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作者|OliverRodzianko

编译|华尔街大事件

台积电(NYSE:TSM)将于2025年4月17日公布2025年第一季度业绩。尽管经济不确定性加剧了投资者的谨慎情绪,但台积电的战略优势使其能够从对先进人工智能和计算芯片的长期持续需求中显著受益。当前的价格疲软明显过度,对投资者来说是一个颇具吸引力的入场时机。

台积电2025年第一季度的营收可能会较2024年第四季度的创纪录水平环比放缓,但仍将较上年大幅增长。官方预期第一季度营收约为254亿美元,该公司已公布第一季度初步销售额约为256亿美元。这比上一季度下降了约5%,但同比增长了约42%。

预计每股收益约为2美元,较上年增长约45%。根据财务报表,第四季度毛利率和营业利润率分别达到58%和47.5%。台积电预计2025年第一季度毛利率为57-59%,尽管产量下降,但利润率下滑幅度很小。台积电的忠实粉丝们应该还记得,人工智能加速器和新款智能手机处理器推动了2024财年营收同比增长25%,净利润增长30%。

预计人工智能和计算芯片作为主要增长引擎的结合将持续到第一季度:管理层特别提到“持续的高性能计算相关需求”将提振第一季度。即使智能手机和个人电脑需求仍处于周期性低迷期,台积电的营收仍受到人工智能加速器订单长期激增的支撑。

AI需求的增长值得更多关注。3纳米(“N3”)和5纳米(“N5”)技术在第四季度分别贡献了晶圆收入的26%和34%。加上7纳米(“N7”),它们占台积电销售额的74%。进入2025年,台积电作为尖端AI加速器事实上的代工厂的地位将得到巩固。由于微软(MSFT)和亚马逊(AMZN)等超大规模厂商争相部署更多AI产能,Nvidia(NVDA)将在第一季度继续保持最大客户的地位。然而,由于AI芯片,台积电用于高带宽内存的专用CoWoS封装在去年得到了充分利用,这是一个制约因素。虽然该产能正在扩张,但短期内的产能瓶颈将限制第一季度AI芯片出货量的上行空间。分析师还预计AMD(AMD)在第一季度的晶圆投入将保持稳定,尽管规模不如Nvidia。博通(AVGO)也可能成为台积电额外先进节点产量的重要贡献者。

为了更好地应对蓬勃发展的需求,台积电制定了2025年资本支出计划,将达到380亿至420亿美元(高于2024年的约290亿美元),主要用于提升先进节点产能(3纳米、2纳米)和先进封装。不过,客户可能会为了确保产能而“提前下单”,这种情况可能会在之后逐渐恢复正常。目前,所有迹象都表明,第一季度的业绩受益于AI芯片业务的持续强劲增长。

截至2025年4月中旬,台积电在美国的ADR交易价格在150-155美元左右。考虑到该公司在人工智能热潮中的长期增长地位,这是一只被严重低估的股票。此外,当前对长期股票市盈率压缩的经济担忧是错误的。相反,分析师看好在美国主导的自由贸易协定(可能在未来几个月内成型)的推动下股市复苏。预计这将在媒体上引起强烈关注,并促使前瞻性市场重新提升美国股票市盈率,从而推动纳斯达克指数(NDX)和标准普尔500指数(SPX)在2026年创下历史新高。

该股14周RSI接近35,表明对于中长期投资者来说,这是一个强劲的入场点。此外,该股目前股价远低于其50日移动平均线。鉴于目前对经济的担忧被严重夸大,这些简单的指标显示出逆向投资的价值。

台积电的股价也低于其五年平均非公认会计准则市盈率34倍。目前该比率为22.3。部分原因在于其商业模式的周期性因素,但随着地缘政治环境的改善,我确实预计未来将出现倍数扩张。保守估计,可以设定一个非常容易实现的基准情景下非公认会计准则市盈率25倍,以及12个月后TTM标准化每股收益9.50美元。最终股价为237.50美元。当前股价为155美元,因此预测基准情景下12个月的上涨空间为50%。

台积电目前股价低于155美元,是一个极具吸引力的强力买入机会。该公司估值显著低于合理水平,主要原因是大环境不确定性,而非结构性业务疲软。台积电有望实现大幅增长,并保持利润率韧性。此外,在美国主导的民主贸易联盟推动下,关系有望改善,这可能会恢复投资者信心,从而推动股价倍数扩张,并推动其股价向保守的12个月目标价237.50美元迈进。分析师的目标价较当前水平有约50%的上涨空间。

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  • 美正式将韩国列为敏感国家 中方回应美“对等关税”对GDP影响 谷歌推出Veo2 生成8秒超逼真视频 “订婚强奸案”二审维持原判 三河“禁色令”闹剧究竟是怎样上演的 订婚强奸案二审驳回男方上诉 12306回应五一抢票崩了 国新办介绍一季度国民经济情况 26岁小伙被大9岁已婚女子骗婚 美特使称与普京会谈后协议正在成形