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万物的发展和成败,看似漫无头绪,实质上无不受内在规律的支配,K线也如此。一个人一张脸,一只股一幅图,这幅图里浓缩了无数投资者的喜、怒、哀、乐,也影响着无数投资者的交易和得失,所以投资者不得不信它、读它、用它,甚至有庄家竭尽全力去操纵它、改变它。因为,同样的一幅K线图,有人判断未来市场股价会上涨,有人认为后市股价要下跌,所以这个市场就变得复杂起来。

可是,任何技术分析方法都离不开K线,无论是技术指标还是趋势分析,或者是技术形态和波浪图形,都与K线有关。但,有的投资者往往只是简单地在K线图中寻找标准的形态组合,主观地推断行情的走势,从而陷入误判行情的困惑。无疑,他们在使用K线理论时,没有与中国资本市场特有的运行规律结合起来分析,结果适得其反。

这里就帮助投资者及时读懂K线语言,领悟盘面信息,把握市场规律,摸准主力意图,精确地把握买卖点,最终从市场上获得应有的收益。

第一种形态:倒三阳

“倒三阳”最典型的特征就是在股价下跌的过程中,连续跳出三根阳线,且每根阳线的收盘价均低于前一交易日的收盘价。也正是因为这种特点,它才被形象地称为“倒三阳”(图1-1)。

“倒三阳”一般出现在有庄家身影的股票中,从本质上说,这是庄家为了顺利出货而营造的假象。很多股民因为不了解这种组合的特征的含义,看到连续出现的阳线就认为股价即将企稳,从而盲目做多,导致自己“中招”受损。因此,如果在实战中遇到这种组合,一定不要被阳线所迷惑,此时最佳的应对策略就是卖出手中的股票,在场外观望。

例如,深天马A(股票代码:000050)经历了一段时间的多空双方激烈较量后,在下行中连续出现三个阳线,形成“倒三阳”组合,造成该股即将回暖的假象(图1-2),从图中可以看到,这种假象的别后其实是股价的持续下滑,如果股民朋友看到这三根阳线就盲目介入的话,后市就将遭受较大的损失。

当下跌组合出现后,意味着股价将要进入下跌趋势,股民朋友们如果不及时止损或盲目抄底,就会令自己陷于万劫不复的境地。因此,在面对下跌组合时,要及时离场并尽量保持看空的思维,谨慎操作。

第二种形态:乌云盖顶

如果股价在前一个交易日收出一根阳线,第二个交易日又出现高开低走,形成一根比较大的阴线,并且还跌穿了前一个交易日的阳线的三分之一,成交量也配合放大,那么就可以说形成了“乌云盖顶”组合,它的出现意味着后市走势将不容乐观(图2-1)。

在K线组合中,“乌云盖顶”是一种非常典型的见顶组合,当遇到该组合时,可参考以下几点:

(1)如果在收出阳线后的第二个交易日中,阴线实体的收盘价向下插入前一个阳线实体的程度越深,那么该组合构成股价运动顶部的概率就越大。

(2)如果第二个交易日阴线实体的开盘价比某一个重要的阻力位高,但是最终又没有突破它,这种现象很可能预示着多方的力量已经相形见绌,无法再继续将升势维持下去。

(3)如果在第二个交易日开盘的时候,成交量变得非常大,很可能意味着更多的股民已经进场。但是随后空头就开始了抛售行为,令急于进场的股民骑虎难下。

例如,飞乐音响(股票代码:600651)的股价在经过一段大幅上涨后,突然在高位形成一根高开低走的大阴线,并跌穿了前一个交易日阳线的三分之一,形成了“乌云盖顶”组合,反转信号异常明显,此时该股最高价为7.34元。该组合出现后,该股股价一路下跌至5.22元(图2-2)。

第三种形态:绵绵阴跌

所谓“绵绵阴跌”是指股价以不断收小K线的形式(一般不少于8根K线)向下运行,其中又以小阴线居多,中间有时会夹杂着一些小阳线。这种K线组合犹如春雨一般,连绵不断,乍看上去,每天的跌幅都不是很大,但累积起来,却又让股民笑不出来,有时甚至达到超长期的下跌(图3-1)。

股市中有一句话:“不怕急跌、大跌,就怕阴跌。”股价一旦阴跌,下跌周期往往无法预测,且对多方的杀伤力极大。因此,在遇到这种“绵绵阴跌”组合时,要保持高度警惕,持股的股民最好及时止损,避免更大的损失;正在观望的股民也不要盲目介入。

例如,三一重工(股票代码:600031)出现了长期持久的阴跌走势。该股股价最高还在7.53元,而半年内,该股股价已下跌至4.81元,跌幅达到了36.12%。这种情况恰恰体现了“绵绵阴跌”的恐怖威力(图3-2)。

最后,即使不慎“被套”了,投资者也不必恐慌。市场中谁没被套牢过呢?关键是如何解套。

(1)以快刀斩乱麻的方式停损了结,即将所持股票全盘卖出,以免股价继续下跌而遭受更大的损失。采取这种解套策略主要适合于以投机为目的的短期投资者,或者是持有劣质股票的投资者。因为处于跌势的空头市场中,持有品质较差的股票的时间越长,给投资者带来的损失也将越大。

(2)弃弱择强,换股操作,即忍痛将手中弱势股抛出,换进市场中刚刚发动的强势股,以期通过涨升的强势股的获利,来弥补其套牢所受的损失。这种解套策略适合在发现所持股已为明显弱势股,短期内难有翻身机会时采用。

(3)采用拨档子的方式进行操作,即先停损了结,然后在较低的价位时予以补进,以减轻或轧平上档解套的损失。

(4)采取向下摊平的操作方法,即随股价下挫幅度扩增反而加码买进,从而摊低购股成本,以待股价回升获利。但采取此项做法,必须以确认整体投资环境尚未变坏,股市并无由多头市场转入空头市场的情况发生为前提,否则,极易陷入窘境。

(5)采取以不变应万变的“不卖不赔”方法。在股票被套牢后,只要尚未脱手,就不能认定投资者已亏血本。如果手中所持股票均为品质良好的绩优股,且整体投资环境尚未恶化,股市走势仍未脱离多头市场,则大可不必为一时套牢而惊慌失措,此时应采取的方法不是将套牢股票卖出,而是持有股票以不变应万变,静待股价回升解套之时。

(转自:金融小博士)

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