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  来源:尺度商业

  文|刘振涛

  半年前,规模最大的上市农商行——重庆农村商业银行(下称“渝农商行”)董事长辞任,作为当时唯一的执行董事,行长隋军代为履行董事长。

  代履行董事长后,隋军成了上市农商行中“最忙”行长,一人身兼三职:行长、董事长、董秘。

  如今,渝农商行迎来了新董事长,刘小军被董事会选举为新任董事长。行长隋军也终于结束“一人兼三职”的情况,肩上的担子松一下了。

  渝农商行是首家A+H股上市的农商行。上市以来,渝农商行的规模不断扩张,2024年末,总资产规模突破1.5万亿元,是上市规模最大的农商行,营收也结束连续两年下降的情况,营收与净利双双增长。

  不过,整体稳健的渝农商行当下也面临规模扩张放缓、归母净利润增幅收窄、潜在不良风险等挑战。随着新董事长的到来,渝农商行将迎来什么样的改变呢?

  行长“减负”,老将空降任董事长

  近日,渝农商行发布公告称,公司董事会选举刘小军为执行董事候选人,同时选举刘小军为新董事长,刘小军的任职资格需待股东大会通过以及监管部门的核准。

  渝农商行的上一任董事长为谢文辉。2024年10月,谢文辉被调任至重庆渝富控股集团任职董事长,此后渝农商行董事长一职空缺近半年,由行长隋军代为履职。

  资料显示,渝农商行新董事长刘小军是金融行业的老将,曾先后在建设银行、中信信托、重庆投资发展有限公司内部任职。

  在建设银行期间,刘小军先后担任了建设银行总行国际业务部业务副经理与房地产金融业务部业务经理。2006年,刘小军从建行离任,前往中信信托任职。在中信信托,他任职近18年,任职期间,刘小军职务一路晋升,从业务部门高级经理晋升至中信信托副总经理。

  2024年初,刘小军从中信信托离任,被任命为重庆发展投资公司党委书记、董事长。在担任重庆发展投资公司任职一年左右,其就被任命为渝农商行的董事长。

  从国有大行到信托,从信托到资产管理公司,再到最大规模的农商行,刘小军的金融从业经历十分丰富。

  对于刘小军空降担任渝农商行董事长,市场人士表示,其有丰富的投资管理经验,对银行的财富管理,资产管理业务等或将带来提升。

  如何将自身过往任职经验,与渝农商行的实际经营状况充分结合,持续有效推动该行发展和业绩回暖,或许是刘小军上任后的重任。

  营收重回增长,资产质量风险引关注

  翻阅渝农商行2024年年报,从规模来看,渝农商行扩表明显。

  截至2024年末,渝农商行总资产规模达1.51万亿元,较2023年末增长了0.07万亿元,增幅达5.1%。其中,贷款余额达7142.73亿元,同比增长5.55%;存款规模达9419.46亿元,同比增长5.10%。

  渝农商行的规模增速相比之前有所放缓。根据渝农商行历年财报,2020年至2023年,渝农商行总资产规模增速分别为10.31%、11.44%、6.79%、6.60%。

  渝农商行的总资产规模在上市农商行中规模最大。根据该行2025年一季度业绩预告,公司的资产规模又进一步扩张,预计总资产达到1.61万亿元。

  在资产规模扩张的情况下,渝农商行的营收与净利双双实现增长。2024年,渝农商行实现营收282.61亿元,同比增长1.09%;实现归母净利润115.13亿元,同比增长5.60%。2024年渝农商行的营收增速转正,结束了2022年和2023年连续两年下降的情况。

  不过,渝农商行的归母净利润增速放缓。2021年至2023年,该行的归母净利润增速分别为13.79%、7.49%、6.10%。

  观察营收结构,投资业务收益大幅增长,成为了营收增速转正的关键力量。

  2024年末,渝农商行的净息差继续收窄为1.61%,较2023年末下降了0.12个百分点。净息差收窄影响下,渝农商行的利息净收入为224.94亿元,同比下降4.25%。

