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  【相关阅读】特朗普欲“罢免”鲍威尔引发市场恐慌,美国股汇债“三杀”,黄金涨破3420美元  

  美国“股债汇三杀”源自于市场对美联储独立性的质疑?  

  特朗普继续施压美联储降息美股再遇“黑色星期一”  

  美国资产周一重演股债汇三杀,黄金和避险性质的瑞郎等货币加速上涨,金价再创历史新高。

  截至收盘,道指跌2.48%,纳指跌2.55%,标普500指数跌2.36%。大型科技股普跌,其中特斯拉跌近6%,英伟达、甲骨文跌超4%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数逆势收涨0.2%,阿里巴巴涨逾1%,蔚来汽车涨超2%。

  比特币一度涨近4000美元突破8.8万关口。

  美元暴跌至去年10月份以来的低点,资金加速流向瑞郎、日元和黄金等避险资产。

  瑞郎涨超1%创十年新高,美元兑日元跌破141整数关口,日内跌幅一度超1%。

  商品市场方面,COMEX黄金期货收涨3.21%,报3435.10美元/盎司,再创历史新高。

  截至发稿,COMEX白银期货收涨0.50%,报32.95美元/盎司。

  WTI5月原油期货收跌1.60美元,跌幅2.47%报63.08美元/桶。布伦特6月原油期货收跌1.70美元,跌幅2.50%报66.26美元/桶。NYMEX5月天然气期货收跌7.06%,报3.0160美元/百万英热。

  消息面上,据央视新闻报道,当天稍早前,美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体平台“真实社交”上发文,再次敦促美国联邦储备委员会作出降息决定。特朗普在帖文中宣称“美国实际上已不存在通胀,能源、食品及其他大多数商品价格下行趋势如此显著,几乎不可能引发通胀。但如果‘太迟先生’(指美联储主席鲍威尔)不立即降息,美国经济将面临放缓风险。”

  美东时间周一,美国三大股指连续第四日下跌:标普500指数收跌124.50点,跌幅2.36%,报5158.20点;道琼斯工业平均指数收跌971.82点,跌幅2.48%,报38170.41点;纳指收跌415.55点,跌幅2.55%,报15870.90点。纳斯达克100指数收跌449.79点,跌幅2.46%,报17808.30点。

  “科技七姐妹”均下跌。英伟达跌4.51%,MetaPlatforms跌3.35%,亚马逊跌3.06%,微软跌2.35%,谷歌A跌2.31%,苹果跌1.94%。

  特斯拉收跌5.75%,市值一夜蒸发450亿美元(约合人民币3280亿元)。值得一提的是,特斯拉公司将在周二盘后发布财报。受到CEO马斯克参政引发品牌危机和关税冲击的影响,公司股价在特朗普宣誓就职后不到100天里接近腰斩。分析师和特斯拉的股东们也在期待,马斯克是否会在周二的财报会议上,公开从特朗普政府脱身的计划。

  费城半导体指数收跌2.10%,报3751.91点。台积电ADR跌2.56%,AMD跌2.22%。

  巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦B类股跌2.18%。

  礼来制药收跌2.61%。

  纳斯达克金龙中国指数收涨0.20%,报6496.52点。

  截至周一收盘,阿里巴巴涨1.18%、京东跌1.9%、百度涨0.47%、拼多多涨0.72%、哔哩哔哩跌0.12%、蔚来涨2.27%、网易涨0.92%、富途控股涨0.72%、理想汽车涨0.39%、搜狐涨3%、汽车之家涨4.73%、叮咚买菜涨5%。

  据央视新闻21日报道,当地时间4月21日,美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体平台“真实社交”上发文,再次敦促美国联邦储备委员会作出降息决定。

  特朗普在帖文中宣称“美国实际上已不存在通胀,能源、食品及其他大多数商品价格下行趋势如此显著,几乎不可能引发通胀。但如果‘太迟先生’(指美联储主席鲍威尔)不立即降息,美国经济将面临放缓风险。”

  特朗普近来频繁施压鲍威尔,要求美联储立即降息,并称鲍威尔的行动总是“又迟又错”,“越早走人越好”。

  鲍威尔当地时间4月16日在芝加哥经济俱乐部发表讲话时说,“美国政府已宣布的关税上调幅度远超预期水平,这给美国经济带来的影响,包括推高通胀和抑制增长同样可能超出预期,令美联储货币政策制定面临更棘手局面。”他表示,“美联储在决定是否调整利率前,将继续观察加征关税及其他经济政策的实际影响。”

  据证券时报21日报道,华尔街警告称,“解雇鲍威尔”风波大举削弱了投资者信心,因为美联储的独立性长期以来一直被视为投资美国资产的关键保障。如果真出现鲍威尔提前下台的一幕,特朗普很可能会挑选一位货币政策立场“极其鸽派”的鲍威尔接班人,以迎合白宫对降息的呼吁。

  BMOCapitalMarkets美国利率策略主管IanLyngen表示,在政府已经让经济前景充满前所未有的不确定性之时,任何试图罢免鲍威尔的企图都会进一步加大美国资产的下行压力。

  “美联储的独立性非常宝贵——不能视作理所当然,一旦失去,也很难挽回,”FHNFinancial驻芝加哥宏观策略师WillCompernolle表示,“特朗普对鲍威尔的威胁,显然无助于增强外国投资者对美国资产的信心。”

  此外,摩根士丹利策略师MichaelWilson表示,鉴于经济严重放缓的风险,分析师正纷纷下调对美国企业盈利的预期。数据显示,分析师对第一季度标普500指数成分股,每股收益增长的预测,已从年初的11.4%大幅下调至6.9%。

  美银策略师MichaelHartnett则在4月17日的报告中认为,在今年第二季度,由于多种不确定性因素,美国股票可能会面临下跌压力。投资者应在第二季度逢高抛售美股,直到美联储开始降息以及关税政策发生变化。

  Hartnett还认为,美联储正在受到关税政策的拖累。市场预计美联储在5月7日的联邦公开市场委员会会议上降息的可能性为11%,6月18日的会议上为60%,7月30日的会议上为141%。

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