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  美国经济2025年可能会因为外国游客减少和海外对其产品的抵制而损失大几百亿美元收入,使经济衰退风险居高不下的因素越来越多。

  美国国际贸易署周一公布的数据显示,3月乘机抵达美国的非公民人数同比下降近10%。高盛集团预计,访客减少和抵制在最坏的情境下今年可能导致美国国内生产总值受到0.3%的冲击,损失相当于近900亿美元。

  新冠防疫措施的解除刺激了国际旅行复苏,近年来外国游客成为推动美国经济的一股顺风。但在边境敌意加剧、地缘政治摩擦升级以及全球经济面临不确定性的情况下,许多潜在访客正在重新考虑他们的度假计划。

  加拿大摄影师CurtisAllen就是其中之一。他在唐纳德·特朗普对他的祖国征收惩罚性关税并坚持要将加拿大变成美国第51个州后取消了赴美度假。多年来Allen和他的伴侣多次前往俄勒冈州露营,但今年他们将在不列颠哥伦比亚省内各地旅行。

  “我们不会只呆在家里,”34岁的Allen说,“同样的钱我们会花到其它地方。”

  Allen的动作还不止于此。他取消了Netflix账户并主动避免在商店买到进口的美国商品。

  “现在我们要花双倍的时间,因为我们要搞清楚商品的产地,”他说。

  国际贸易署的数据显示,去年国际游客在美国的消费达到了创纪录的2540亿美元。展望2025年,该机构信心满满。它3月初预计美国今年将迎来7700万访客,虽然略低于2019年创下的纪录但会在2026年创出新高。

  但不久后不有关外国人在美国机场遭粗暴拘留的报道开始登上头条,还涉及到来自法国和德国等地的旅客。加拿大的一些大型公共机构目前已建议员工避免前往美国旅行,其中就包括一家养老金管理公司和一间龙头医院。

  彭博行业研究的分析发现,国际游客在美国的近200亿美元零售花销可能面临风险。

  急剧回调的先兆已经显现。美国劳工统计局4月10日发布的月度消费者价格报告显示,机票、酒店价格和汽车租赁费3月都录得下降。高盛和汇丰控股的经济学家表示,包括外国游客在内的需求减少可能发挥了作用。

  InflationInsights总裁OmairSharif指出,酒店价格下降的原因是东北部地区猛跌了近11%驱动,可能是当地的加拿大人减少所致。

  “就我们所知道的加拿大旅游游客减少情况,该地区恐怕情况有些堪忧,”Sharif说。

  彩虹航空直升机观光公司(RainbowAirHelicopterTours)的销售与市场经理PatrickKeyes表示,对这家在尼亚加拉大瀑布经营的企业而言“时机非常微妙”。该公司刚刚在夏日旺季来临前投资2500万美元用于新大楼建设、扩充机队以及一项虚拟现实项目。“我们正在等待接下来的冲击,”他说。

  OAGAviationWorldwide的报告显示,加拿大飞往美国的航班预订量截至9月底同比下降了70%。与此同时,欧洲游客通过雅高集团旗下酒店在美国的夏季预订量也下降了25%。该公司首席执行官SébastienBazin表示,这可能与口岸拘留事件相关,而这类事件制造了“负面舆论”,并将游客推向其它目的地。

  “美国的关税声明和对历史盟友更激进的立场损害了全球对美国的观感,”高盛经济学家JosephBriggs和MeganPeters在3月31日的一份报告中说。

  他们表示:“除了我们在美国GDP预测中已经纳入的关税直接负面影响及外国报复措施对出口的拖累之外,这一逆风因素又增添了一个理由,说明2025年美国GDP增长可能低于市场共识预期”。

  尽管前景恶化,俄勒冈州旅游局首席执行官ToddDavidson却表示将继续努力吸引外国游客。他的团队刚刚结束在温哥华一个冒险旅游会议上推介该州的行程。未来几周他们将接待来自英国、印度和巴西等地的销售及营销合作伙伴。

  与此同时,他们也在考虑随着形势的发展是否需要将策略转向更多对国内游客倾斜。

  “俄勒冈现在和将来都不会把目光从这些国际市场上移开,”Davidson说,“当我们的国际游客觉得已经准备好回来的时候,我们就在这里。”

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