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日前,在深交所主板上市的分众传媒信息技术股份有限公司(以下简称“分众传媒”)发布公告称,公司拟发行股份及支付现金购买张继学、百度在线网络技术(北京)有限公司等50名交易对方合计持有的成都新潮传媒集团股份有限公司(以下简称“新潮传媒”)100%的股份。本次交易完成后,新潮传媒将成为分众传媒的全资子公司。

长期以来,电梯媒体(以下简称“梯媒”)凭借封闭场景、高频触达和强制观看的特点,成为品牌广告的核心投放渠道。因为资源的稀缺性,在国内梯媒行业呈现“分众+新潮”双寡头格局。业内人士指出,如果此次并购顺利完成,百亿元规模的国内梯媒江湖将由分众传媒“一统天下”。分众传媒收购新潮传媒,也标志着国内梯媒行业将从“野蛮扩张”进入“精耕细作”时代。

高速增长的“现金奶牛”

梯媒行业是中国广告市场中增长最快的细分领域之一。根据中国广告业协会发布的数据,2023年中国楼宇电梯广告市场规模已达139.1亿元,同比增长21.5%;2024年预计市场规模超过150亿元,2025年有望突破200亿元。2024年至2026年,梯媒市场规模年均复合增长率约16.7%,远高于传统广告。而且,由于三、四线城市及社区场景覆盖率不足50%,未来有望成为增长新蓝海。

据公开资料,分众传媒诞生于2003年,是国内电梯媒体广告模式的开创者,2005年成为首家在纳斯达克上市的中国广告传媒股。2015年分众传媒借壳七喜股份回归A股,成为中国梯媒第一股。分众传媒从一开始就重点布局一线城市CBD区域。

相比之下,晚了4年才出道的成都新潮传媒集团股份有限公司,则选择定位在“社区”,投入80亿元资金,安装200万部电梯智能屏,打造覆盖1亿家庭3亿人群的社区数字化媒体平台,在分众传媒还未渗透到的领域,展开差异化竞争。据其官网资料,截至目前,新潮传媒已在全国超200个城市有70万部电梯智能屏,每天覆盖45000个社区1.8亿中产家庭人群,已经服务了23000多个客户。

众所周知,2017年以来,国内广告行业进入下行周期里,但从广告市场各细分领域刊例花费同比变化情况来看,梯媒是唯一持续同比正增长的细分领域。在资本市场,投资者把梯媒公司看成可以源源不断带来稳定现金流的“奶牛”。

合并之后能否“1+1>2”

目前,新潮传媒有74万块智能屏,分众传媒自己也有50多万块,两者合并后,智能屏数量将达到130万块,规模效应相当明显。

同时,分众传媒创始人兼董事长江南春表示,此次并购完成后,通过整合双方点位资源将进一步扩大媒体覆盖密度,尤其在低线城市和社区场景补足长尾市场,双方的资源整合将产生显著的协同效应,从“重复投入”到“协同共生”。

有广告业专家指出,收购的主要意义在于扩大分众的用户覆盖规模,扩大了地盘。但行业竞争格局不会因此改变。价格战是市场常态,不会因单一并购而终止。原因也很简单,广告市场大、品类多,中国广告协会发布的《2024年全球及中国户外广告市场报告》显示,中国广告市场2024年规模达1.5万亿元,其中,线下广告只有约1437.1亿元。而梯媒广告只是户外广告市场里的一部分,线下广告中户外广告占比约59.3%。再细分到户外广告市场,根据中国广告协会的数据,目前分众户外广告市占率是14.5%,新潮是2.7%,就算两家合并加起来,在户外广告市占率也仅占17.2%。

过去十年,分众传媒与新潮传媒的价格战导致行业毛利率从68%下滑至36%,而并购后恶性竞争终结,分众传媒对广告主的议价能力显著增强。申万证券的调研报告预计,合并之后,广告单价将回升10%至15%,毛利率从36%修复至45%至50%。新潮传媒的单屏收入若从2700元提升至分众水平(约6000元),可贡献11亿元利润,直接增厚分众传媒公司的市值。

新潮传媒董事长张继学也表示,“如果用83亿元收购新潮,那算是贱卖。但是如果是用分众传媒的股票去换,那就不一定了”。可见,作为分众传媒最大的竞争对手,新潮传媒认为两家合并是“1+1>2”。

“二房东”的未来在哪里

梯媒的商业模式,是向上游的物业公司签署租赁协议,获取点位广告权,然后通过海报或者电视等方式,向下游广告主收取广告费,本质是一个“二房东”生意。目前,电梯媒体行业有几百家参与者,但真正能在全国范围内开展业务的极少。新进入者想要抢占市场份额,只能高价从物业手中抢资源。但上游物业公司比较分散,并且签约到期的时间各不相同,一旦开打价格战,只能持续“烧钱”。而分众传媒则凭借已有的业务以及利润抵御新进入者的竞争。新潮传媒最近几年的财务数据显示,尽管新潮传媒从京东、百度等股东手中融资80多亿元,但成立这么多年,仍然处于亏损状态。

江南春指出,分众未来的发展主要是向下、向外、向AI。向下方面,本次收购新潮,直接将新潮74万点位数量收入囊中,分众通过广告主资源整合以及数字赋能,这部分新增加的点位有望贡献“10亿+”的利润。向外方面,江南春的愿景就是将分众的商业模式出海复制,在海外再打造一个同等规模的分众。向AI方面,就是通过AI技术叠加智能屏设备,为广大的中小客户提供更精致的服务,实现广告的精准分发。

新潮传媒董事长张继学也表示,中国全年广告市场规模1.4万亿元,其中户外广告有800多亿元,电梯广告只有不到200亿元,未来的发展空间巨大。未来的电梯广告将会从传统的品牌模式,升级为品牌加流量协同的数字化模式。目前电梯广告一年合作的客户不到1万个,未来在数字化户外广告时代,随着AI和算法的赋能,一年会有超过10万个中小企业平等地享受到中国电梯媒体数字化带来的流量红利。

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