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4月21日,中国保险行业协会组织召开人身保险业责任准备金评估利率专家咨询委员会2025年一季度例会,就宏观经济形势、市场利率走势和行业发展情况进行研究。与会专家一致认为,今年中国经济起步平稳、开局良好,延续了回升向好的态势,一季度国内生产总值同比增长5.4%,比去年四季度环比增长1.2%,显示了强大的韧性和潜力,为保险业提质增效、健康发展创造了良好的外部环境。保险业专家认为应当加快浮动收益型产品发展转型,强化资产负债联动管理,推动降本增效,实现高质量发展。保险业专家积极建言献策,并对人身保险产品预定利率研究值发表了意见,认为当前普通型人身保险产品预定利率研究值为2.13%。

参会保险公司表示,将密切关注宏观经济形势和预定利率研究值走势,及时跟进市场利率变化,结合行业发展和自身经营情况,研究调整产品定价,不断提升负债质量。

  在疫情管控期间,任天堂的Switch游戏机成为人们急需的一种消遣方式。如今,这家日本视频游戏公司在推出其后续产品时,却面临着残酷贸易战的严峻现实。

  Switch2定于6月5日推出。距离初代Switch的推出已经过去了八年,初代Switch的销量达到了1.5亿台,也证明了那些曾预测家用游戏机将走向衰落的人是错误的。

  虽然贸易战的焦点一直集中在汽车和芯片等行业,但作为《超级马里奥》和《大金刚》游戏的开发商,任天堂也必须应对关税对其业务造成的干扰。

  对于任天堂来说,贸易壁垒让今年最受关注的产品发布之一变得复杂起来,因为Switch2的成功对该公司未来的盈利能力至关重要。

  Switch2的推出将考验任天堂管理其供应链的能力,因为该公司既要努力确保向美国提供充足的货源,同时又要维持449.99美元的售价。

  KantanGames咨询公司的创始人塞尔坎・托托表示:“如果关税真的对他们造成冲击,他们可能仍需要提高Switch2的售价。”

  任天堂在4月2日公布了这款设备的价格和发布日期,就在同一天,美国总统唐纳德・特朗普公布了大规模的进口关税,而任天堂在1月份首次透露了Switch2的相关信息。

  随后,任天堂暂停了美国地区的预购活动,以便评估关税的影响,之后宣布将维持Switch2的定价,并于4月24日开启预购。

  任天堂提高了一些配件的价格,并在一份声明中表示,“未来还可能会根据市场情况进行其他调整”。

  托托称:“配件价格的上涨只能在一定程度上减轻冲击。”

  该公司过去曾经历过供应链中断的情况,而且其生产并不仅限于中国,中国输美商品目前面临着145%的关税。

  伯恩斯坦公司的分析师罗宾・朱表示:“在正常需求预期下,任天堂计划从越南和柬埔寨的工厂向美国供货。”

  越南和柬埔寨也受到了关税的影响,不过较高的关税已暂停征收90天。

  美国是任天堂的一个主要市场,在截至3月的财年中,美洲地区的销售额占任天堂总销售额的44%。

  里昂证券的分析师杰伊・德菲博表示:“即使在最糟糕的情况下,即任天堂在越南面临46%的报复性关税,在柬埔寨面临49%的报复性关税,我认为他们也将不得不承担这些成本。”

  安培分析公司预测,2025年Switch2在全球的销量为1320万台,其中在美国的销量为460万台。

  安培分析公司的分析师皮尔斯・哈丁-罗尔斯表示:“我认为在北美地区,Switch2的销售势头不会受到影响。”

  专家表示,即使价格更高,核心粉丝也会购买Switch2,但价格上涨可能会导致普通玩家的需求减少,而正是这些普通玩家让初代Switch大获成功。

  新游戏硬件的标价被视为决定其成功与否的最重要因素之一,初代Switch的价格也曾受到密切关注。

  玩家们一直在抱怨,与初代Switch相比,Switch2的价格上涨了50%,而且像售价79.99美元的《马里奥赛车世界》这样的新软件价格也更高。

  一些分析师认为,Switch2的标价已经考虑到了贸易战带来的不确定性。

  里昂证券的德菲博表示:“任天堂在供应链管理方面有着丰富的经验。”

  科技巨头纷纷涉足游戏领域以及移动游戏的发展,这让一些观察人士对大型游戏硬件的需求产生了质疑。

  然而,任天堂和索尼在该行业中仍然占据着领先地位。

  本月早些时候,索尼提高了其PlayStation5(PS5)在欧洲和英国的售价,一些分析师预计其在美国也会提价。

  PS5推出时受到了新冠疫情的影响,在其销售周期早期的销量不佳。

  分析师们总体上对Switch2的前景持乐观态度,它延续了前代产品的特点,拥有更大的屏幕和更好的图形效果。

  安培分析公司的哈丁-罗尔斯表示:“玩家们对更强大的Switch游戏体验有着大量被压抑的需求。”

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