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  美联储23日发布最新一期全国经济形势调查报告(俗称“褐皮书”)指出,自上次报告以来,经济活动几乎没有变化,但国际贸易政策的不确定性普遍存在。

  在短短56页的报告中,“关税”一词共出现了107次,是上一期报告的两倍多;与“不确定性”相关的表达出现了89次。报告认为,随着经济不确定性的增加,特别是围绕关税的不确定性,多个地区的前景显著恶化。

  中国人民大学经济学院教授王晋斌接受中央广播电视总台环球资讯广播记者采访时分析说,“褐皮书”反映出美国总统特朗普反复无常地推出旨在重塑全球贸易的全面关税政策所带来的影响。

  特朗普政府推出的“对等关税”对美国经济状况的影响非常大。因为这是大面积、大规模的关税,几乎对所有的贸易伙伴都开征了“对等关税”。

  首先,会影响到美国进口品的价格,会出现居民抢购的行为。与此同时,由于进口关税的问题,可能会导致美国国内需求增加,对相关行业的影响极大,也会影响到美国本身的生产。这两者加起来,会对美国经济的总需求造成向下的压力。

  一方面,关税推高了美国的通胀;另一方面,关税又会遏制美国经济的总需求。因此,美国经济会在通胀和增长或就业之间,出现更加艰难的权衡,这就有可能出现所谓滞胀的风险。

  近期,美国总统特朗普与美联储就是否应该降息产生拉锯。

  虽然特朗普日前称,他无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔,但他同时表示,希望鲍威尔在利率问题上采取更加积极的行动。

  王晋斌进一步分析指出,特朗普希望美联储降息,有两个基本原因。

  特朗普是经商出身,对利率成本比较敏感。但在现有的法律框架下,特朗普没有直接解雇美联储主席的权力。因此,就采取了一贯的极限施压的方式,希望鲍威尔能够降息。

  美国国债规模现在已超过36.2万亿美元,今年还有大规模的国债要到期,如果降息,美国政府就可以较低的利率“借新债还旧债”,这样就可以大幅降低成本。

  此外,降息通常会导致美元贬值,这对美国制造业以及出口来讲,有一定好处。

  素材来源丨环球资讯广播《直播世界》

  记者丨张晗印梅梅

  编辑丨林维

  签审丨原丁康炘冬

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