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CCMN国际市场评述:今日伦铝高位回落,LME三个月北京时间15:01报于2378美元/吨,较上一交易日结算价跌10美元/吨,跌幅0.42%。

长江铝业网国内市场:今日沪铝主力月2506合约,开盘价报19550元/吨,盘中最高19725元/吨,最低19505元/吨,昨日结算19570元/吨,尾盘收至19645元/吨,涨75元,涨幅0.38%;沪铝主力月2506合约全天成交量147942手增加7211手,持仓量218124手减少2802手。

今日沪铝主力2506合约震荡上行,核心支撑来自供需两端与政策预期。美联储主席鲍威尔鹰派表态戳破救市幻想,美股重挫但美元美债同步走弱,金属市场获部分托举;国内一季度数据超预期增长,叠加关税压力下后续新的增量政策仍有望出台,国内宏观环境维持偏好。基本面韧性较强,铝市供应增速受限叠加库存持续去化夯实底部,需求端受益于跌价刺激及旺季效应,新订单回升与采购加码形成共振。短期铝价在基本面与政策预期双轮驱动下,反弹窗口或已开启。

CCMN现货市场评述:今日长江现货成交价格19780-19820元/吨,涨120元,升水15-升水55,涨15元;广东现货19770-19820元/吨,涨140元,升水5-升水55,涨35元;上海地区19770-19810元/吨,涨120元,升水5-升水45,涨15元。

现货市场平稳向好,库存加速去化及到货偏紧,支撑现货贴水转升水。持货商亦重拾挺价信心,普遍采取稳价惜售策略,市场流动性趋于收紧。下游受大户追涨补货带动,日内采买积极性上升,叠加投机性需求增强,局部时段出现供不应求的紧张局面。后段盘面维持强势,持货商稳价惜售,市场仍有零星买家继续追涨操作,但多数倾向低价,导致交易量受限。

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  近期,关税扰动下全球股市剧烈波动,A股则在稳市组合拳呵护下逐渐企稳,科创板更是显现出“急先锋”的特征。Wind数据显示,截至4月14日,科创100指数自4月8日以来反弹上涨12.79%,同期沪深300涨幅仅4.73%。

  在国家大力支持科技创新的战略背景下,科创板投资潜力正在加大释放。正在发行中的长城上证科创板100指数增强型证券投资基金(A类:023446;C类:023447),或为投资者布局科技板块提供了优质工具。

  科创100:硬科技中盘成长股的典型代表

  科创板自诞生之初便肩负着“科技自立自强”的战略使命,而科创100指数则是科创板的中坚力量代表,从科创板中筛选市值中等、流动性优异的100家企业,汇聚了一批成长潜力足的“科创黑马”企业。

  从产业分布看,Wind数据显示,科创100指数高度聚焦半导体、IT服务、生物医药、新能源等前沿领域,成分股中超50%为“专精特新”企业,研发费用占比高达20%,技术人员比例超38%,专利数量达5万余项。这些数据远超远超科创综指、创业板指等主流宽基指数,印证了其“硬核科技”底色。

  在“高研发投入-技术突破-业绩兑现”正向逻辑循环下,科创100指数成份股公司也展现出较好的盈利能力。从去年三季度财报数据看,指数成份股企业的营收增速、净利率增速达7.21%、11.40%,增长前景广阔。(数据来源:WIND,截至2024.9.30。)

  指数增强:捕捉科创100超额的强力抓手

  “展望后市,以DeepSeek为代表的国产创新科技不断崛起,中国资产再定价将经历一个长期过程,科技板块或将成为市场中长期投资主线,科创100指数有望持续受益。”在长城上证科创板100指数增强拟任基金经理雷俊看来,当前时点或是布局科创100指数的合适时机,具备三重逻辑支撑:

  首先,政策红利释放。关税风波倒逼国产替代提速,半导体设备、工业软件、生物医药等领域迎来政策密集支持。科创100成分股作为细分赛道龙头,有望直接受益于财税优惠、研发补贴、市场准入等政策倾斜。其次,产业周期反转。全球半导体库存周期见底、AI算力需求爆发、创新药出海加速,科创100覆盖的硬科技赛道正处于新一轮周期启动的前夜。再次,估值性价比凸显。Wind数据显示,截至2025年2月,科创100指数平均市值208亿元,中位数仅156亿元,相较于科创50指数745亿元的平均市值,成长空间更具想象力,且当前成分股动态市盈率处于相对较低水平。

  在投资策略上,雷俊认为,对于科创100这类成长型指数,指增策略的协同效应可能会更强。原因在于,主动增强策略通过量化工具优化投资组合,既能保留成长股的贝塔收益,又能动态捕捉市场变化,有望实现较好的投资收益作用。

  长城上证科创板100指数增强便是以科创100指数为跟踪标的,在帮助投资者紧跟指数beta行情的基础上,还利用多因子模型、人工智能模型等进行增强投资,通过筛选优质上市公司,优化投资组合的构成及权重,力争获得超越标的指数的alpha收益。

  风险提示:基金有风险,投资须谨慎。请投资者全面认识本基金的风险特征,听取销售机构的适当性意见,根据自身风险承受能力,在详细阅读《基金合同》、《招募说明书》等信息披露文件的基础上,谨慎投资。本基金经管理人评估风险等级R4-中高风险,适合偏好C4-积极型及以上客户,具体风险等级以代销机构为准。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产,但不保证本基金一定盈利,也不保证最低收益。我国基金运作时间较短,不能反映股市、债市发展的所有阶段,基金的过往业绩及净值高低并不预示其未来业绩表现,基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成本基金业绩表现的保证。在做出投资决策后,基金运营状况与基金净值变化引致的投资风险,由投资人自行负担。投资者进行投资时,应严格遵守反洗钱相关法规的规定,切实履行反洗钱义务。本投资观点仅代表当时观点,今后可能发生改变,仅供参考,并不构成对投资者实质性的投资建议或长城基金最终的投资观点。本公司不就任何依赖本文观点作出的投资行为承担责任。本基金可投资于境外证券,除了需要承担与境内证券投资基金类似的市场波动风险等一般投资风险之外,本基金还面临汇率风险等境外证券市场投资所面临的特别投资风险。本资料仅为宣传用品,不作为任何法律文件。

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