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  本报记者 刘 琪

  今年以来,美元指数可谓“跌跌不休”,近期其下跌的速度与幅度更是呈现出显著的扩大趋势。

  Wind资讯数据显示,截至4月22日,年内美元指数跌幅超9%。4月份以来,短短数周跌幅已超5.5%。其中在4月21日,美元指数盘中接连破99、98两个关口,最低下探至97.9137,创2022年4月份以来新低。4月22日,截至18时,美元指数当日在98.0083至98.5642之间波动。

  近期美元的持续走弱,背后是多重复杂因素的交织影响。中国银行研究院主管王有鑫在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示,从经济基本面看,当前,美国经济下行压力加大,经济数据表现疲软,对美元指数走势形成拖累。从美联储政策预期及独立性角度看,美国经济衰退风险加大使得美联储降息节奏加快的预期升温。与此同时,市场对美联储政策独立性的担忧加重。此外,近期美国金融市场波动持续加剧,美债和美股面临的抛售压力加大,美元资产对外资的吸引力下降,跨境资本流入放缓,也对美元走势形成抑制。

  在美元持续走弱的背景下,黄金市场却呈现出一片繁荣景象,价格不断攀升。Wind资讯数据显示,4月9日以来,国际金价快速上行。4月22日,现货黄金(伦敦金现,下同)、COMEX黄金期货盘中双双突破3500美元/盎司。截至当日18时,现货黄金、COMEX黄金期货盘中最高分别达3500.12美元/盎司、3509.9美元/盎司,均刷新历史新高。

  王有鑫分析,近期黄金价格上涨一方面受美元贬值驱动。美元指数走势通常与黄金价格负相关,美元快速走弱对黄金价格形成支撑。另一方面,黄金价格上涨还受避险需求与央行购金等因素影响。受全球贸易政策不确定性加剧等因素影响,全球避险情绪持续升温,黄金作为主要的避险资产,在美元走弱背景下获得更多避险资金青睐。此外,随着黄金价格快速走高,多家国际投行上调对黄金价格的预测,投机性资金快速流入黄金市场。

  展望美元后续走势,东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪对《证券日报》记者表示,考虑到美国经济衰退、叠加资金外流,美元的弱势或仍将延续。至于金价,预计短期内仍将保持震荡上行态势。资金的避险需求将对黄金形成有力支撑,黄金本身的抗通胀属性亦将助推其价格上行。此外,在美国高额债务,以及逆全球化对美元资产安全性的冲击背景下,全球央行配置黄金意愿仍较强,这也将对金价形成支撑。

  王有鑫认为,目前来看,美元已进入下行通道,在连续跌破多个整数点位后,短期受美国经济下行、政策不确定性风险加剧、跨境资金流出和非美货币升值等因素影响,可能继续承压。从中长期看,美国财政赤字攀升、美债信任危机持续发酵、美国经济增长潜力下降将持续对美元走势形成抑制。

  巴西总统卢拉在巴西利亚举行的巴西-智利商业论坛上表示,“我觉得很奇怪,象征着自由贸易的国家却提出全球从未见过的最大规模关税政策。”卢拉称,多边主义可能在被扔进垃圾桶,取而代之的是从未给谁带来好处的保护主义。卢拉称,智利和巴西都对冷战不感兴趣,我们在意的是所有人。我们希望墨西哥总统辛鲍姆开始为墨西哥寻找美国以外的其他机会。智利总统博里奇在同一活动中表示,不会在强国之间做出选择。

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