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  转自:北京商报

  国际金价高位震荡后继续向上。4月15日,伦敦金现、COMEX黄金均波动上涨。回顾近日,伦敦金现、COMEX黄金价格相继突破新高,但随后回调。在金价持续波动的同时,黄金主题ETF获资金大量净流入。Wind数据显示,4月14日,黄金ETF单日净流入合计约30.25亿元,更有4只黄金ETF包揽当日ETF净流入前四名。从年初至今的涨幅来看,相关黄金主题基金的年内涨幅均超20%,最高达30.19%。在业内人士看来,2025年黄金价格可能有一定波动,但趋势仍向上。

  国际金价高位震荡

  国际金价延续高位震荡。4月15日,伦敦金现、COMEX黄金均波动上涨。截至当日17时,伦敦金现报3228.93美元/盎司,涨0.59%;COMEX黄金报3244.9美元/盎司,涨0.58%。

  就在前一日,伦敦金现价格再创新高,达3245.73美元/盎司。4月11日,COMEX黄金价格也达3263美元/盎司,再破纪录。突破历史高点后,国际金价高位回调,但截至当前,伦敦金现、COMEX黄金的年内涨幅仍超20%。

  博时基金基金经理王祥分析表示,过去一周黄金市场在特朗普反复无常的关税政策冲击下,率先从先前的短期调整中恢复。关税对黄金价格的利空风险,主要在于海外资产共振大跌带来的流动性挤兑,流动性冲击修复后,市场开始定价中长期关税对经济的影响。

  “上周欧美股市的下跌并未极端化,且对等关税暂缓后有所回升,流动性挤兑的风险有所下降。此外,在财政宽松超预期和通胀低于预期的情况下,美国反而出现股债汇三杀的局面,特别是历史框架中美债收益率的下行本应对金价构成冲击,因为这意味着黄金投资机会成本的上升。但上周海外投资者却顶着收益率上冲的背景而快速涌入黄金市场,美元信用的崩塌短期似有进一步显性化的落地趋势,对黄金价格形成利好。”王祥说道。

  在金价持续波动的同时,国内黄金主题ETF也获资金大量净流入。Wind数据显示,4月14日,黄金ETF单日净流入约30.25亿元。其中,华安黄金ETF、国泰黄金ETF、博时黄金ETF和易方达黄金ETF分别获10.1亿元、7.46亿元、6.88亿元和4.31亿元净流入,包揽当日ETF净流入前四名。整体来看,截至4月14日,年内黄金ETF合计获净流入约403.3亿元。

  另据世界黄金协会(WGC)披露,截至2025年一季度,实物黄金ETF流入总金额达210亿美元,流入量达226吨,创下历史第二高季度纪录。

  主题基金年内平均涨超25%

  若从年初至今黄金主题基金的整体表现看,Wind数据显示,截至4月14日,数据可取得的53只黄金主题基金(份额分开计算)年内涨幅均超20%,平均收益率为25.04%。其中,华夏中证沪港深黄金产业股票ETF、永赢中证沪港深黄金产业股票ETF涨超30%,年内收益率分别达30.19%、30.09%。

  在收益走高的同时,也有部分基金管理人频频提示黄金主题基金的相关风险。例如,4月15日,易方达基金提示,4月11日,易方达黄金主题LOF基金份额净值为1.301元,截至4月15日,该基金在二级市场的收盘价为1.657元。特此提示投资者关注二级市场交易价格溢价风险。而自4月以来,易方达基金已连续8次提示该基金的溢价风险。

  金价持续波动的背景下,后续走势又将如何?王祥认为,随着对等关税延缓和部分产品的豁免,关税引发的冲击短期或有缓和,美联储降息预期同步回落,短期金价可能存在波动风险。但在高利率的反身性和关税、裁员等组合政策的负面影响下,美国基本面预计延续边际走弱的趋势,黄金中期逻辑依然风险较低。

  前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙也提到,近期国际金价创历史新高,突破3200美元关口,央行也连续多月增持黄金,纽交所黄金期货持仓量更创历史新高,但部分机构认为当前黄金多头未达最拥挤水平,黄金长期上涨趋势不变。2025年金价可能有一定波动,但趋势仍向上。受美联储后续降息预期提升、地缘政治冲突升级以及特朗普挑起的关税政策影响,进一步推动了黄金价格,黄金已从避险资产演变为对抗滞胀的核心标的。建议投资者积极布局黄金资产,投资组合中配置20%的黄金类资产或可有效抓住上涨机会,也能对冲风险、提高组合的夏普比率。

  北京商报记者李海媛

MACD金叉信号形成,这些股涨势不错! 大唐风华录:幸福家庭的开始,让爱传承下去的美好时刻!的相关文章 吉林:“北斗+4G”通信消除“信号盲区”黑暗中的柔道之光:盲人姑娘孟燕的冠军路的相关文章
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