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金昌市(永昌县、金川区)

  “粮安天下,肥稳粮基。”尿素,作为“粮食的粮食”,承载着14亿人饭碗的厚重期待。中国作为全球最大的尿素生产国和消费国,年产量超过5000万吨,占全球总产量的30%以上。然而,这个关乎国计民生的重要农资产品,其价格波动剧烈堪称“过山车”,曾让无数农资企业和农户如履薄冰。数据显示,2020年-2024年,尿素价格年波动幅度均超过40%。

  “我们这个行业,‘上午签合同,下午亏百万’的例子曾比比皆是。”在中国证券报记者近日赴成都、合肥的调研中,有尿素企业人士告诉记者。

  不过,这一现象在2019年8月9日迎来转机:尿素期货鸣锣上市,自此开始为产业链装上“稳压器”。一条金融衍生品铺就的“稳粮之路”,正从郑州商品交易所延伸至农田和工厂,不断书写“金融活水润三农”的新篇章。

  小微企业“破茧重生”

  在安徽某地的一家塑料制品厂车间里,机器正开足马力运转。谁能想到,这家年采购仅3万吨的尿素需求企业,曾因“买不到、买不起”尿素而濒临停产?

  尿素作为重要化肥,其工业需求同样十分重要,但下游多为中小企业,具有抵抗风险能力弱、议价能力低的特征。

  据介绍,上述这家小微企业每年尿素采购量仅3万吨左右,在现货市场多随行就市、缺乏议价权。尤其是遇到现货供应紧张优先保障农业生产的情况下,该企业经常面临双重困境:一是尿素货源紧俏、买货难;二是价格持续上涨、买货贵。

  对此,国元期货量身定做:2023年至2024年,帮助该企业在期货市场上买入一定数量的尿素期货合约进行轻仓操作尝试,最终使得总采购价格下降72.7元/吨,占采购价的3%。“对我们这样的小微企业来说,10元/吨的成本下降就能让企业起死回生,70元/吨的降幅简直就是企业的发展转折点。”该企业负责人感慨道。

  “首次套期保值取得了良好的成效,不仅保证了企业正常生产,为其生产安全系上了一层‘保护索’,也实现了盈利。”国元期货研究咨询部主管张霄表示,通过此次运作,该企业对于期货的功能和应用有了切身体会。

  据介绍,像这样通过期货工具实现“绝地反击”的小微企业正在全国遍地开花,他们从过去的“随波逐流”转变为现在的“自主掌舵”,真正掌握了经营主动权。

  龙头企业“驭势而行”

  2024年尿素市场再现剧烈波动,价格从年初的2400元/吨跌至年底的1600元/吨。面对这一惊涛骇浪,行业龙头云图控股却稳如磐石。“我们140万吨的尿素贸易量和65万吨的纯碱产量,基本都通过期货工具锁定了利润空间。”公司副总裁周燕表示。

  据介绍,云图控股建立了完整的风险管理体系:在采购端通过买入套保锁定成本,在生产端利用期货价格指导排产,在销售端采用基差贸易模式稳定利润。

  通过与实体企业的深度交融,尿素期货已将保供稳价从政策口号变为企业报表上的扎实利润。四川农资化肥有限责任公司氮肥事业部副总经理胡仁才告诉记者,借助尿素期货,公司贸易量4年增长104%,期现结合比例从50%跃升至100%,“期货是企业稳健经营的安全带。”

  辉隆股份是全国知名的大型农资商贸流通企业、郑商所尿素期货贸易商仓库和厂库。其氮肥事业部经理助理、期货部负责人刘杰表示,公司尝试各种期货策略,致力于为客户降低采购成本,同时积极利用期货工具规避公司经营风险。借助期货市场,公司改变了经营模式,实现良性快速发展,并与客户实现双赢。

  产业链“基差革命”

  “以前是中国尿素(价格)看山东,山东尿素(价格)看鲁西,现在是全国尿素(价格)看期货。”辉隆股份副总经理潘晓飞告诉记者,他所认识的种粮大户手机中都装有期货软件,时刻在盯着尿素期货价格变动。

  记者在调研中了解到,不少龙头企业作为郑商所的产融基地,在自身利用期货工具的同时,还积极带动上下游企业直接或间接参与,以基差交易为导向,助力下游降低采购成本,为保供稳价、发挥期货市场服务实体经济功能贡献力量。

  据郑商所市场发展部相关负责人介绍,郑商所多年来持续支持产业链龙头企业、金融机构等有关单位开展服务实体经济的产融基地项目,旨在发挥产融基地作用,引导产业企业等经营主体科学合理利用期货市场。产融基地主要针对郑商所已上市品种的期现货市场发展情况和特点,开展培训、调研、优秀案例总结、宣传推广等持续性、系统性的市场培育活动。2025年,郑商所产融基地合作单位已达到92家。

  周燕介绍,自2020年成为郑商所产融基地以来,云图控股一直积极开展尿素期货专题培训,基本上覆盖了上下游龙头企业。去年云图控股作为产融基地开始进入东北肇东和广西南宁两地,将自己参与期货的切身体会分享给大家,带动产业链上下游企业不断加深对期货的认知和运用。

  记者了解到,随着尿素期货稳步发展,在郑商所产融基地的带动下,尿素行业已掀起一场“定价模式革命”——产业链普遍采用基差点价这种贸易模式。“开展基差贸易,利用了期货的价格发现功能,让现货买卖双方按照公允的期货价格确定现货交易,提高了议价效率、减少了议价矛盾,具有延期定价、锁定成本和利润、规避基差波动风险等优势。”潘晓飞介绍。

  “未来我们将继续推进大手拉小手活动,扶持企业定制风险管理方案,协助客户设计套保策略。”周燕表示,通过降低整个产业链经营波动性,形成长期合作生态。

  胡仁才介绍,通过2024年活动的开展,公司与产业企业的合作情况呈现出可喜变化:一是与合作产业企业的引导工作更具有针对性,例如,通过“川农话肥”的宣讲,湖北新洋丰、湖南新三湘等成功申请交易所交割厂库并积极准备进行期货市场的参与工作。二是上游产业企业对期货市场的认可度得到极大提升,现货销售更多采取基差模式。三是通过基差贸易方式,建立撮合机制,实现尿素期货的首次集团交割。

  “下一步我们将继续聚焦产业链的上下游企业进行宣讲,积极拓展尿素期货期权的覆盖面,做好期货市场功能发挥的‘宣传队’,成为行业参与期货市场的‘播种机’。”胡仁才表示。

  (文章来源:中国证券报)

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