导致抗感染类原料药等低毛利产品价格同比下降约10%,直接拖累毛利率,让抗感染类毛利率跌至-5.74%。

九洲药业原本也想开拓亚太市场,但当前的形势下,亚太新兴市场拓展难度加大,之前九洲药业已经通过日本、新加坡等地的CRO平台布局亚太市场,但日本高端仿制药市场竞争激烈,且东南亚市场对成本敏感,订单转化效率低于预期。

其次是受国际政治经济波动的剧烈影响,九洲药业主要依赖欧美市场,但欧美市场的地缘政治不确定性增加,导致部分客户项目交付延迟或订单转移。例如,CDMO业务中临床III期项目达1026个,但实际上市项目仅35个,技术转化效率不足。

且当前美国正在利用关税大棒让医药供应链区域进行重构,美国对生物反应器等设备加征关税的潜在风险,倒逼企业加快海外产能建设,但这样一来就延长了产能释放周期长,例如九洲药业的多肽商业化产能建设需1-2年,具体推动可能需要更长的时间,短期内难以应对当前九洲药业面临的成本压力。

第三是行业技术壁垒与客户集中度风险,高附加值领域竞争不足,九洲药业在中枢神经类、抗感染类等传统原料药领域技术壁垒较低,而印度企业在规模化生产上更具成本优势。相比之下,公司在多肽、ADC(抗体偶联药物)等高壁垒领域虽布局加速,但商业化订单占比仍不足20%。研发费用投入占营收比重仅为6%左右,有很大的提升空间。

且九洲药业的国际市场的大客户依赖度高,前五大客户贡献了64.31%的销售额,其中诺华一家占比达56.65%。

图源:IFIND

客户集中度过高导致议价能力受限,且一旦核心客户订单波动,将对收入稳定性造成显著冲击。

募投项目延期延期18个月

技术转化效率不足

年报公布的同时,九洲药业公布了募投项目延期的公告。公告显示,原本计划于2025年6月30日投产的创新药CDMO生产基地项目一期工程将延期一年半至2026年12月31日投产。

该项目为九洲药业2022年非公开发行股票募投项目,定位为创新药CDMO生产基地建设,总投资12亿元,原本计划提升公司在全球创新药研发生产服务领域的竞争力。

截至2024年12月31日,募集资金实际投入6.72亿元,占承诺投资总额的56%,公司强调延期仅涉及进度调整,不改变实施主体、投资总额(12亿元)及用途。

图源:公司募投项目延期公告

至于延期的原因,虽然公司公告没有给出具体的解释,但总体上可以归结为外部环境与供应链压力。

首先是外部的不可控因素,包括国际政治经济波动对设备采购、原材料供应的影响,以及海外客户需求变化导致的项目研发进度调整。例如近两年的CDMO行业产能扩张加速,价格战趋势明显且没有明显的拐点。

同时九洲药业自身的技术转化效率不足,截至2024年,公司CDMO管线中临床III期项目达1026个,但实际上市项目仅35个,需优化技术验证流程。

那项目延期对九洲药业的影响有多大呢?

投资者担忧项目延期可能削弱公司CDMO业务增速(2024年海外收入同比降6.55%),但公司通过德国、日本等海外基地承接订单以对冲风险。

而从长期来看,全球CDMO市场规模预计2026年达1500亿美元,延期可能延缓公司在高壁垒领域(如ADC、细胞治疗)的产能布局,错失技术领先窗口期。(《理财周刊-财事汇》出品)

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