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财联社4月26日讯(编辑潇湘)特朗普可能又创下了一个“尴尬”的“百日执政”新纪录……

根据可追溯至尼克松时代(当时美国放弃金本位制、转向自由浮动汇率时期)的数据显示,美元指数有望创下半个多世纪以来美国总统任期头100天的最差表现。

统计显示,从1月20日特朗普重返白宫到4月25日,美元指数已累计下跌了近9%,料将创下1973年(尼克松开启第二任期之年)以来总统任期前100天的最大跌幅。

近几十年来,在美国总统上任的头100天,外汇市场上一直以美元走强为典型标志,从1973年尼克松开始第二个任期到2021年拜登上任,总统执政头百天的美元平均回报率接近了0.9%。

但在今年,特朗普显然成为了美元多头的噩梦——其反复无常的关税政策和对美联储独立性的恐吓威胁,促使投资者大量抛售美元资产,在加剧美元跌势同时也推高了黄金及其他非美货币汇率。

自特朗普再次就任以来,欧元、瑞郎和日元兑美元汇率涨幅均超过了8%。

事实上,回顾过去50多年的历史,美元在总统任期头百天跌幅,与眼下最为接近的可能就是1973年的“尼克松冲击”之时。

1971年8月,美国尼克松政府宣布放弃“金本位制”,实行黄金与美元比价的自由浮动之后,布雷顿森林体系正式解体。1973年3月因美元贬值,再次引发了欧洲抛售美元、抢购黄金的风潮。西欧和日本外汇市场不得不关闭了17天。经过磋商最后达成协议,西方国家最终放弃了固定汇率制,实行浮动汇率制。至此布雷顿森林货币体系完全崩溃,从此也开始了黄金非货币化的改革进程。

而近来全球抛售美元资产以及抢购黄金的浪潮,与当时显然也有颇多异曲同工之处。

蒙特利尔银行资产管理公司董事总经理BipanRai指出,美元作为全球储备货币的地位建立在对美国制度的信任、低贸易壁垒和可预测的外交政策之上。而如今,这些基础已出现明显松动,全球资产配置趋势正发生不利于美元的结构性转变。

特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔的评论——尤其是他威胁要解雇鲍威尔,近来也格外让投资者感到忧心,并加剧了对美联储独立性的担忧。即便特朗普本周态度已有所软化称,他无意解雇鲍威尔。

瑞银集团目前已经在不到两个月的时间里第二次下调了美元预期。该行分析师表示,美元的表现取决于中美贸易谈判的结果,而最近几周的贸易对峙显然没有取得太大进展。德意志银行本周也警告称,未来几年美元将出现结构性下跌趋势,这可能会使美元兑欧元跌至十多年来的最弱水平。

根据美国商品期货交易委员会数据,截至4月15日当周,对冲基金和资管机构持有的美元净空头头寸达100亿美元,创2024年10月以来最大看空规模。上述机构投机者正集体押注于美元将继续贬值。

专题:2025保险科技峰会:梁涛等出席

  峰会盛大启幕

  众安信科亮点环节引关注

  2025年4月25日,“2025保险科技峰会”在深圳市南山区召开,原银保监会副主席梁涛等重量级嘉宾出席开幕式并致辞,众安信科作为峰会独家战略合作伙伴现场参与,多家头部险企及科技平台代表齐聚,围绕“从互联网时代到AI时代,AI+保险的战略推进与应用创新”展开深度探讨。

  峰会现场,众安信科三箭齐发释放战略级动作——发布历时两年调研出品的最新AI赋能行业白皮书、揭牌‘AI+保险联合实验室’、正式启动‘AI+’战略合作,成为全场瞩目的焦点。

  《迈向智能驱动新纪元》白皮书发布

  全景解码AI赋能保险新路径

  众安信科在峰会上重磅发布《迈向智能驱动新纪元——大语言模型赋能金融保险行业的应用纵览与趋势展望》白皮书。这份由众安信科与众安金融科技研究院联袂打造的行业成果,深度聚焦“技术落地”与“业务价值”两大核心,以全链路指南形式,从战略规划到场景实操,多维度展现大语言模型在保险行业的颠覆式应用可能。

  图:白皮书核心亮点展示

  在技术层面,白皮书系统梳理了大模型技术跃迁路径与国产突破成果。业务场景层面,全景解码保险业务智能升级路径,覆盖智能客服、智能质检、营销助手、智能快赔、ChatBI、AI审计内控等全链条场景。生态层面,梳理垂直整合、横向扩展、生态共创等模式的金融保险行业智能生态系统战略雏形,倡导政企科共建共享数据驱动的基础设施体系,破解行业协同壁垒难题。

  这份白皮书不仅是众安信科多年实战经验的结晶,更是向行业抛出的“智能转型邀请函”。它以技术普惠为基石,以业务扎根为路径,以生态共创为未来,勾勒出保险行业从“人力驱动”向“智能驱动”跃迁的清晰蓝图,预示着一个由AI定义的保险新纪元正加速到来。

