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  转自:财联社

  欧洲央行管委马迪斯·穆勒(MadisMuller)最新表示,如果贸易不确定性对经济增长的打击超出预期,欧洲央行可能被迫要把利率降到“中性”水平以下,以对经济起到刺激作用。

  穆勒接受采访时说道,“现在的借贷成本已经达到不再抑制需求的水平”。但他警告,若形势恶化,央行必须做好“更宽松”货币政策的准备。

  穆勒称,欧洲央行应该在6月份,即下一次制定政策时对美欧之间的关税谈判有更清晰的了解,并将根据届时可用的数据做出决定,“我们不能完全排除经济会比我们预期更疲软的可能性。”

  上周,欧洲央行宣布将三大关键利率分别下调25个基点,其中存款利率下调至2.25%,是该行2024年6月开始降息以来的第七次降息。有分析认为,目前的借贷成本处于经济学家认定的利率区间的上限。

  穆勒表示,现在说欧洲央行是否会在6月再次降息或持稳还为时过早,“当然,也有可能我们需要在货币政策上稍微宽松一些。但也存在着不采取更宽松政策的可能性。现在下结论还为时过早。”

  日内,欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德在另一场活动上表示,尽管需要更多时间来全面评估形势,但美国关税对欧洲而言可能更具有抑制通胀的效果,而非加剧通胀。

  穆勒说:“美国贸易政策带来的不确定性,让前景变得更具挑战性。但尽管如此,我们仍然可以预期我们会有适度的增长,只是增速可能会比原本情况下要慢。我认为对欧元区的影响不会太大,不至于引发衰退。”

  穆勒还表示,通胀前景将在很大程度上取决于欧洲的反应,近期欧元的走强对增长和通胀都会有影响。

  “欧元升值将对欧洲出口商的价格竞争力产生负面影响,并将给通胀带来一些有限的下行压力,因为进口商品将更加便宜。但这种对通胀的影响不会立即显现出来,也很可能不会那么显著。”

  近期,美国财长贝森特表示,有信心美欧达成贸易协议,缓解紧张局势。对此,穆勒认为,“我不确定是否真的能期待有那么清晰的解释,但听听美国当局对其政策的看法,以及他们如何解释他们所看到的前景,肯定是有益的。”

  编辑:马萌伟

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