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  2025年一季度泓德丰泽混合(LOF)基金份额净值增长率为7.93%,同期业绩比较基准收益率为-0.52%。基金自2019年3月28日成立以来累计净值增长率69.73%,同期业绩比较基准收益率为8.55%。

  一季度在DeepSeek、哪吒等事件的催化下,市场情绪高涨,AI、机器人等热点轮番演绎。Wind全A上涨1.90%,表现较好的行业为汽车、有色、机械等。港股市场在低估值水平和外资流入助推下体现出更强的弹性,一季度恒生指数上涨超过15%。

  泓德丰泽混合(LOF)在港股互联网、消费及医药行业的配置为一季度贡献了较好的绝对收益。二季度的开局与一季度截然相反,随着美国对全球贸易伙伴征收“对等关税”,长期以来的全球贸易秩序被打破,资本市场也随之产生较大的动荡。4月上旬全球贸易秩序的巨大波动很难用传统的逻辑来理解,更不用说预测。“我们认为当下不是去做预测的时候,而是更多关注确定性,关注所投资的企业是否具备足够的韧性来应对这些变化,关注持仓个股的估值是否为最差的情形做好了定价。”基金经理季宇表示。

  关注确定性方面,季宇认为内需消费领域仍然不乏相对不受外部环境扰动、自身产品或经营周期向上的企业,企业的经营趋势并未被打破,估值水平不高,在当下依然是较好的投资标的,泓德丰泽混合(LOF)后续也会更多关注这类企业。

  泓德丰泽混合(LOF)中所投资的部分企业有来源于北美地区的收入,与制造型企业不同,直接面向消费者的品牌公司竞争力建立在产品、品牌、渠道多重保护基础之上,成本只是企业竞争力的一个维度,且企业毛利率较高,可以通过产品迭代等手段进行直接或间接的提价来转移成本压力。品牌企业更多的风险是价格上涨以及动荡局势下海外消费者信心受到冲击之后对短期需求的抑制。

  回顾过去几年市场经历过的外部冲击,16年英国脱欧、18年贸易战、20年疫情、22年俄乌冲突等,回溯来看每一次市场最恐慌的时候都反而提供了很好的买点,考虑到AH两地市场较低的估值水平,季宇认为这次也不会例外。如果非要做一个预测,季宇认为关税带来的成本会上升,但全球贸易分工的大趋势不可逆,中国企业已经形成的全球竞争力不可逆;“从投资角度,当下我们更多聚焦到微观企业的竞争力和估值水平,并希望积极利用大的负面的宏观冲击带来的买入机会。”季宇表示。

MACD金叉信号形成,这些股涨势不错!

  个人养老金制度出台已满三年。

  2022年4月21日,国务院办公厅印发《关于推动个人养老金发展的意见》(以下简称《意见》),提出推动发展适合中国国情、政府政策支持、个人自愿参加、市场化运营的个人养老金,实现养老保险补充功能。

  自个人养老金制度试点以来,个人养老金保险产品不断扩容,保通社梳理发现,截至目前,保险类在售产品114款,其中,专属商业养老保险、分红型、万能型的浮动收益类保险产品数量超50款,占在售产品总数近五成。

  业内人士在与记者交流时表示,浮动收益类产品可以通过分红等方式,增厚客户收益,是监管鼓励的方向,对于投资能力较强的公司而言,在此类产品的探索上更具优势。

  2024年12月,人力资源和社会保障部(以下简称“人社部”)等五部门发布《关于全面实施个人养老金制度的通知》(以下简称《通知》)。根据《通知》,2024年12月15日起,个人养老金制度从36个先行试点城市(地区)推广至全国。

  这项制度设计出炉至今已三年,个人养老金产品数量、种类不断丰富,账户开户人数不断增加。人社部数据显示,截至2024年11月末,已有7279万人开通个人养老金账户。

  作为个人养老金产品的重要组成部分,近年来,保险类产品数量扩容明显。国家社会保险公共服务平台显示,截至2023年4月21日,个人养老金专项产品共计1013款,其中保险类产品数量有225款,占比已超过两成。

