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两个人一前一后的上我:我们该如何调整心态,迎接更美好的明天?
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◎记者李雨琪

4月24日,A股三大指数冲高回落,盘中一度集体翻红,随后走势分化。截至收盘,上证指数报3297.29点,涨0.03%;深证成指报9878.32点,跌0.58%;创业板指报1935.86点,跌0.68%。全市场当天成交额为11389亿元,较上个交易日缩量1235亿元。

盘面上,受国际金价反弹影响,市场再度进入避险情绪,超3500只个股下跌。银行、电力、煤炭等板块涨幅居前,算力、半导体、软件开发等板块跌幅居前。从行业指数来看,尽管高股息资产纷纷上涨,但场内也有化学制药、风电、食品加工制造等板块保持活跃。此外,多只高位股尾盘走出反包走势,安记食品、国芳集团均上演“地天板”。

业内人士分析,近期市场虽然反复“拉扯”,但风格切换总体是良性的,毕竟全A平均股价也在涨跌交替中渐渐补缺。

高股息资产纷纷上涨

周四,银行、电力、煤炭等高股息资产集体上涨。银行板块中,齐鲁银行涨超3%,厦门银行、渝农商行等涨势明显。中国银行、农业银行、工商银行分别涨2.10%、2.01%和1.83%,股价均创历史新高。

中金公司表示,一季度银行持仓集中度提高、股份行占比较高,主要缘于经济阶段性企稳下的市场风格切换。此外,近期银行股作为指数重要组成部分对指数维稳也起到了重要作用,在目前市场领涨方向并不明确的背景下,资金选择防御的重要方向。

电力板块表现更为强势。截至收盘,乐山电力、华银电力、广西能源、西昌电力、韶能股份等多只个股涨停。

华银电力近日发布了2025年一季报。报告期内,公司实现营业收入23.07亿元,同比增长5.06%;实现净利润7567.49万元,同比增长894.61%。

消息面上,国家能源局近日发布数据显示,2025年3月全社会用电量8282亿千瓦时,同比增长4.8%。

国泰期货表示,当前国内经济延续回暖态势,制造业PMI持续回升。预计4月全社会用电量同比增速有望延续3月回升势头,增速区间或为4.5%至5.5%。

长江证券分析称,从历史规律看,不论是A股红利还是港股红利,在4月超额收益均较为明显。统计2022年至2024年红利风格表现较强区间的A股红利和港股红利月度表现,发现红利风格有一定的季节效应,在1月、4月、8月及12月超额收益较为明显。从行业表现看,A股红利中,国有行、水电和高速公路4月表现较好。

宠物经济概念股走强

宠物经济概念股昨日集体走强,路斯股份盘中一度涨超20%。截至收盘,天元宠物以20%幅度涨停,路斯股份、乖宝宠物涨超10%,中宠股份、依依股份涨停。

业绩方面,多家宠物公司交出亮眼的一季度“成绩单”。中宠股份一季报显示,公司一季度实现营业收入11.01亿元,同比增长25.41%;归属于上市公司股东的净利润9115.53万元,同比增长62.13%。乖宝宠物一季度实现营业收入14.89亿元,同比增长34.82%;归属于上市公司股东的净利润2.04亿元,同比增长37.68%。

银河证券预计,我国宠物行业规模有望于2027年突破4000亿元。情感经济、科学养宠、理性养宠等消费趋势的变化将带来结构性机遇。宠物食品、医疗等子行业均存持续扩容预期,相关企业盈利能力有望进一步增强。建议关注宠物食品、宠物医疗板块。

机构:5月行情“不穷”

太平洋证券认为,与市场上方套牢盘的压力相比,当前市场成交额仍不足以形成有效突破,预计后续仍将维持震荡走势。方向上,预计市场将以消费、科技和红利三者轮动上涨,考虑到资金的避险需求,行情更可能在“五一”假期后展开。

中原证券表示,近期A股呈现分化格局,沪深300、上证50等宽基指数受益于机构资金持续流入,金融、地产等大盘蓝筹表现占优,而科技成长板块延续调整。4月是年报和一季报密集披露期,市场将从预期驱动转向基本面验证。预计短期市场仍以区间震荡为主,但政策托底与经济韧性为结构性机会提供支撑。未来市场有望呈现科技领涨、红利防御、消费复苏与内需驱动的特征,建议投资者把握结构性机会,兼顾防御与成长。

据光大证券研究,通过追踪上证指数、沪深300、深证成指、创业板指、中证500、中证1000等12个指数,在过去20年的时间里,这些指数5月的平均涨跌幅基本为正值,但是多数指数上涨概率不超50%,因此5月行情“不穷”。

该机构认为,5月A股将出现风格切换,中小市值指数、成长股或逐渐成为市场的主线机遇。

  美国税收和经济政策研究所的分析显示,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税对低收入家庭带来的加税冲击是高收入群体的三倍以上。

  这家进步派智库的报告对如果当前实施的关税措施延续到明年,不同收入水平的美国人所受的影响进行了概述。由于物价更高,收入在28600美元或以下的人群将不得不多花收入的6.2%,而收入至少为914900美元的最富有群体预计将多花1.7%。收入在55100美元至94100美元之间的中等收入家庭将多花5%。

  经济学家警告称,加关税带来的成本最终将转嫁给美国消费者。虽然每个人面临的物价都会涨,但低收入家庭的损失与其预算之比会更大,因为他们在食品和其他必需品等商品上的支出占比高于高收入群体。

  耶鲁预算实验室估计,食品价格短期内可能因关税而上涨2.6%。其报告显示,在所有受影响的商品中,服装价格预计涨幅最大,达64%。

  耶鲁预算实验室预计,关税将导致美国家庭年均损失4700美元。

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