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  转自:北京商报

  虽然A股上市公司整体业绩向好,但个别个股业绩也有爆雷的可能,尤其随着年报季进入披露尾声,业绩滑坡的年报比例可能会有所增加。投资者应警惕相关个股风险,可以选择业绩已经公布的白马股买入或甄选风险较小的公司持有。

  已披露的A股公司整体呈现出营收、净利润双增长的向好态势。但根据以往的经验,少数个股的业绩风险也在悄然逼近。随着披露截止日临近,个别“拖延症”晚期的绩差公司正面临最后通牒,它们可能存在的业绩爆雷风险值得引起投资者的高度关注。投资者需要擦亮双眼,谨慎看待业绩不佳公司的年报风险。

  对于尚未公布年报的上市公司,投资者可以结合同行业公司的业绩表现进行预判,如果同行业上市公司已经披露的年报情况多数不乐观,则需要提高警惕。此外,还可以结合个股的二级市场走势来加以判断,如果在年报披露前股价持续弱势,则可能说明市场资金多数对其年报业绩存消极预期。

  在不确定性加剧的市场环境下,业绩确定性强的白马股成为资金共识。这些白马股具有三大安全边际。首先,主营业务清晰,非经常性损益占比较低。其次,净利润稳定,现金流充沛。此外,研发投入稳定,能够保证公司业绩不断增长,并保持行业领先地位。

  对于追求稳健收益的投资者,可以关注上市公司年报业绩预告来规避一定的年报风险。多数公司的年报最终数据都会在年报预告的业绩范围之内,如果投资者持有的股票尚未公布年报,投资者可以根据年报业绩预告初步判断公司爆雷的可能性,如果认为公司业绩存在爆雷的可能,则可以考虑暂时换股躲避相关风险。

  随着全面注册制深入推进,A股市场生态已发生根本性改变,炒小炒差已经不再是主流。过去那种乌鸦变凤凰的炒作逻辑日渐式微,业绩持续兑现能力成为估值核心锚点。投资者需建立“避雷”意识,对存在大额商誉、关联交易复杂、审计意见存疑的公司保持警惕。

  相比之下,已经公布符合预期年报的上市公司,或者已经公布年度业绩快报的上市公司,股价已经进入到相对安全的区域。短期暂时不会出现业绩爆雷的担忧,资金也会向着其中的优质公司流动。

  对于普通投资者来说,如果想从一家公司的历史定期报告以及简短的业绩预告中获得上市公司可能存在的风险点并不容易,对此或有三种方法值得借鉴。一是直接躲避尚未公布年报的上市公司,二是通过购买基金把专业问题交给专家解决,三是分散持有多家尚未公布年报的公司,以分散少数公司业绩爆雷的风险。

  实际上,年报收官战既是风险的出清时刻,也是价值的发现之旅。当市场完成这轮压力测试后,真正的核心资产终将脱颖而出。

  北京商报评论员 周科竞

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