  中国银保信数据则显示,目前在售的个人养老金保险产品有114款,其中,中国人寿产品数量最多,有12款产品在售,此外,太保寿险、人保寿险、国民养老目前均有9款产品在售。

  从产品类型来看,保险公司积极推出了多种个人养老金保险产品,两全保险和年金保险为固定收益型产品,此外还有浮动收益类的万能、分红型产品,专属商业养老保险提供稳健型、进取型两种不同的投资组合,同时设有保证利率,也属于浮动收益类产品。

  保通社注意到,从数量上来看,目前专属商业养老保险、万能型和分红型的年金保险和两全保险,合计数量为53款,占比接近五成。

  从公司来看,泰康养老、中意人寿、建信人寿、泰康人寿、大都会人寿推出的产品均为浮动收益类,此外,中国人寿、太保寿险、人保寿险、中信保诚人寿、新华人寿、新华养老、平安人寿的浮动收益类产品占比在50%及以上。

  在低利率市场环境下,浮动收益类保险产品具有一定保证利率的同时,目前结算利率水平在一众养老理财产品中吸引力凸显。以专属商业养老保险产品收益为例,记者统计显示,稳健账户2024年结算利率在2.5%~4.07%的区间,进取账户2024年结算利率在2%~4.12%的区间。

  “开户热、缴存冷”,是个人养老金账户在发展中需要应对的问题。有保险机构人士在与保通社交流时认为,这一现象的原因在于“个人养老金账户开户完成后,银行并没有做配置产品的引导,包括养老规划和产品选择方面”。

  上述《通知》提出,金融机构依法依规开展个人养老金投资咨询服务,根据个人投资风险偏好和年龄等特点,推荐适当的个人养老金产品。鼓励金融机构在与参加人协商一致的情况下,探索开展默认投资服务。

  对此,该机构人士表示,默认投资服务的前提是委托关系,以及默认推荐的组合跟客户需求的匹配性,此外还有客户未来的需求会不会发生变化,这些权责都要理清楚。

  此外,客户买入个人养老金产品之后亏钱,也可能导致缴存减少或者不再缴存的情况。在业内人士看来,从个人养老金制度实施以来的情况看,储蓄产品数量最多,被追求安全性的人群所钟爱;基金产品良莠不齐,风险较大,适合较为激进的人群选择;而保险产品无论是收益还是保障都是最好的。

  今年全国两会期间,全国政协委员、对外经贸大学教授孙洁在接受媒体采访时表示,个人养老金投资期限应以中长期为主,但目前市面上的个人养老金产品以银行储蓄和理财类产品居多,占比超过五成,产品同质化现象严重,并且基金、理财产品大多是1至5年的短期产品。在利率下行、优质资产供给不足的背景下,亟需具有养老金管理经验的金融机构创新开发更多提供中长期稳健收益的养老金融产品。

  在其看来,对比各类养老金融产品,唯有养老年金保险的领取时间可以延长至终身,即终身给付型养老年金保险,让参与者每年可以领取一笔确定的养老金。不过,这种设计也给保险公司带来了较大的长寿风险,还需要建立长寿风险转移和分散机制。

  平安养老险相关负责人在近期的媒体交流会上表示,预计未来几年,国家将继续出台更多支持第三支柱发展的政策,包括税收优惠、市场准入、监管标准和投资范围等方面。个人养老金账户的税收优惠政策进一步优化,以吸引更多人参与;新业务试点和新产品准入主体将逐步放开,产品和服务供给将更加丰富。

  “在政策支持下,养老金融产品的种类将更加丰富,产品设计将更加注重长期性、稳健性和普惠性,以满足不同人群的养老需求。创新方向上,将更具针对性和精细化,会更加关注不同人群在积累期、领取期、风险偏好、流动性、附加服务等方面的差异化需求。”该负责人称。

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