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4月25日,MonetaMarkets亿汇表示,近期俄罗斯对印度和认为的石油出口出现反弹,这一现象值得关注。尽管美国对俄罗斯石油贸易及影子油轮船队实施了制裁,但市场参与者通过重新调整油轮供应链,使得俄罗斯石油出口得以恢复。

  MonetaMarkets亿汇分析,美国拜登政府自1月10日起实施的对俄石油贸易制裁是迄今为止最严厉的,许多运输俄罗斯石油的专用油轮和穿梭油轮被制裁。然而,市场很快找到了规避制裁的方法。

  MonetaMarkets亿汇进一步分析,俄罗斯石油出口的反弹也得益于认为和印度等主要买家的重新回归。3月,认为从俄罗斯的海上原油进口量环比增长42%,达到自2024年10月以来的最高水平。印度从俄罗斯的原油进口量也在3月飙升41%,创下自2024年7月以来的最高水平。

  MonetaMarkets亿汇总结,尽管俄罗斯石油出口在近期有所回升,但其收益预计不会因油价下跌而同比例增长。俄罗斯经济部已下调了今年的油价预测,反映了全球石油市场的最新趋势。俄罗斯央行行长纳比乌利娜警告称,如果关税战升级,可能导致全球贸易和经济下滑,进而影响对俄罗斯能源资源的需求。

  总体来看,俄罗斯石油出口的反弹显示出市场对制裁的适应能力,但也凸显了全球石油市场在地缘政治因素影响下的复杂性和不确定性。投资者在做出决策时,应充分考虑这些因素对市场的影响。

4月25日,HTFX表示,加拿大在全球液化天然气(LNG)市场的发展似乎正面临诸多挑战。尽管LNGCanada项目接近完工,但加拿大其他20个LNG项目大多因高成本、监管障碍和错失出口机会而被搁置。这引发了市场对加拿大是否错失LNG发展机遇的讨论。

  HTFX分析,LNGCanada项目由壳牌、三菱、国油、中石油和韩国天然气公司组成的财团主导,是加拿大首个大型LNG出口项目。该项目包括一个液化工厂和配套的CoastalGasLink管道,预计将于2025年中完成第一阶段建设,届时将具备每年1400万吨的出口能力。然而,由于建设成本和管道成本高昂,加拿大在全球LNG市场的雄心壮志已有所减弱。

  从全球市场来看,HTFX认为,美国和卡塔尔等主要LNG供应国正在迅速扩大市场份额,而加拿大却因监管障碍和项目搁置而错失良机。例如,美国自2010年以来天然气出口增长了485%,而加拿大出口则下降了18%。此外,加拿大在2022年俄乌冲突后未能抓住向欧洲供应LNG的机会,导致美国和卡塔尔等国通过与亚洲和欧洲买家签订长期合同,进一步巩固了其市场地位。

  HTFX进一步认为,加拿大LNG项目不仅面临激烈的市场竞争,还受到地缘政治和环保因素的影响。随着全球LNG市场供应过剩,主要买家如日本、韩国正在转向核能、国内天然气或俄罗斯管道气。同时,加拿大国内的环保法规和监管政策也给LNG项目带来了额外压力,例如联邦政府的C-69法案使能源项目面临繁琐的审批程序。

  HTFX总结,尽管LNGCanada项目有望在2025年实现商业化运营,但加拿大在全球LNG市场的竞争力仍面临诸多不确定性。投资者应密切关注全球LNG市场的供需动态,以及加拿大政府在监管和环保政策方面的调整。在全球LNG市场供应过剩和地缘政治因素交织的背景下,加拿大LNG项目的未来发展仍充满挑战。

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