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  汇通财经APP讯——周五因复活节长周末休市,周四金价触及每盎司3350美元上方的纪录高位后,投资者部分获利了结。尽管金价看起来继续仍处于超买状态,但一些分析师表示,市场仍处于稳固的上行趋势。

  尽管面临抛售压力,但金价守住了3300美元附近的坚实支撑位。

  TradeNation的高级市场分析师DavidMorrison将本周金价走势(包括周三100美元的涨势)描述为井喷式顶部。

  他表示:“金价在一周内上涨了13%,即360美元。因此,投资者不应对目前价格回落感到意外。黄金看起来也非常超买,其日MACD指标触及2011年4月以来的最高水平,然后金价就见顶。这并不意味着金价不能进一步上涨,但在目前的水平上,买家应保持谨慎。”

  就在金价展现韧性之际,美元本周将收于99.49点的三年低点。

  Tastylive.com的期货和外汇主管ChristopherVecchio表示,黄金应该会继续受益于美元的进一步走软。他说,虽然美元预计不会很快失去其储备货币地位,但特朗普总统不稳定的贸易政策削弱了美国在全球市场上的地位。

  他称:“我们正在从‘美国治下的和平’退回到‘美国优先’,这是一套非常不同的规则。没有其他货币可以填补储备货币的空白,所以我们有点被美元困住了,但我们需要其他的东西。那就是黄金。”

  BrownBrothersHarriman的外汇分析师也预计美元将进一步走软,这将继续支撑金价史无前例的涨势。高盛全球外汇策略主管WinThin上周五在一份报告中表示:“我们仍然认为,最近美元的疲软在很大程度上是由于对美国政策制定者的信心日益丧失,以及政策不确定性对美国经济的负面影响。因此,我们预计美元将持续走软,并认为美元的任何复苏都相当脆弱,无论美国经济数据如何。”在这种环境下,Vecchio表示,他仍然认为黄金的任何下跌都是买入的机会。

  然而,投资者近期面临的问题是,在这种前所未有的势头下,确定金价应该处于什么位置。FXTM的高级研究分析师LukmanOtunuga指出,黄金在3350美元上方的涨势推动金价今年上涨了28%,超过了去年24%的涨幅。

  他说:“由于对全球经济衰退的担忧,贸易紧张局势吸引投资者转向贵金属的安全怀抱,黄金继续发光。然而,由于金价严重超买,在金价走高之前,技术性回调可能即将到来。根据回调的强度,金价可能会滑向3250美元,3140美元,3000美元的心理水平是一个重要的支撑位。如果3300美元被证明是可靠的支撑位,金价可能会推向下一个心理水平3400美元以及更高。”

  盛宝银行的大宗商品策略主管OleHansen表示,他认为金价可能出现大幅回调,但他预计下周不会出现这种情况。

  他说:“黄金最终将暂停并经历200至300美元的调整,但现在还不是时候,因为还有很多悬而未决的问题,特朗普最近对鲍威尔的攻击加剧了这一问题,可能会提升债券市场风险一个等级。”

  周四,特朗普总统抱怨美联储主席鲍威尔和美联储的货币政策立场,给予市场更多的不确定性。周三,鲍威尔在芝加哥经济俱乐部发表讲话时,即便经济活动面临的风险有所增加,他维持了他的中性立场,同时强调了日益增长的通胀威胁。

  特朗普在社交媒体上写道:“总是太迟和出错的美联储主席鲍威尔,昨天发布了一份报告,又是一份典型的、完全‘一团糟’的报告!鲍威尔的解职来得越快越好!”

  美联储的立场与欧洲央行形成鲜明对比。欧洲央行周四降息,并暗示随着通胀压力持续缓解,将进一步降息。

  FOREX.com的市场分析师FawadRazaqzada表示,他认为金价走势为更长时间盘整做准备的风险越来越大,类似于其他大幅反弹。

  他指出,金价较200周移动均线高出1275美元,溢价61%。

  他说:“除非宏观经济条件仍然强劲支持,否则很难看到如此大的差距持续下去。是的,今天的环境可能证明了这一点,但均值回归有办法把事情拉回正轨。”

  一些分析师表示,由于经济日历相对清淡,黄金将继续敏感于全球贸易和地缘政治头条新闻。

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