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  来源:华尔街见闻

  韩国海关总署数据显示,4月前20天(经工作日调整后),韩国对外出口额同比下滑5.2%,这与3月份的5.5%增长形成鲜明对比。分国别来看,4月前20天,韩国对美国和中国的出口分别下滑14.3%和3.4%,而对欧盟的出口则增长13.8%。

  韩国4月贸易数据首次曝光了特朗普激进保护主义政策对出口导向型经济体的实质性冲击。

  韩国海关总署周一公布的数据显示,4月前20天(经工作日调整后),韩国对外出口额同比下滑5.2%,这与3月份的5.5%增长形成鲜明对比。这一数据反映了美国贸易保护主义政策可能引发的全球供应链断裂风险,韩国作为“金丝雀”敲响了全球出口型经济体可能面临的警钟。

  分国别来看,4月前20天,韩国对美国和中国的出口分别下滑14.3%和3.4%,而对欧盟的出口则增长13.8%。从品类来看,同期韩国汽车出口同比下降6.5%,半导体出口则增长10.7%。钢铁出口下降8.7%,油品销售暴跌22%。

  关税风暴引发全球连锁反应

  综合央视报道,在3月份提高金属进口关税后,特朗普本月早些时候又对汽车进口征收25%的关税,对所有其他进口商品征收10%的关税。特朗普的贸易保护主义政策对韩国这类出口驱动型经济体构成的风险。

  ING经济学家MinJooKang在一份报告中表示:

  央行表示,由于美国贸易政策和国内政治不确定性的影响,增长比预期更为疲软,并警告称经济可能在第一季度出现负增长。

  近日,亚信科技与天津联通联合开发的“AI大模型+智能体”智能查号系统在114业务场景完成首个尾号割接,标志着全国通信行业首个基于AI大模型技术的智能查号业务正式投入运营,成功破解传统人工服务模式成本高的难题,以“全国首个”的标杆姿态,为通信行业智能化转型提供了“天津样本”。

  “小切口”撬动“大突破”

  针对传统114查号业务人工成本高、多系统协同复杂等核心痛点,亚信科技与天津联通运营支撑中心专项攻坚团队紧密协作,聚焦“大模型智能体技术垂直场景应用”,深度融合Qwen大模型、检索增强生成(RAG)和传统话务平台,创新构建基于“数据驱动-流程优化-知识赋能”的大模型智能语音客服架构,实现高效的替代人工查号。

  此系统在国内首创了语音查号多智能体协同架构,成功构建“AI大模型+智能体”双引擎架构,能按照业务场景和规则,调用Qwen大模型,API接口等工具,按业务流程拟人化查号,实现查号业务从“人工接听”到“智能交互”的核心能力跃迁。

  试运营期间,系统过滤率超过80%,远超业界平均水平,达到全国领先。该系统以114业务的“小切口”实现智能服务的“大突破”,为通信行业数智化转型提供可复制的实践样本。

  亚信科技:大模型体系化交付

  亚信科技在大模型交付业务领域起步早、落地快。

  2024年上半年,亚信科技发布了“渊思”行业大模型产品系列,面向千行百业,聚焦“平台、模型、工具”三个层面建立的通用人工智能与行业认知增强一体化的行业大模型产品体系。该产品体系包括2个平台,即通用人工智能与认知增强平台(TechnologyAugmentedCognitionMaaS,简称TACMaaS)和智能体平台(AIAgentPlatform,简称AAP)+ 5个行业专属大模型 + N个适配特定应用场景的认知增强工具,覆盖从大模型研发到应用落地生命周期全流程,助力企业高效完成一站式智能转型,已在通信、政务、能源等20多个重点行业实现规模落地,为行业数智化转型打造AI原生应用。

  亚信科技与国内头部云计算和大模型厂商建立了长期战略合作关系,通过200余个项目积累,打造了具备核心竞争力的交付工具集合,并拥有经验丰富的专业团队,形成“一套方法论+一组工具集+一支专业团队”的亚信科技特色大模型交付体系,致力于成为国内大模型交付的头部企业。

  关于亚信科技

  亚信科技控股有限公司(简称:亚信科技,股票代码:01675.HK)始于1993年,2018年12月19日成功在香港联交所主板上市,是领先的软硬件产品、解决方案和服务提供商,领先的数智化全栈能力提供商。亚信科技依托咨询规划、产品研发、实施交付、系统集成、智慧决策、数据运营和客户服务等数智化核心能力,打造客户服务闭环,为通信、政务、能源、交通、广电、邮政等行业客户提供端到端的全链路数智化转型服务。

  亚信科技坚持“一巩固、三发展”战略,高质量巩固BSS市场的领导地位,高速度发展5GOSS网络智能化、DSaaS数字化运营、垂直行业和企业上云等新兴业务。公司积极拥抱5G、云计算、大数据、AI、物联网等先进的技术,形成了云网、数智、IT三大产品体系。

  亚信科技始终致力于将5G、云计算、AI、大数据和物联网等数智技术赋能至百行千业,与客戶共创数智价值。面向未来,公司将致力于成为最可信赖的数智价值创造者,并依托数智化全栈能力,创新客户价值,助推数字中国。

  为吸引大型外资油气企业,印度对独立时期的立法进行了彻底改革,但成果要到本世纪30年代才能真正见效,未来五年天然气产量仅小幅增长,这将使印度这个能源匮乏的国家更加依赖进口。

  3月宣布的《油田法》修正案可能会使全球油气巨头更多参与印度的勘探和开采行业,而该行业的外资参与历来有限。不过,虽然从长远看,改革有望减少对进口的依赖,但在2030年之前,改革对天然气生产的影响不大。

  该法案可追溯到1948年,即印度独立后第二年,法案对石油和天然气勘探与开采的许可证发放和租赁作出了规定。市场普遍认为法案条款不足以支持印度上游部门所需投资。此次改革解决了几个长期存在的问题,如加快环境和土地许可发放,确保租赁条款稳定,以及对违规行为实施经济处罚而非监禁。

  监管不确定性制约了外资参与印度的勘探和开采行业

  在2025年印度能源周上,国有企业与全球油气企业宣布了近期合作,这凸显了印度对增加外资参与的推动。虽然3月的改革并没有为外资生产商提供直接的财政激励,但创造了一个更有利、更有竞争力的营商环境,为印度国有企业和外资企业创造了公平的竞争环境。

  2024年,印度天然气产量与上年持平,据报告预测,2024-2030年产量仅小幅增长45亿立方米,即12%,缺乏新油田投产是此时期产量增长有限的一个关键原因。大部分新增产量预计来自OilandNaturalGasCorp运营的现有油气田。相比之下,同期天然气消费量预计将增加210亿立方米,从而进一步增加对液化天然气(LNG)进口的依赖。

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