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红军beat it - 那些不容错过的精彩
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红军beat it - 那些不容错过的精彩

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中信金属4月24日晚间公告,2025年第一季度实现营业收入282.49亿元,同比增长5.28%;归属于上市公司股东的净利润5.71亿元,同比增长268.89%;基本每股收益0.1165元。

  央行网站消息,为保持银行体系流动性充裕,2025年4月25日(周五),中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元MLF操作,期限为1年期。

  4月有1000亿元MLF到期,3月末MLF余额41570亿元,因此在4月25日操作后,MLF余额增加5000亿元至46570亿元。

  记者注意到,MLF已连续两月净投放,相对于3月净投放630亿元,4月净投放5000亿元,幅度明显增加。

  中信证券首席经济学家明明团队在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时指出,4月MLF净投放规模是2023年12月以来的最高水准。不再具备政策利率属性的MLF作为常规流动性工具,用以释放中长期流动性。

  自今年3月起,MLF操作由单一价位中标调整为多重价位中标(即美式招标),回归流动性投放工具定位,与其他各期限工具一同构成央行流动性工具体系。

  明明团队指出,MLF回归常规流动性工具定位后,需关注买断式逆回购净投放情况。3月MLF回归超额续作且净投放630亿元,而4月MLF操作延续了超额续作,净投放规模放量至5000亿元,是2023年12月以来的最高水准。不再具备政策利率属性的MLF作为常规流动性工具,用以释放中长期流动性。

  明明团队进一步指出,另一方面,4月买断式逆回购到期规模较大,共有1.2万亿元的3M以及5000亿元的6M买断式逆回购到期,MLF本次加大投放规模也可能是为了配合对冲买断式逆回购的到期压力。往后看,仍需关注4月买断式逆回购的净投放情况。

  值得注意的是,政府债供给高峰临近,明明团队认为,宽货币发力维护流动性充裕。4月以来资金面相对宽松,但下周劳动节假期将至,资金可能面临一定的跨节压力。另一方面,当下超长期特别国债和注资特别国债发行计划已经公布,且第一批特别国债的发行在4月24日已经落地。往后看,预计5月政府债供给压力或加大,其中5Y、7Y注资国债各有一支发行,有2支30Y特别国债,以及20Y、50Y超长期特别国债各一支发行;此外,一般国债中有两支10Y国债发行,料将对流动性市场形成一定扰动。央行4月放量MLF净投放,也可能是为了对冲后续政府债的供给对长期流动性的压力。

  对于MLF净投放增加,东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青分析,背后可能有两个原因:一是本月启动今年1.3万亿元超长期特别国债和5000亿元特别国债发行,加之未来一段时间地方政府债券还会保持较快发行节奏,都意味着债市将迎来更大规模的发行高峰,需要央行通过适当的流动性安排,确保政府债券顺利发行。这体现了货币政策与财政政策之间的协调配合。二是4月外部经贸环境骤然发生变化,宏观政策将在稳增长方向显著加力。其中,央行大幅加量续作MLF,体现了保持流动性充裕,加大对实体经济支持力度的政策取向,释放了货币政策稳增长发力的信号。

  明明团队分析,MLF宽幅净投放,中标利率或存在下行空间。3月以来,MLF采取多重价位招标方式,其利率定价更加市场化,或更有效地反映市场中长期负债成本定价。当下1Y同业存单利率回落至1.75%附近,相较于3月1.9%以上的中枢大幅下行。结合MLF多重价位中标模式,以及本次5000亿元的宽幅净投放规模,本次MLF中标利率或相较于3月存在进一步下行的空间,有助于压降商业银行负债成本。

  王青判断,本月央行买断式逆回购也会处于较大规模净投放状态,且后期不排除降准较快落地的可能。

  政策利率属性淡出后,MLF的工具定位也更为清晰,即聚焦于提供1年期流动性。目前央行流动性工具箱丰富,期限分布更趋合理,长期有降准、国债买卖,中期有MLF、买断式逆回购操作以及各类结构性工具,短期有公开市场7天期逆回购、临时隔夜正、逆回购。未来央行流动性管理将更加高效精准,调控力度和节奏更加科学灵活,更好兼顾多重目标。

4月24日,Mhmarkets迈汇表示,美国页岩油行业可能正面临放缓的迹象,这一趋势从油田服务巨头哈利伯顿(Halliburton)的最新警告中可见一斑。哈利伯顿认为,其美国客户正在重新评估2025年的钻探活动计划,这一动态引发了市场对美国页岩油产量增长前景的担忧。

  Mhmarkets迈汇进一步认为,在宏观经济不确定性增加、特朗普政府关税政策导致设备成本上升以及部分油田和油井的油价仅勉强达到盈亏平衡水平的背景下,分析师们纷纷下调了对美国石油产量增长的预期。哈利伯顿的这一警告不仅反映了行业内部对市场前景的谨慎态度,也凸显了外部环境对页岩油行业的影响。

  此外,Mhmarkets迈汇还提到,哈利伯顿报告称2025年第一季度北美收入同比下降了12%,降至22亿美元。该公司表示,这一下降主要是由于美国陆上作业的刺激活动减少以及墨西哥湾完成工具销售的下降。尽管哈利伯顿的国际收入仅略有下降,但北美市场的表现仍引起了市场的广泛关注。

  Mhmarkets迈汇总结认为,尽管美国页岩油行业在过去几年中取得了显著的增长,但当前的市场环境和政策变化可能会对其未来的发展构成挑战。投资者在考虑投资页岩油相关资产时,需要密切关注宏观经济趋势、政策变化以及行业内部的动态调整。

4月24日,HTFX外汇表示,太空旅游作为一种新兴的高端旅游形式,引发了关于其环境影响和可持续性的广泛讨论。一方面,太空旅游被批评为碳排放极高的活动,其对环境的影响远超传统旅游形式;另一方面,太空旅游的支持者认为,它能够为科学探索和技术创新提供资金支持,推动太空技术的发展。

  HTFX外汇进一步认为,太空旅游的环境成本确实令人担忧。据2022年世界不平等报告,一次几分钟的太空飞行所产生的碳排放量,超过10亿人一生的碳排放量。这种高碳排放的活动在当前全球气候变化的背景下显得尤为突出。然而,太空旅游的支持者认为,太空旅游的发展可以降低太空探索的成本,为科学研究和技术创新提供资金支持,从而推动太空经济的发展。

  此外,HTFX外汇还提到,太空旅游的发展可能会带动相关产业的兴起,如太空港口、太空船制造、生命支持系统和培训项目等,从而促进全球经济的增长。然而,这种发展是否能够弥补其对环境的短期破坏,仍然是一个值得探讨的问题。

  HTFX外汇总结认为,太空旅游的未来发展需要在创新和环境可持续性之间找到平衡。尽管太空旅游可能带来一些长期的经济和技术利益,但其短期的环境成本也不容忽视。投资者和政策制定者需要综合考虑这些因素,以确保太空旅游的发展能够符合全球可持续发展的目标。

  HTFXLimited成立于2021年,是一家专注于国际金融衍生品及相关服务的券商公司,为客户和合作伙伴通过在线交易平台提供实时交易各种金融衍生品,致力于营造一个安全的金融业交易环境。

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