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鲍鹏山商君书:我们应忽略的偏见与误解

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  汇通财经APP讯——当前市场正因特朗普政府政策反复陷入动荡,投资者迫切关注美联储将如何应对潜在危机。从关税摇摆到股市波动,白宫的不确定性正考验着美联储维稳市场的智慧,而历史经验表明,这个全球最重要央行手中握有系列“救市王牌”。

  历史工具箱待重启

  近期市场剧烈波动令人想起疫情初期,当时美联储通过零利率政策、数万亿债券购买和行业支持计划力挽狂澜。分析师指出,这些工具仍可随时启用,并已通过新机制得到强化。古根海姆投资宏观研究主管PatriciaZobel强调,包括常设回购便利(2021年推出)、贴现窗口紧急贷款等在内的自动稳定器,已构成应对流动性危机的第一道防线。

  谨慎的干预态度

  尽管工具完备,美联储主席鲍威尔近期明确表态不急于干预股市波动。他认为当前市场虽受政策不确定性冲击,但交易仍“井然有序”。这种克制态度背后,是对政策工具可能被误解为货币刺激的谨慎——例如重启债券购买既可能稳定市场,也可能被解读为货币政策转向。

  争议中的终极武器

  前美联储理事史坦等专家指出,资产购买应作为“最后防线”。学界建议参考英国央行2022年应对“特拉斯震荡”的经验,建立“买入-卖出”临时机制,将市场维稳与常规刺激区隔。不过在此之前,常设回购便利等自动工具可能率先发挥作用——该机制虽仅启用过一次,但被视作预防流动性危机的关键设计。

  总结

  面对政治因素引发的市场动荡,美联储正行走在政策干预的钢丝上。从即用的自动稳定器到争议性的债券购买,其工具箱既有短期应对手段,也暗含长期政策考量。正如鲍威尔所言,只要市场机制运转正常,美联储更愿作冷静的旁观者;但若危机重演,这个曾改写金融历史的央行,已然备好从常规到非常规的整套应对方案。

4月25日,马应龙药业集团股份有限公司(马应龙,600993.SH)披露一季报,公司2025年一季度实现营业收入9.69亿元,同比增长1.48%;归属于上市公司股东的净利润2.04亿元,同比增长2.99%。

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