  众安信科CEO郁锋分享

  绘就双轮驱动的AI升级蓝图

  众安信科CEO郁锋在峰会上进行了分享。他指出,AI时代,保险行业面临着战略定位、商业模式和价值链重塑的几个关键问题。

  郁锋用真实的场景为在场观众呈现了AI在保险业务全流程的价值体现。在营销端,AI能够帮助保司实现7×24小时不间断贴心服务,投保成功用户权益推送领取率可达82%,重新定义了客户互动模式。理赔场景的技术突破更为显著,意健险理赔材料智能识别通过率提升至90%,最快15秒即可结案,将传统理赔转变为建立客户信任的关键触点。郁锋提出,众安信科愿意将这些业务实战经验赋能给更多业务伙伴。这背后的底气,来自众安信科一直以来坚持的“科技+服务”双轮驱动模式。

  图:郁锋正在分享众安信科的AI战略规划

  基于这一优势,众安信科与中移金科共建‘AI+保险联合实验室’,聚焦“大模型能力共建、产品全链路贯通、技术生态构建”的目标开展研究:第一,构建保险行业大数据基座,通过深挖运营商与保险场景结合数据,形成有效保险营销数据资产和标签资产,赋能保险业务场景高质量转化。第二,大模型与知识图谱技术结合,代替传统语言处理技术,面对实际保险营销场景下的高复杂度问题,深入探查用户的真实意图,全面提升金融领域营销的精准性。第三,整合行业Knowhow和保险场景,联合打造保险质检、顾问、理赔、精算等行业垂类AI智能体。“从营销到理赔,从前台到后台,AI正在驱动一场深刻的保险服务革命。这场变革才刚刚开始,未来的竞争是生态的竞争,”郁锋表示,“只有开放合作,才能让AI创造更大价值。”

  ‘AI+’战略合作正式启动

  暨‘AI+保险联合实验室’揭牌

  继白皮书发布后,‘AI+’战略合作正式宣告启动,众安信科与中移金科携手众安保险、招商仁和人寿、东方嘉富人寿、众惠相互、长江财险、中华财险、安诚保险、财信人寿、国任保险、亚太财险、民生人寿、中意财险、东吴财险、阿里云、小康人寿、安盛天平、中煤财险、爱和谊财险、北部湾保险、利宝保险、现代保险等十余家头部险企与科技平台开启战略合作,共享技术成果与业务最佳实践、联合攻关行业共性难题,让AI真正融入保险业务的“毛细血管”,重塑服务模式与价值逻辑。

  与此同时,众安信科与中移金科也在现场完成了‘AI+保险联合实验室’的正式揭牌,这标志着双方战略合作进入实质性落地阶段,未来将加速为行业提供可复制、可推广的AI解决方案,并开放技术成果,推动建立行业标准,共同培育保险科技生态。

  图:‘AI+’战略合作启动仪式暨‘AI+保险联合实验室’揭牌

  中移金科副总经理孙健先生,对‘AI+保险联合实验室’的成立发表了感言。孙健表示:“金科公司将与众安信科携手以‘AI+保险联合实验室’为起点,共同推动行业智能化三大跃迁,实现从单点智能到全链路贯通,将AI深度嵌入保险核心领域,实现业务闭环智能协同;从工具赋能到生态共创,汇聚同业力量,共建智能营销新范式;从降本增效到普惠创新,依托AI技术让保险服务更透明、更个性化,惠及亿万用户,让科技温度触达每位客户。”

  图:中移金科副总经理孙健对‘AI+保险联合实验室’成立发表感言

  结语

  2025保险科技峰会期间,众安信科通过白皮书发布、‘AI+保险联合实验室’揭牌以及‘AI+’战略合作启动等多个关键动作,全面展现了在保险AI领域的技术储备、落地经验与生态号召力。从破解大模型应用成本难题,到打造覆盖全业务链的智能产品矩阵;从单点技术突破,到构建开放共享的行业生态,众安信科始终以“业务价值”为核心标尺,将技术创新转化为可感知、可衡量的商业成果。

  作为“科技驱动业务”的践行者,众安信科不仅为头部险企提供定制化AI解决方案,更通过轻量化产品与技术共享机制,助力中小机构跨越技术鸿沟。当AI技术真正融入保险行业的“毛细血管”,改变的不仅是效率与成本,更是整个行业的服务模式与价值创造逻辑。

  在智能化转型的关键窗口期,众安信科正以“做最好的业务赋能伙伴”为使命,用技术的确定性应对行业变革的不确定性。随着AI联合实验室研究成果的落地与战略合作的深化,众安信科将持续引领保险科技浪潮,推动行业迈向智能驱动的新纪元。

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