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在海湖庄园与唐纳德·特朗普共进晚餐,从来都不是为了享用美食。这顿晚餐可能提振一家公司的前景,甚至有可能改变历史进程。根据美国全国公共广播电台报道,英伟达公司首席执行官黄仁勋参加了最近在美国总统特朗普的佛罗里达州官邸举行的晚宴后,白宫一度暂停了限制对英伟达向中国销售H20芯片的计划,这给白宫阻止中国人工智能飞速发展的努力画上了一个巨大的问号。然而,4月16日,英伟达披露称,美国再次要求在向中国出售H20芯片前必须获得许可证。

H20并不是英伟达最具创新性的人工智能芯片,却是该公司可以合法向中国出售的最先进版本芯片。据科技新闻网站TheInformation报道,这些芯片具有重要的战略价值,由于预计面临更严厉的出口管制,中国科技企业在2025年第一季度就花费了160亿美元囤积这些芯片。

黄仁勋曾经一度使这些限制不在考虑之列,他究竟是如何做到的?根据美国国家公共广播电台援引知情人士的消息报道,英伟达向特朗普承诺,该公司将为美国建设人工智能数据中心注入新的投资,为美国人创造更多工作岗位。一位知情人士证实,黄仁勋出席了在海湖庄园举行的晚宴。4月13日,特朗普在TruthSocial发布了一条链接,指向英伟达的一篇博客文章,这篇文章宣布该公司计划首次在美国本土生产“美国制造的人工智能超级计算机”。

如果该报道属实的话,这对美国来说感觉像是一笔不划算的交易。虽然增加数据中心的工作岗位也有价值,但是与中国通过囤积更多H20芯片来增强其技术优势的战略价值相比,实在是微不足道。

今年2月,中国初创企业深度求索(DeepSeek)让全世界感到震惊,该公司推出了一款免费的人工智能模型,其能力不亚于OpenAI和谷歌的人工智能模型。这个模型使用的是英伟达H800芯片,这款性能略强的芯片最适合构建和训练此类系统。而特朗普批准向中国出口的低端版H20芯片,显然更适合所谓的“推理任务”,即运行人工智能模型来完成日常工作。这款芯片也是为规避针对中国政府的出口管制而设计的,在很大程度上优于中国的国产芯片,因此备受青睐。半导体分析师迪伦·帕特尔(DylanPatel)最近在他的SemiAnalysis博客中撰文称,英伟达在2024年预计生产的100万枚H20芯片,大部分可能都流向了中国。

H20芯片在推理任务方面的专长或许是黄仁勋的谈判策略之一,如果黄仁勋向特朗普强调,这些芯片不会提升中国构建更多突破性模型的能力,而只是用于现有的模型。但这在战略上仍然很重要,因为这类芯片有助于形成创新反馈循环。在商业、公共服务和军事领域应用的人工智能越多,用于训练新的人工智能工具的数据就越多。比如,中国的大规模监控系统帮助中国在面部识别领域处于全球领先地位,正是因为中国企业获得了大量人脸数据来训练和优化系统。

正如彭博视点专栏作家凯瑟琳·托尔贝克(CatherineThorbecke)所解释的那样,中国通过鼓励国内科技企业开发免费的人工智能开源大模型,进一步强化了这种策略,从而使任何人都可以复制并在其基础上进行创新。企业把技术蓝图放到网上(就像深度求索公司做的那样),听起来可能很疯狂,但这种协作方式让中国的科技企业能够以更快的速度进行大规模创新,缩小与硅谷在人工智能能力上的差距。

正因如此,美国国会最近才会出现两党推动限制向中国出口H20芯片的情景。今年2月,民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦和共和党参议员乔什·霍利认为,深度求索是“出口管制的失败”,是美国商务部屈从于企业游说的结果。

他们现在希望特朗普加强“人工智能扩散规则”,这是美国今年1月推出的一项举措,旨在通过限制向中国出口人工智能芯片等方式,保持美国的技术领先地位。坦白说,从美国的自身利益来考虑,这项政策过于复杂和模糊。批评人士认为,这可能会促使印度等国家发展独立于美国的供应链。

但这项政策出台是有原因的:确保国际人工智能发展符合美国的利益。而比一项模糊的政策更糟糕的是,特朗普似乎在战略上反复无常地改变立场。这不仅表明只要施展恰当的魅力攻势,总统就会动摇,而且还表明他并不关心中国在人工智能领域占据主导地位的长期计划,无论是打造该领域的领先模型,还是部署这些模型以获得对西方国家的经济和军事优势。

这不仅有可能危及美国的技术安全,也有可能危及欧洲的技术安全,迫使欧洲国家和企业重新思考如何填补美国留下的空白。这是特朗普的贸易战让欧洲再次陷入两难境地的又一例证,欧洲现在必须决定是否要对ASML公司和英飞凌科技公司等企业向中国销售产品实施新的限制,而这些限制要比美国现在的限制更为严格。去年,中国新闻媒体曾报道,安谋控股公司(ArmHoldings)急于绕过当地中间商,直接向中国授权芯片设计,以提高其毛利率。如今这种情况似乎变得更加不可能了。

特朗普推动更多就业岗位回归美国的想法,短期来看似乎是有利的,但也低估了中国利用开源大模型(以及现在来自英伟达源源不断的人工智能芯片)打造的创新飞轮效应。美国为建造新数据中心付出的代价,最终可能是在这场技术竞赛中失去来之不易的领先地位。编辑/陈佳靖

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