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  美股盘前,美股三大股指期货齐跌,英伟达、阿斯麦等芯片股普跌。

  截至发稿,道指期货跌0.38%,标普500指数期货跌0.17%,纳指期货跌0.05%。

  德国DAX指数跌0.41%,英国富时100指数跌0.29%,法国CAC40指数跌0.51%,欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.69%。

  WTI原油涨0.80%,报61.82美元/桶。布伦特原油涨0.80%,报65.19美元/桶。

  美银4月全球基金经理调查显示,“美国例外论”已达顶峰。

  调查显示,随着特朗着的关税计划引发对美国经济增长放缓的担忧,美国例外论主题已达到顶峰。

  73%的受访投资者表示美国例外论已见顶。调查还显示,投资者预计特朗普的减税计划无法抵消关税对经济的影响。63%的投资者不认为减税将在今年下半年提振经济增长。

  调查发现,美国关税推动全球增长预期降至30年来最低水平。

  美银表示,净82%的受访者认为全球经济将走弱,创下30年来的新高。42%的受访者认为可能发生经济衰退,而“硬着陆”(通胀下降伴随著显著的经济放缓或衰退)的可能性从3月的11%激增至49%。调查显示,”软着陆”(通胀放缓但经济不会过度放缓)的预期从64%降至37%。

  调查表明,34%的受访投资者预期将降息两次,25%的受访者预期降息三次,16%的受访者预期降息四次或更多次。13%的投资者预测将降息一次,而9%的投资者预计美联储利率不会变化。目前联邦基金利率目标区间为4.25%-4.50%。

  调查显示,4月看空美元的押注攀升至近19年来最高水平。约61%的投资者预计未来12个月美元将走弱,创2006年5月以来最大看空比例。

  调查同时揭示,69%的投资者认为美元估值过高,较上月激增10个百分点,创2022年12月以来新高。

  现货黄金涨势不止,史上首次站上3310美元/盎司。

  特朗普政府就是否需要对关键矿产加征关税启动调查,或扩大贸易战范围,从而推动避险资产需求上升。

  对于黄金短期可能出现的波动,中欧财富表示,长期来看,不管是美国经济衰退、滞胀还是软着陆,都将利好黄金表现。黄金的长期投资逻辑不变,短期如有波动,可能更多是由于杠杆资金降低风险偏好,或者止盈诉求所带来的回调。

  此外,美东时间时间周三13:30(北京时间周四凌晨1:30),美联储主席鲍威尔将在芝加哥经济俱乐部就美国经济前景发表讲话,预计市场将密切关注他的讲话,寻找有关潜在降息以及银行增持美债监管改革进展的线索。

  焦点个股:

  英伟达跌超6%,该公司预计第一财季与H20产品相关的库存、采购承诺和相关准备金费用为55亿美元。

  阿斯麦跌超5,一季度订单不及预期,称关税加剧今明两年前景不确定性。

  美股半导体股盘前多数下跌,AMD股价盘前跌7.2%,博通跌5.2%,美光和英特尔分别跌4.8%和3.2%。

  美股盘前黄金股普涨,哈莫尼黄金涨逾8%,金田涨近8%,anglogold涨6%,科尔黛伦矿业涨逾4%。

  美股盘前热门中概股普跌,蔚来跌超5%,京东、小鹏汽车、理想汽车跌超4%,阿里巴巴、台积电跌超3%。

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