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美国总统特朗普周一继续对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔进行口头抨击,原因是美联储目前拒绝进一步降息。这一表态引发金融市场动荡,投资者日益担忧特朗普可能最终会试图罢免这位美联储主席。

那么,特朗普能解雇鲍威尔吗?

特朗普是否有权力这样做尚不清楚。

1913年制定美联储的《联邦储备法》规定,由总统任命并经参议院确认、任期为14年的美联储理事会成员,只能因“正当理由”被免职——长期以来,这被认为是指行为不端,而非政策分歧。

话虽如此,该法律在描述美联储主席(七名理事之一)的四年任期时,并未提及免职限制。

这会是前所未有的情况吗?

目前没有直接的法律先例,因为此前没有总统曾试图解雇美联储主席。然而,现在有一些关于特朗普解雇其他不相关联邦委员会和机构成员的诉讼正在法院审理中,这些诉讼被视为可能的参考,以判断特朗普是否拥有这种权力。其中一起案件目前正在最高法院待审,任何解雇鲍威尔的企图几乎肯定最终会在最高法院审理。

从实际角度来看,解雇鲍威尔意味着什么?

这在很大程度上取决于特朗普选择如何“解雇”这位美联储主席。

正如他的前任们一样,鲍威尔担任着三个角色——美联储系统主席、理事会成员以及美联储设定利率的联邦公开市场委员会主席。

仅解除美联储主席职务:

如果特朗普试图仅免去鲍威尔美联储系统主席的职务,鲍威尔可以继续担任理事,直到2028年1月底任期届满。下一个预定的理事会空缺要到2026年1月才会出现,在此期间,特朗普只能选择提名其他现任理事之一担任主席。其他六名理事中有两名是特朗普在第一任期内任命的——克里斯托弗・沃勒和米歇尔・鲍曼理事,特朗普最近提名鲍曼担任银行监管副主席。和鲍威尔一样,他们两人都谈到了美联储独立性的重要性,所以不清楚他们两人中是否有谁会立即按照特朗普的意愿降息。

解除FOMC主席职务:

特朗普对谁担任FOMC主席都没有直接控制权。该委员会主席由其12名成员每年选举产生——七名理事、纽约联储主席以及其他地区联储主席中的四名,他们轮流在委员会任职。

按照惯例,FOMC选择美联储主席担任主席,纽约联储主席担任副主席。然而,从理论上讲,他们可以选择任何成员,包括如果鲍威尔仍然是理事的话,也可以选他。

罢免理事职务:

免去鲍威尔理事的职务影响最大。如果这一举措能经受住法律挑战,特朗普将同时有一个理事会空缺和一个主席空缺来由自己选择的提名人填补。这也将为特朗普随意解雇其他理事打开大门,以便他建立一个他认为符合自己意愿的更广泛的美联储领导层。

鲍威尔能够对此提出质疑吗?

如果发生这种情况,鲍威尔有资格在联邦法院对自己被解雇提出质疑,但他必须用个人资源来资助这一行动。作为一名律师和前私募股权负责人,他有个人财富来资助这样的行动。

鲍威尔多次表示,他认为根据法律,他不能被免职,并且最近还表示,他认为目前正在法院审理的关于特朗普解雇其他独立联邦委员会和机构成员的案件不适用于美联储。

这真的会发生吗?

上周有报道称,特朗普已讨论解雇鲍威尔,并由2006年至2011年担任美联储理事的凯文·沃什接替他。该报道称,沃什建议不要这样做,他主张特朗普应该允许鲍威尔留任,直到2026年5月美联储主席任期届满。

同样在上周,白宫经济顾问凯文·哈塞特也被视为鲍威尔的潜在替代者,他表示,此事是政府内部正在研究的问题。

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