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周四,美股连续第三个交易日上涨,科技股领涨,市场消化美联储官员讲话后,降息预期升温。主要股指延续了特朗普可能取消部分最严厉关税后的涨势。AJBell金融分析主管DanniHewson表示:“对于已经愉快地习惯了一段例外主义时期的市场来说,要想真正恢复常态,需要的是(似乎是特朗普所无法带来的)确定性。”

标普500指数上涨2.03%,纳斯达克100指数上涨2.74%。数据显示,标普500指数连续三天上涨至少1.5%,创下1974年以来单日涨幅达1.5%的最长时间。芝加哥期权交易所VIX波动率指数徘徊在26附近。在个股中,IBM(IBM.US)下跌6.6%,该公司最新财报未能让投资者满意。农用设备零售商TractorSupply(TSCO.US)股价下跌3.4%,该公司削减了大额支出,下调了预期。

投资公司AboundFinancial首席投资官DavidLaut表示:“既然市场已经收复了相当一部分失地,它可以开始延续这一势头。虽然市场的复苏不会是一条直线,但看到市场开始在关税取消后的环境中定价,这令人鼓舞。”

与此同时,对美联储比预期更早降息的押注提振了美股。美联储理事沃勒周四表示,如果关税导致就业岗位流失,他将支持降息。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克(BethHammack)在接受采访时表示,如果有明确的经济走势证据,官员们最早可能在6月份采取行动。

在经济数据方面,申请失业金人数略有上升,反映出劳动力市场稳定。今年3月,美国二手房销售出现了自2022年以来的最大跌幅。投资者也纷纷关注一系列业绩报告,这些报告描绘了一幅不安的画面。IBM股价下跌,收益令人失望,该公司表示经济不确定性和美国政府削减成本可能会影响其业务。百事可乐公司(PEP.US)股价下跌,此前该公司罕见地公布每股收益低于预期,并因全球贸易不确定性下调了全年盈利预期。

不过,美股对指引变化的反应并非完全是负面的。尽管由于季度销售额近五年来首次下降,并下调了全年预期,但墨式烧烤(CMG.US)公司股价上涨。美国航空集团(AAL.US)取消了年度盈利预期,但该公司股价仍有所攀升。

全英银行的MarkHackett表示,“管理层提供谨慎或没有提供指引,尽管这是市场普遍预期的,而市场反应一直令人鼓舞。”

Hackett补充称,这与过去几年形成鲜明对比,当时市场在进入财报季时“预期升高,但反应冷淡”。他指出,在经历了数周的震荡之后,投资者“期待市场情绪稳定下来”。

  谷歌母公司Alphabet第一季度营收和利润均超过分析师预期,得益于搜索广告业务持续强劲的表现。

  Alphabet第一季度扣除合作伙伴分成后的营收为765亿美元,高于分析师平均预估754亿美元。每股收益2.81美元,远超华尔街预期的2.01美元。

  财报发布后,Alphabet股价在盘后交易中上涨4.6%。今年以来,公司股价已下跌16%。

  为证明其在人工智能(AI)领域加大投资的合理性,Alphabet需要保持互联网搜索广告和云业务的增长势头。面对日益激烈的竞争,该公司及其竞争对手正在基础设施、研发和人才方面投入巨资。虽然谷歌得益于AI初创公司对云服务和商业工具的支出,但它也在加快推出能够抗衡热门AI聊天机器人的自家产品。消费者已经开始将这些AI工具视为谷歌搜索的替代品。

  谷歌应对这一威胁的初步方案是在搜索结果中推出“AI摘要”和“AI模式”,即利用生成式AI在搜索结果前提供总结性答案,这一方式获得的市场反响褒贬不一。同时,谷歌搜索的AI化改造也导致许多独立网站的流量大幅减少。

  谷歌云业务第一季度营业利润21.8亿美元,高于分析师预期的19.4亿美元,不过营收略低于预期。这一结果表明,即使云业务的销售增速放缓,谷歌仍可能从中获得更多利润。

  Alphabet仍在大举投资人工智能。今年第一季度资本支出达172亿美元,略高于分析师预期的171亿美元。

  投资收益

  Alphabet一季度利润增至345亿美元,其中包含对一家非上市公司投资带来的80亿美元未实现收益。据知情人士透露,这家企业正是马斯克创立的SpaceX公司。

  Alphabet自2015年以来一直是SpaceX的重要投资者。当时,它与富达投资共同向SpaceX投资10亿美元,合计获得约10%的股份。去年12月,SpaceX及其投资者达成购买内部股份的交易,该交易对SpaceX的估值达到约3500亿美元。

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