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  来源:斑马消费

  2024年财报相继披露,一场黄酒企业关于“生存与突围”的较量已然浮出水面。

  会稽山凭借高端化战略迅猛发展,连续两年营收、扣非净利实现双位数增长;古越龙山则陷入困境,扣非净利微增,毛利率小幅下滑。

  金枫酒业处境更为艰难,已连续五年扣非净利为负,深陷亏损泥沼。

  行业持续低迷,高端化成为黄酒企业的发力重点。这究竟是引领行业破局的蜜糖,还是加剧困境的砒霜?

  冰火两重天

  2024年的黄酒市场,喜忧参半。

  喜的是,2024年,黄酒三巨头营收合计41.45亿元,是近五年三家营收首次迎来两位数增长。

  并且,近年来,白酒、啤酒、红酒均承压,恰恰是一度被冷落的黄酒,整体表现不错。2024年,葡萄酒、啤酒下滑,白酒虽然增长,但马太效应增强,黄酒行业算是仅有的强势板块。

  愁的是,黄酒三巨头的成绩,正在持续分化。

  会稽山(601579.SH)作为行业老二,凭借高端化、年轻化的战略,业绩快速增长。2024年,实现营收16.31亿元,同比增长15.6%;扣非净利润1.78亿元,同比增长14.83%。与行业老大古越龙山(600059.SH)之间的差距进一步缩小,归母净利润更是已近相当。

  更令人瞩目的是,会稽山中高端产品毛利率飙升至61.57%,整体毛利率同比增长11个百分点至52.08%。

  反观古越龙山,虽仍稳坐营收榜首,但瓶颈明显。2024年营收19.36亿元,同比仅增长8.55%;归母净利润为2.06亿元,近乎腰斩;扣非净利润1.98亿元,同比微增3.52%。而这已是古越龙山第四次业绩失约了。

  与会稽山形成鲜明对比的是,古越龙山中高档酒和普通酒的毛利率均较去年同期有所下降,整体毛利率也从2023年的37.58%下滑至37.16%。

  黄酒两强出现业绩分化,金枫酒业(600616.SH)的处境更堪称“水深火热”。顶着中国名牌七连冠的光环,2024年营收却只有5.78亿元,微增0.87%;归母净利润暴跌94.49%,仅剩576.14万元;扣非净利润为-140.86万元,连续五年亏损。

  保守or激进

  黄酒三巨头的差距为何越拉越大?这既藏在它们的历史基因里,也写进了各自的战略选择中。

  20世纪80年代前,黄酒还是中国酒桌上的“主角”,后来却被白酒赶超,到2016年后,市场份额被彻底碾压。在行业困局下,古越龙山、会稽山、金枫酒业的每一步,都肩负着拯救黄酒产业的重任。

  古越龙山前身为1951年的绍兴酿酒厂,1997年上市,是中国黄酒第一股;会稽山始于1743年“云集酒坊”,2014年上市,是唯一的民营上市黄酒企业;金枫酒业前身为上海市第一食品股份有限公司,1992年上市,2008年通过资产重组,转型专注黄酒主业。

  初期,三家差距微小,均有机会领跑。2015年财报显示,古越龙山、会稽山、金枫酒业营收分别为13.76亿元、9.15亿元、10.67亿元,扣非净利0.86亿元、1.08亿元、0.73亿元。

  到10年后的2024年,各家公司的发展高下立现。期间,古越龙山营收增长40.7%,扣非净利同比增长130%;会稽山营收增长78.2%,扣非净利增长64.8%;再看金枫酒业,营收出现“腰斩式”下滑,锐减46%,扣非净利连续亏损。

  业绩分化的背后,是三家企业战略选择与执行能力的深度较量。

  金枫酒业的衰落,更像是过于保守导致的悲剧:过度依赖江浙沪“老巢”,全国市场开拓迟迟不动;产品口味、包装跟不上消费者的喜好;2017年还主动缩减广告宣传费,加速品牌“隐身”。

  古越龙山一度凭着国企的底子和先发优势,稳坐龙头,后续也早早布局高端化,却因人力成本和材料成本相对较高,以及“高低价差”导致产品结构失衡——普通酒走量却低毛利,高端酒叫好不叫座,使得业绩增长缓慢。

  反观会稽山,2022年中建信入驻后,通过制定行业标准、打造文化IP、推出气泡黄酒等创新产品,聚焦高端化与年轻化,营收和归母净利润连续两年增速超15%。

  不可否认,会稽山的崛起带有“矮子里面拔将军”的色彩,但黄酒行业深陷下行周期太久了,相较于保守求稳、收缩战线,激进式改革方能带来一线生机。

  转型迷局

  黄酒未来该怎么走?摆在面前的只剩两条路:年轻化和高端化。

  但现实给了行业一记重拳——大把真金白银砸向年轻化,换来的却是水花寥寥。古越龙山“状元红”旗下“啡黄腾达”咖啡黄酒,2024年上半年销售额仅244万元,占总营收0.27%;会稽山“一日一熏”气泡黄酒截至2024年6月19日,销售额仅占上半年营收2.3%。

  此路难走,高端化几乎成了黄酒突围的最后希望。2024年度财报发布不久,古越龙山与会稽山罕见同步提价,试图推动“黄酒价值回归”。

  高端化战略看似美好,实则暗藏陷阱——品牌培育的巨额投入、消费者对高价黄酒的接受度、成本与利润的艰难平衡,每一步都如履薄冰。

  2024年,会稽山营销费用激增60.25%,但营收仅同比增长15.6%;古越龙山九年内八次调价,仍难扭转毛利率下滑趋势。

  从消费端看,黄酒的“低价心智”早已根深蒂固。数据显示,2024年白酒行业500ml均价超40元,而黄酒均价不足10元。即便会稽山高端产品毛利率可观,但其线上销售主力仍为25元/瓶的五年陈产品。

  行业层面的结构性矛盾更不容忽视。《中国黄酒行业发展现状及市场竞争格局分析报告》显示,2016-2023年,规模以上黄酒企业数量从112家缩减至81家,累计完成销售收入由2016年的198.23亿元降至2023年的85.47亿元。

  面对头部企业涨价推进高端化,在需求萎缩的背景下,其他玩家有可能继续选择低价,抢占平价市场。

  站在行业变革的十字路口,黄酒企业亟需回答:在追求“产品价值回归”的浪潮中,如何避免陷入“涨价—失市场”的恶性循环?当营销投入与利润增长难以平衡,又该如何在激进谋变与稳健运营间找到支点?

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  北京控股(00392)发布公告,附属公司燕京啤酒(000729.SZ)于2024年度取得营业收入146.67亿元(人民币,下同),同比增长3.20%;燕京啤酒股东应占溢利10.56亿元,同比增长63.74%。

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