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  今日,A股小幅震荡,主要股指涨跌互现,上证指数微幅上扬,再创阶段性新高,深证成指、科创50等则微幅飘绿。市场成交进一步放大至1.12万亿元。

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  展望后市,国泰海通指出,中国股市估值的主要矛盾正在发生转变,要看到中国的确定性,贴现率下降是2025年中国股市上升的关键动力。更加积极有为且后备充足工具箱的经济政策,以“投资者为本”的资本市场制度改革,中国股市风险溢价有望系统性下移,而无风险利率下降将成为增量入市的关键一环。投资者关于内外部的疑虑消减,中国股市也有望走出升势,战略性看多。

  东莞证券称,短期海外扰动已经有所减弱,而随着财报披露窗口期结束,市场或从短期大波动行情转向基本面驱动的行情,整体趋势有望继续企稳修复。操作上建议保持均衡配置,在市场震荡反复中做好中线布局。根据政策方向,板块上建议关注金融、食品饮料、公用事业、商贸零售、有色和TMT等板块。

  市场热点方面,农业股全线走强,虫害防治方向领涨,板块指数高开高走,放量大涨3.5%。美邦股份、中农联合等多股盘中垂直拉升快速涨停,中欣氟材、江山股份等涨幅居前。

  供销社、草甘膦、种业、粮食概念等板块也强势上攻,天鹅股份、海欣食品、赤天化等涨停。

  谷雨节气后全国气温稳步回升,各地抢抓农时推进春耕春管。农业农村部最新农情调度显示,今年,全国粮食意向种植面积预计17.9亿亩左右,其中春播粮食面积9.6亿亩,均比上年有所增加。

  目前,全国春播粮食面积1.1亿亩,进度过一成,与上年基本持平。其中,早稻栽插过四成半,春播马铃薯过半,春小麦过三成,春玉米播种近一成。

  此外,为保障今年夏季粮油作物稳产丰收,近期农业农村部种植业管理司会同全国农技中心、农药检定所,派出7个工作组,分赴14个重点省份,深入一线调查小麦油菜苗情长势,指导各地因时因地因苗落实肥水管理措施,做好“倒春寒”、春旱等灾害防范,落实病虫草害防控措施。

  中信证券表示,反制关税措施之下,农业种植产业链是稀缺的、直接受益的板块。本轮关税风暴再次凸显粮食安全的极端重要性,种源自主可控,已成为保障过年粮食安全的重中之重,种业板块或将再受政策强力支持。此外,提振农产品价格,直接带来种业、种植公司业绩增长预期;农产品加工板块预计也将出现结构性个股机会。

  经过昨日短暂调整之后,银行股今日再度走强,板块指数涨1.14%,成功阳包阴。农业银行创历史新高(复权,下同),渝农商行创5年半以来新高,重庆银行创4年来新高,中国银行、建设银行、工商银行等亦在历史最高附近随时准备突破。

  湘财证券认为,随着外部经济压力加大,预计金融增量政策配合宽松财政政策加快落地,银行基建、消费等领域信贷供给加强,有望维持信贷增速相对平稳。维持行业“增持”评级。建议关注大型国有银行等高股息银行股,以及股份制银行与优质区域行受益于稳经济政策与经济修复预期。

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