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专题:市场缩量分化A股热点轮动或将延续

  在股权融资遇冷的背景下,并购重组业务成为券商投行寻求收入新增量的主要路径之一。不过,从目前已披露年报的25家上市券商对比来看,这一业务的格局可谓“悲喜两重天”。

  数据显示,以财务顾问业务净收入为口径,上述25家券商中有11家实现正增长,增幅最高达53%;有14家则出现了下滑,最高降幅达61%。整体而言,行业集中度进一步抬升,前八强券商分去了多数“蛋糕”。

  财务顾问业务净收入整体同比下滑

  2024年,并购重组市场持续升温,全年首次公告重大资产重组的A股上市公司达112家,同比增加9.80%,近一半都是在“并购六条”政策发布后予以公告。

  不过,由于受国内外复杂经济形势的影响,以及并购交易本身相对复杂漫长,实际落地的境内和跨境并购交易仍然呈下降趋势。以A股市场为例,根据Wind数据,重大资产重组交易的完成规模为812.41亿元,同比下降76%。

  对于投行来说,开展并购重组业务的收入主要包含在财务顾问业务中。数据显示,上述25家上市券商的财务顾问业务净收入总额为33.51亿元,较2023年仅下降2%,但具体到各家券商,分化则非常明显——有14家券商的财务顾问业务净收入出现下滑,另外11家券商则实现正增长。

  具体来看,财务顾问业务净收入出现下滑的14家券商中,除了国泰海通微降1%、国元证券下滑6%,其余券商的降幅均在10%以上。

  在财务顾问业务净收入实现正增长的11家券商中,广发证券以53%的增幅居首,首创证券、东方证券、中金公司、浙商证券的同比增幅均在20%以上。此外,南京证券、国海证券的财务顾问业务净收入也实现了10%以上的增长。

  由于财务顾问业务净收入还囊括其他咨询服务的收入,因此其收入金额和增长情况并不能完全反映券商开展并购重组业务的情况。比如,首创证券发布的2024年年报显示,该公司的财务顾问业务收入大增主要系在新三板推荐挂牌等方面取得了良好成绩。

  前八强券商抢走更多“蛋糕”

  从绝对值来看,仅有8家券商的财务顾问业务净收入迈过了1亿元关口,除浙商证券外,其余均为大型券商。

  财务顾问业务净收入居首的是中金公司,为9.16亿元,中信证券以5.64亿元次之。而位居二者之后的券商,分别是华泰证券、中信建投、申万宏源、国泰海通、招商证券、浙商证券。

  另外,财务顾问业务净收入在5000万元~1亿元之间的券商有6家,分别是中泰证券、东方证券、东兴证券、国联民生、广发证券、南京证券,其余11家券商的这一指标均在5000万元以下。

  整体上看,财务顾问业务净收入榜单前八的券商,净收入总和占比达到79%,较上年增加了4个百分点。由于目前除国信证券外,大型券商的年报已悉数披露完毕,因此不难看出,财务顾问业务市场的多数“蛋糕”实际上已被大型券商分走。

  与此同时,统计数据还显示,即使行业集中度已较高,但位于榜单前三的券商其实也存在着非常明显的收入分层。其中,中金公司具有明显领先优势,中信证券也和后者拉开了距离。而华泰证券、中信建投、申万宏源、国泰海通等4家券商的表现则不相上下,财务顾问业务净收入均在2.2亿~2.6亿元之间。

  值得一提的是,多家头部券商均在年报中以不同的统计口径表示,自家公司的并购重组业务位居行业第一或第二。如果结合年报中的财务顾问业务净收入的分项目指标看,并购重组财务顾问业务净收入(含境内、境外)前三强依次是中金公司(4.18亿元)、中信证券(2.72亿元)、华泰证券(0.48亿元);如果从财务顾问参与并购事件的规模来看,以并购交易完成日为统计口径,前三强则依次是中信证券、中金公司、中信建投。

  并购重组活跃度有望持续提升

  证券时报记者进一步统计数据发现,因财务顾问业务收入增长,部分券商投行业绩的下滑态势也得到了缓解。

  比如中金公司,该公司2024年投行业务手续费净收入的同比降幅,已从2023年的47.16%收窄至16%。在头部券商阵营中,这一降幅是最小的,这跟财务顾问业务对投行业务的贡献度提高有一定关系。数据显示,中金公司2024年财务顾问业务净收入占投行业务净收入的比重为30%,较2023年增长了10个百分点。申万宏源、国海证券、中信证券亦是如此,财务顾问业务对其投行业绩的贡献度都有所提升。

  展望未来,多家机构研判,并购重组市场的活跃度有望持续提升,投行业务将迎来长期高质量发展。

  近日,普华永道发布的报告认为,得益于持续进行的国企改革带来的大规模交易、跨国公司采取优化投资组合的措施,以及中国资本对海外投资需求的增长,尤其是对东南亚地区的投资以及大量私募股权项目拟退出的需求,预计2025年的并购交易量将在2024年的基础上达到两位数的增长。

  多家券商也在2024年年报中强调,将继续深入把握并购重组的业务机会。东兴证券称,将服务科技型企业整合升级,积极拓展新兴产业并购业务领域,加强与集团和公司内部相关部门及市场私募股权投资机构合作,充分挖掘上市公司客户资源,支持产业整合,赋能客户产业转型升级。

  (文章来源:证券时报)

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