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4月16日,金丰来表示,2025年3月以及整个第一季度,黄金市场展现出了显著的强劲态势。国内黄金价格和ETF资金流入均创下历史新高,同时央行也在持续购入黄金。不过,黄金价格的持续上涨也对进口和珠宝需求产生了一定的抑制作用。

  他认为,3月份黄金价格的上涨势头依然强劲,无论是国内还是国际市场上都创下了新的记录高点。人民币计价的黄金价格迎来了近一年来表现最为强劲的一个月,而美元计价的伦敦金银市场协会下午定盘价也达到了自2020年7月以来的最高水平。金丰来认为,地缘政治紧张局势以及贸易政策的不确定性增加了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力。美元的走弱以及黄金ETF投资的增加进一步推动了黄金价格的上涨。

  金丰来认为,2024年第一季度批发需求创纪录的高基数是导致2025年第一季度需求疲软的主要原因,同时黄金价格的大幅上涨也对珠宝需求产生了压力。然而,高企的黄金价格却有助于推动投资需求的增长。他提到,3月黄金ETF的资金流入持续了第二个月,总计达到56亿元人民币(约合7.72亿美元)。持续的资金流入以及黄金价格的上涨推动了总资产管理规模在月末再创新高,达到1010亿元人民币(约合140亿美元)。集体持仓量进一步增加了7.7吨,达到138吨,这也是一个新的纪录高点。

  展望未来,金丰来表示,随着中美贸易冲突加剧对经济增长和本地资产造成伤害,黄金投资需求在短期内仍将保持强劲。他补充说,全球黄金价格的强势,受到世界贸易秩序重构和市场波动的推动,也将为黄金市场提供进一步的支持。此外,他还提到,一些保险公司最近也进入了黄金市场,3月有四家公司成为黄金交易所的会员。他们的参与应该会在认为维持长期的黄金投资需求,尤其是在经济和贸易不确定性持续存在的背景下。但他也提醒,尽管即将到来的五一劳动节假期可能会带来一定的需求,但创纪录的高黄金价格和经济担忧仍然给珠宝需求前景蒙上了阴影。

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