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  今年以来,A股和港股的科技股表现最为突出,呈现出“东升西落”的态势。美股科技股因估值泡沫较大,在春节前迪斯公司出现后,出现了较大幅度的下跌。迪斯公司的出现打破了资本对美国在人工智能领域垄断的幻想,同时提振了中国资本对中国科技创新的信心,导致美股科技股泡沫率先破裂。4月2日,特朗普突然发起关税战,极大动摇了全球资本对美国政府和美国资产的信心,成为刺破美股科技股泡沫的第二个因素,使美国科技股再次出现大跌。

  A股和港股的科技股上涨,很大程度上得益于科技创新的推动。在硬件方面,新凯兰在上海展出了最新的芯片设备,实现了较大突破,我国在高端芯片领域的突破时间有望大大缩短,不再被美国“卡脖子”。在软件方面,大模型的出现使我国在软件领域也取得了突破。硬件与软件的双重突破推动了我国科技的进一步发展。人形机器人是科技与消费的最佳落地场景。北京亦庄举办的世界首届人形机器人半马比赛吸引了全球目光,天空机器人夺冠,仅换三次电池就跑完全程,表现优异。尽管有些机器人表现笨拙,甚至摔倒,但在工作人员遥控下继续完成比赛,赢得了观众的热烈掌声。这次大赛展现了国内众多厂家在机器人产业的积极布局,工信部也将机器人定位为未来创新产业。人形机器人赛道有望成为未来产值超过新能源汽车产业的赛道,因为家庭对机器人的需求可能超过汽车。

  机器人量产预计在2025年实现小批量生产,明年有望大批量生产,且增速极快,未来机器人数量可能超过人类,为相关产业带来巨大机会。夺冠的天空机器人今年计划小批量量产,预计会受到市场热捧。我国在机器人产业具有制造能力强、产业链齐全、生产成本低的优势,一旦量产,将快速降低成本,有望复制新能源汽车领域的成功经验,使全球大部分机器人由中国制造,成为未来重要的产业赛道,带来5-10年的投资机会。尽管机器人产业在“黑色星期一”后出现大跌,但已开始持续回升,此次回调不会改变长期上行态势,反而为前期踏空投资者提供了入市机会。

  当时代机遇到来时,不要错过。对技术进步和新鲜事物,无论看好与否,都应参与,否则可能错过巨大投资机遇。2014年新能源汽车概念刚提出时,虽存在诸多质疑和问题,但随着技术进步,如今已发展成为我国出口创汇的新产业之一,销售渗透率超过50%。未来机器人产业有望复制新能源汽车的发展成功经验,成为创造巨大需求和机会的行业。投资者可通过布局人形机器人的细分行业龙头股或相关主题投资基金来抓住机会。虽然整机机器人公司投资风险较大,但未来成功的企业可能是一些大厂,如华为、比亚迪、腾讯、小米、阿里等,特斯拉的擎天柱项目也较先进,成功率较高。一些小厂的机器人公司可能会被大厂收购或在竞争中被淘汰。人形机器人是真正的科技加消费模式,我国在人工智能领域有望诞生一批伟大的公司。

  这轮科技行情的持续性较强,不是短期炒作,而是中国科技创新的突破和大力发展新生产力的必然要求,也是实现经济第二个增长曲线的重要途径。我国需要更多科技赛道跑出来,目前在芯片领域加大研发投入,已在14纳米芯片上率先突破,未来有望攻克七纳米芯片,突破卡脖子项目后,我国发展将更具自主性,不再受美国限制。英伟达创始人黄仁勋三个月内两次来华拜访,表明中国巨大的市场是科技巨头不会放弃的,中国使用的芯片可能占到英伟达20%-30%的销量,巨大的市场是我国的重要谈判筹码。未来中美关税谈判中,我国在科技方面的进步将增加谈判筹码,而我国庞大的消费市场和人口也是重要筹码。预计中美关系谈判不会拖延太久,特朗普在国内面临巨大压力,会寻求通过谈判达成一致,使中美贸易回归正轨。一旦中美谈判开启,科技股将迎来第二波行情,产生新的赚钱效应,进而带动消费白马股、新能源龙头股、红利股、券商股等其他板块轮番表现,市场第二轮上升行情即将到来。希望中美关系战早日结束,我国经济实现持续恢复,特别是科技创新行业获得更好发展,使资本市场成为大家实现财富增长的主要领域。

MACD金叉信号形成,这些股涨势不错! 徐岁宁给洛之雄鹤夜宴大结局,带你走进无限影视世界,发现更多精彩影片的相关文章 if椰子树赴港IPO 46人年入1.5亿美元的相关文章
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