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老同学HD完整版:带你领略亚洲风情,感受自拍艺术的无限可能!
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  日本上个月消费者通胀有所上升,部分原因是大米价格的大幅上涨。这一趋势原本有望巩固央行渐进加息的立场,但美国关税政策为经济前景蒙上阴影,使得货币政策走向更趋复杂。

  日本总务省周五发布的数据显示,3月剔除生鲜食品的核心CPI同比上涨3.2%,较2月3%的涨幅有所扩大,符合经济学家的预期。进一步剔除能源价格的核心-核心CPI同比上涨2.9%,与预期一致,创下去年3月以来最快增速。

  该数据料将增强日本央行官员对加息政策的信心——日本整体通胀水平已连续近三年维持在2%的目标之上。央行行长植田和男多次强调将根据物价走势调整利率,同时表示需密切关注美国关税政策的演变动向。

  尽管政府的公用事业补贴对通胀起到了一定的抑制作用,但物价仍在加快上涨。服务价格同比上涨1.4%,较2月1.3%的涨幅微升,与1月的涨幅持平。食品价格同比上涨7.4%,略低于前一个月的7.6%。日本的主食大米价格同比上涨92.1%,为1971年有数据记录以来的最快涨幅。

  NLI研究所经济研究负责人TaroSaito表示:“食品通胀是推动整体通胀的主要因素。进口价格并未大幅上涨,但食品通胀居高不下。这表明企业乐于提高价格,甚至在某些情况下,他们提价幅度超过了成本的增长。从日本央行的角度来看,通胀预期正在发生变化。”

  在经历了十多年的通缩之后,按照日本的标准,物价涨幅仍处高位。特别是大米价格飙升令首相石破茂倍感压力——NHK民调显示其支持率已跌至就任以来新低。政府与央行数据显示,消费者信心降至两年低点,而家庭通胀预期持续攀升。

  BloombergEconomics经济学家TaroKimura表示:“一方面通胀高企要求缩减刺激,另一方面美国关税威胁经济增长。我们预计央行将按兵不动至7月再行加息。”

  最新数据显示,日本的通胀率在七国集团(G7)经济体中仍处于最快水平,并且是G7中唯一面临关税压力且通胀呈上升趋势的国家。据报道称,除了关税之外,生活成本的上升引发了议员们对于在可能于7月举行的选举前发放现金或退税问题的讨论。石破茂在试图为其少数派政府争取支持时,可能更难拒绝这些要求。

  分析人士预计,由于劳动力短缺、原材料成本上涨及日元持续疲软,企业转嫁成本压力将持续推高未来数月通胀水平。

  ResonaHoldings高级策略师KeiichiIguchi表示:“考虑到关税因素,央行加息可能性已大幅降低。即便CPI强劲,日元也难以走强。”

  根据日本市场研究公司TeikokuDatabank的一项调查显示,4月食品涨价种类将创18个月来首次突破4000项。

  NLI的Saito表示:“数据证实在美国关税前日本通胀完全符合央行预期。但关税无疑将拖累经济,原定半年一次的加息节奏可能需要调整。”

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