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  杰富瑞全球股票策略主管ChristopherWood表示,美股的市值已见顶,股票、美债和美元可能进一步回调。

  Wood在接受电话采访时说,投资者在重新平衡投资组合时应考虑增加中国、印度和欧洲资产。他表示,美股的市值占MSCI全球指数的比重在12月底达到了峰值,将其比作20世纪80年代末的日本市场。

  “美国资产已经触及历史高位,”他指出。“美元已经开启长期走弱之势,这将降低美股的市值在全球的比重。”

  这位资深策略师对美国市场的看跌观点与全球市场弥漫的悲观情绪遥相呼应。自特朗普推出混乱的关税政策后,许多人认为美国例外论正在终结。

  “这不仅仅是美国走下坡路的问题,而是欧洲、中国和印度崛起的问题,”他说。

  “低收费”牵动市场敏感神经的背后,更多是对券商投行业绩寒冬的担忧。

  “保荐费、承销费及持续督导费总额为9万元”“财务顾问费为20万元”这是一汽解放2024年年报中,披露的该公司各项资本运作中投行收费的情况。

  募资规模较大,承销保荐收费极低的情况,并不是个例。第一财经梳理发现,过往多家募资规模较大的上市公司,定增承销保荐费率低至0.01%及以下。

  受访投行人士对第一财经说,大型上市公司增发收费较低,主要是券商出自维护大客户以及规模排名的考虑,盈亏不是核心,比较看重大客户带来的综合业务收入以及增加募资规模提升行业排名。

  “低收费”之所以牵动市场敏感神经,更多原因在于对券商投行业绩寒冬的担忧。从券商整体的承销保荐收入来看,增发业务对收入的贡献并不大,IPO业务才是创收主力。

  近年来,随着A股IPO市场遇冷,投行承销保荐收入持续下滑,行业竞争加剧。另外,中介机构收费新规实施后,短期内投行创收也将面临新的考验。

  部分定增项目收费出现“地板价”

  根据一汽解放(000800.SZ)年报披露,2024年,该公司因A股定向增发,聘请中金公司(601995.SH)为保荐承销人,保荐费、承销费及持续督导费总额为9万元;因实施重大资产重组事项,聘请中信建投证券(601066.SH)作为独立财务顾问,财务顾问费为20万元。

  相较于行业一般收费水平,上述费用已经低到“地板价”。第一财经据同花顺数据粗略统计,2023年至今,披露承销保荐费用明细的定增项目接近400例,平均承销保荐费率为1.37%。一汽解放2024年定增项目募资规模为20亿元,若按照通常1%的费率收费,对应承销保荐费用应为2000万元,但实际收费却仅有9万元。

  根据同花顺数据,一汽解放此次定增发行费用共228.78万元,除承销保荐费外,审计验资费50万元,其它费用169.78万元。

  类似情况并不鲜见。同花顺数据显示,上述披露承销保荐费用明细的近400例增发项目中,募资规模超过10亿元的共有154例,其中110例承销保荐费率低于1%,占比超过七成。

  此外,增发承销保荐费率低于0.1%的共有10例,以央国企居多。除了一汽解放,中国核电(601985.SH)、昊华科技(600378.SH)2024年底的增发,募资金额分别达到140亿元、45亿元,投行的承销保荐费用分别为30万元、40万元,费率低至0.1%及以下。

  为何投行部分增发项目的承销保荐收费出现“地板价”?上海某投行人士对第一财经说,此类项目收费并不容易,券商出自维护大客户以及规模排名的考虑,即便没有利润也会抢着做,因为比较看重大客户带来的综合业务收入。

  北京一名投行人士也对第一财经称,募资规模是部分券商投行业绩考核的一项,大型企业的募资规模较大,尽管收费低但仍是投行青睐的“香饽饽”,券商争取此类项目主要是出于增加募资规模提升行业排名的考虑。

  投行承销保荐费用持续下降

  从券商整体的承销保荐收入来看,增发业务贡献并不大,IPO业务才是创收主力。近年来,随着A股IPO市场遇冷,投行承销保荐收入持续下滑。

  根据同花顺数据统计,2023年以来,股权融资发行费用连年下降。2023年、2024年股权融资发行费用分别为325.65亿元、83.92亿元,分别同比下降27%、74%;2025年至今,股权融资发行费用30.26亿元,同比下降6.72%。

  按照披露投行承销保荐费用的项目粗略计算,2023年、2024年,投行承销保荐费用分别为240.54亿元、56.84亿元,分别同比下降29%、76%;2025年至今,投行承销保荐费用19.67亿元,同比下降14.67%。

  随着IPO数量的减少,承销保荐费率波动有所减小,平均费率小幅增长。

  据同花顺统计,2023年,IPO承销保荐费率最高14.73%,最低1.23%,平均费率7.4%;2024年IPO承销保荐费率最高14.56%,最低0.82%,平均费率7.71%;2025年至今,IPO承销保荐费率最高12%,最低4.5%,平均费率达到8.09%。

  在承销保荐收入持续缩水情况下,面对高额的成本,已有部分投行入不敷出。自2024年以来,多家头部券商为了降本增效对投行部门进行“瘦身”,投行保代加速流失。“工作量只增不减,工资还在一直降,已有不少同行在主动寻找新出路。”一位从业多年的保代说。

  收费新规后投行收费模式生变

  随着中介机构收费新规实施,短期内投行创收仍将面临新的考验。

  2月15日,《国务院关于规范中介机构为公司公开发行股票提供服务的规定》(下称“收费新规”)明确,承销保荐收费不得与上市结果挂钩,不按发行规模递增比例,禁止变相收费,同时取消地方政府上市奖励等。

  同花顺数据显示,收费新规实施至今,共有21个IO项目启动了招股。从承销保荐费用来看,最低的2750万元,最高达到1.76亿元,多数集中在2000万元至6000万元之间。多家IPO企业在招股书中明确,参考市场保荐承销费率平均水平确定费用,分阶段收取。

  比如4月24日上市的江顺科技(001400.SZ),采取直接定价方式发行,IPO发行费用共6993.03万元,其中承销及保荐费4571.12万元,项目包括保荐费200万元、承销费为4371.12万元。同日上市的天有为(603202.SH)也在招股书中披露,保荐费300万元,承销费用约1.73亿元。

  从收费模式来看,部分采用网下询价发行的公司,在采用“发行募资总额×固定比例”的方式确定承销费用的基础上,也与承销保荐机构约定了“保底”费用。

  如首航新能(301658.SZ)的IPO承销费用,按照实际募集金额总额的8.8%收取,费用金额低于3000万元时,仍按3000万元收取;汉朔科技(301275.SZ)也披露,IPO项目保荐承销费为发行募集资金总额的8%,且不少于8000万元。

  在业内人士看来,收费新规规定不得按照发行规模递增收费比例,主要目的在于抑制高价超募,对投行整体影响有限。“但采取阶段收费,短期内受客户接受度的影响,在上市前景不明朗情况下,客户一般不愿意支付太多费用。”上述投行人士说,当前投行面临“粥少僧多”的局面,买方市场下,未来投行增收面临不少考验。

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