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金融投资报记者贺梦璐

4月16日,国际金价再创新高。现货黄金价格逼近站上3300美元关口。与此同时,国内金饰每克价格已突破1000元。

面对金价的陡峭涨势,投资者正面临陷入两难局面:是乘势加仓,押注长期价值,还是趁机出货,规避回调风险?面对黄金的“疯狂”行情,这究竟是新一轮牛市的起点,还是泡沫积聚的重要信号?实际上,投资者的每一次决策,恰是“黄金时代”急速变化的微观缩影。

黄金价格再创新高

具体来看,截至4月16日16时,现货黄金价格报每盎司3284.55美元,上涨1.05%。另外,国内金饰价格再创新高,较高者每克已达1006元。具体而言,周大福、周六福、六福珠宝、金至尊16日金价均为每克1006元,老凤祥为每克1005元,周生生、老庙为每克1003元。

AI识股

4月16日,国内金饰价格再创新高。

金融投资报记者注意到,今年以来,国际金价延续上涨趋势。现货黄金价格从年初每盎司约2600美元攀升至3300美元附近。因此,狂飙的金价,让多家机构纷纷大幅上调对黄金的价格展望。

日前,高盛发布报告称,将2025年黄金目标价从此前的每盎司3300美元上调至3700美元;花旗预测,金价可能在年底前攀升至每盎司3500美元;摩根大通则指出,黄金价格从2500美元涨至3000美元仅用了210天,4000美元的关口是否近在咫尺?

股价方面,黄金上市公司表现亮眼。截至4月16日收盘,特力a直线涨停,赤峰黄金涨超8%,山金国际、西部黄金等涨幅靠前。

另外,今年一季度,A股黄金行业上市公司业绩迎来大幅增长。湖南黄金、山东黄金等头部公司相继发布业绩预喜公告。

具体来看,4月10日晚间,湖南黄金发布2025年一季度业绩预告,报告期内,主要受公司金、锑产品销售价格同比上涨推动,公司预计一季度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润3.25亿元至3.74亿元,同比增长100%至130%。

4月14日晚间,山东黄金发布2025年第一季度业绩预告,经初步测算,公司预计今年第一季度实现归母净利润9.5亿元至11.3亿元,同比增长35.74%至61.45%。

央行连续5个月增持黄金

金价狂飙的背后,是“超级买家”的强势出击。

各国央行掀起的“购金潮”,是影响全球黄金供需格局及长期价格的关键因素,且呈现出愈演愈烈之势。有业内人士指出,全球多家央行纷纷增加黄金储备,将黄金视为稳定资产配置,作为应对货币贬值和金融市场不确定性的重要手段。

世界黄金协会发布的2024年四季度及全年《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示,2022年至2024年,全球央行购金量连续三年超过1000吨,这一水平远超2010至2021年年均550吨的平均水平。

然而,全球多家央行对黄金的高需求仍在继续。世界黄金协会公布的数据显示,今年2月,全球央行黄金储备增加了24吨。

值得一提的是,国家外汇管理局最新统计数据显示,截至2025年3月末,我国外汇储备规模为32407亿美元,较2月末上升134亿美元,升幅为0.42%,我国外汇储备规模已连续16个月稳定在3.2万亿美元以上。

根据央行公布的黄金储备数据显示,截至2025年3月末,我国黄金储备为7370万盎司,较2月末的7361万盎司增加9万盎司,央行已连续5个月扩大黄金储备。

“我国央行连续增持黄金,符合市场预期。”有业内人士分析称,随着外部环境出现新变化,从优化国际储备结构角度来说,增持黄金的需求仍在不断上升。

投资者策略现分化

作为兼具商品、抗通胀、避险等多重属性的黄金,颇受投资者青睐。当全球通胀高企,因其保值性而格外受宠;当外部环境复杂多变,又常常充当“避风港”。

面对居高不下的金价,投资者是选择乘胜加仓,还是决意趁机出货?金融投资报记者注意到,面对“金灿灿”的黄金市场,投资者态度呈两极分化。

当投资者既想抓住高点套现,又担忧后续金价“失控”,在矛盾与不安中,黄金遭遇大量抛售。4月16日,成都某金店的回收价为每克760元,该店销售人员透露,近期黄金回收量增长了30%—40%。

值得留意的是,当部分投资者涌入变现队伍,仍有不少投资者渴望找到致富路径,于是他们将目光瞄准银行金条、黄金ETF等。

世界黄金协会最新研究显示,2025年第一季度实物支持的黄金交易所交易基金(ETF)流入量达到226吨,价值210亿美元,创下近三年来最大季度流入量。报告显示,北美上市基金占总流入资金的61%,欧洲市场占需求的22%左右,亚洲市场占全球流入资金的16%。

对此,有专家指出,如今黄金投资必须构建三级流动性池:10%实物金、30%纸黄金、60%黄金概念股。这种“虚实结合”模式既能对冲风险,又确保急需用钱时的快速变现。

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