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专题:A股震荡整固机构建议把握结构性机会兼顾防御与成长

  在股市震荡加剧、债市利率下行的情况下,高股息、低波动的银行板块成为资金关注的“香饽饽”。

  4月16日,大盘延续弱势震荡,行业板块多数下行,银行独立向上,中证银行指数上涨1.01%,斩获“五连阳”,多只银行股盘中齐创历史新高。

  最新披露的2025年一季报显示,向来被基金低配的银行板块,在今年一季度获得了多只基金加仓。受访基金公司认为,资金越来越关注高股息和低波稳健的确定性,银行的类固收配置价值有望进一步凸显。

  多只银行股创历史新高

  4月16日,在大盘震荡走弱的情况下,农业银行、建设银行、上海银行等多只银行股在盘中创下历史新高。

  以上海银行为例,4月16日,上海银行大涨3.29%,收盘报10.36元/股,创上市以来新高。拉长时间来看,上海银行年内涨幅达13.22%,在中证银行指数成份股中排名第一。

  整体来看,中证银行指数在近期持续上扬,截至4月16日已经斩获“五连阳”,这也带动多只银行ETF水涨船高,汇添富银行ETF龙头、华安银行ETF指数基金上涨超1%,华宝银行ETF、富国银行ETF等上涨超0.9%。

  拆解银行板块的韧性密码,多家基金公司认为,外部扰动或将持续抬高市场波动率,银行的股息吸引力进一步凸显。截至4月16日,中证银行指数股息率(近12个月)为6.18%,较10年期国债收益率(1.64%)超额4.5个百分点,且仍在继续走阔,叠加板块市净率PB仅0.68倍,安全边际充分,政策组合拳亦有望对板块构成支撑。

  基金一季度加仓银行股

  公募基金对银行股长期处于低配状态,但从最新披露的基金一季报来看,多只基金产品加大了对银行股的配置力度。

  比如,金信智能中国2025灵活配置混合的一季报显示,该基金前十大重仓股全部为银行股,且在一季度大幅加仓了交通银行、中国银行、建设银行、光大银行,其中交通银行为第一大重仓股。

  此外,安信聚利增强在一季度加仓了工商银行,安信量化精选沪深300指数增强在一季度加仓了招商银行、交通银行、农业银行。

  实际上,基金早在去年四季度便已经增持银行股。银河证券的研报显示,2024年四季度,主动型基金对银行持仓总市值为555.84亿元,环比增加22.87%;持仓占比为3.95%,环比上升1.16个百分点。截至2024年末,主动型基金重仓持股总市值排名前五的银行分别为招商银行、江苏银行、成都银行、工商银行、宁波银行,重仓基金持仓占比分别为0.84%、0.43%、0.38%、0.38%、0.38%,均较三季度上升。

  除了基金外,保险机构也在近期频频举牌上市银行。据证券时报记者统计,年内有招商银行H股、农业银行H股、邮储银行H股、中信银行H股以及杭州银行被险企举牌。

  比如,据港交所披露,平安人寿委托平安资管通过竞价交易方式投资招商银行H股股票,于2025年3月13日增持招行H股606.75万股,平均每股作价48.4364港元,总金额约为2.94亿港元。此次增持后,平安人寿持有约4.62亿股招行H股,持股比例升至10.06%。此后,3月26日,平安人寿再次增持招行H股,增持后持有比例突破11%。

  类固收配置价值凸显

  为何基金、险资等机构明显加大了对银行股的配置?多家受访基金公司认为,近期,市场不确定性增强,波动率或将持续偏高,而银行股受益其财务数据平稳、分红价值确定、估值波动偏低等特征,成为资产配置的重要方向。

  华宝基金认为,近期市场快速轮动,高股息和低波稳健的确定性机会持续演绎,作为经营稳健、高股息、低波动的代表板块,银行在高波环境下类固收配置价值有望进一步凸显:

  一是业绩表现稳健。从2024年年报看,银行经营发展稳健,业绩增速持续改善,资产质量保持向好。政策组合拳亦有望为银行基本面带来支撑,预计金融增量政策配合宽松财政政策加快落地,资负两端利率传导效率加强缓解银行息差压力。

  二是分红“盛宴”开启。目前已有24家银行宣布拟派发现金红利,包括此前已派发的2024年度中期分红在内,这24家银行2024年度累计分红金额超过5700亿元,其中国有六大行全年累计分红金额合计超4200亿元,较上年均有提升。股份行方面,招商银行以504.40亿元的分红总额领跑,现金分红比例达到35.3%。此外,兴业银行2024年度现金分红比例首次突破30%。

  三是股东、高管真金白银护盘。年内已有邮储银行、光大银行等多家银行股东披露增持公告,华夏银行、浙商银行等也公告了高管增持自家银行股份,不仅为银行股提供了资金支持,更重要的是向市场传递了积极的信号,有助于增强投资者信心。

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