  在利息净收入下降的情况下,渝农商行的非利息净收入实现大幅增长。2024年末,该行非利息净收入为57.67亿元,同比增长了29.23%。

  拆分非利息净收入,手续费及佣金净收入为16.12亿元,同比下降10%;其他非利息净收入41.55亿元,同比增长55.53%。

  其他非利息净收入中,投资收益成为了主力。2024年末,投资收益达41.99亿元,同比增长了93.56%,占到了非利息净收入的72%。

  渝农商行对此表示,2024年本集团加强市场研判,优化交易策略,丰富投资品种,把握交易机会,增厚金融资产整体收益。

  实际上,回顾渝农商行过往的财报,发现近年来,渝农商行在投资业务上发力明显,一步步增厚非利息收入,进而在主业创收下降的情况下,稳固营收。

  根据渝农商行过往年报,2020年至2023年,该行的投资收益分别为9.29亿元、11.56亿元、18.22亿元、21.69亿元。2024年与2020年相比,5年时间,渝农商行的投资收益增长了3倍多。

  银行投资收益显著增长,成为缓解营收压力、稳定利润表现的重要支撑。

  不过,渝农商行整体好转的情况下,资产质量方面存在潜在风险,需要新董事长以及管理层来解决。

  2024年末,渝农商行的不良贷款率为1.18%,较2023年末下降了0.10个百分点。不良贷款余额达84.20亿元,较2023年末增长了3.61亿元。

  在渝农商行的贷款五级分类中,2024年末,渝农商行的关注类贷款余额为104.46亿元,较2023年末增长了27.48亿元,增长了35.6%。

  关注类贷款的定义为尽管借款人有能力偿还贷款本息,但存在一些可能对偿还产生不利影响因素的贷款。从定义来看,关注类贷款存在着向不良贷款转变的风险。渝农商行的关注类贷款规模增长,后期向不良贷款迁徙的风险较大。

  此外,2024年渝农商行的正常类贷款迁徙率达1.73%,较2023年上升;关注类贷款的迁徙率达31.39%,较2023年上升。

  贷款迁徙率又称信用风险迁徙,指代着银行各类贷款向下迁徙的程度。正常贷款与关注类贷款的迁徙率上升,后期向下迁徙风险加大,资产质量存在风险。

  渝农商行是目前规模最大的上市农商行,排在身后的其他农商行也都在奋起追赶。新的董事长如何带领渝农商行稳固第一的位置,进一步提升发展?我们将保持关注!

  SK海力士公司(000660.KS)警告称,尽管大型科技供应商对人工智能(AI)存储芯片的需求依然强劲,但2025年下半年的市场波动将会加剧,这反映出美国关税政策带来的不确定性。

  这家韩国公司公布,其今年3月所在季度的营业收入同比大幅增长158%,超出预期,部分原因是在特朗普实施关税政策前进行了囤货。SK海力士坚持此前的预测,即对英伟达公司(NVDA)人工智能加速器至关重要的高带宽内存的需求将翻倍,而这种需求反过来又推动了像微软公司(MSFT)和亚马逊公司(AMZN)等企业建造的大型数据中心的发展。

  韩国里昂证券(CLSASecuritiesKorea)分析师桑吉夫・拉纳表示,SK海力士维持其高带宽内存(HBM)出货量增长的预期,这是令人鼓舞的。“每个人心中的关键问题是,‘关税在今年晚些时候将如何影响科技产品的需求呢?’”

  全球各地的公司都在为应对美国的关税政策做好准备,因为这些因素可能会引发需求放缓。微软已经缩减了其在全球范围内的数据中心项目,而分析师称亚马逊也暂停了某些类型的数据中心租赁业务。

  这些担忧已经减缓了SK海力士的股价上涨势头,其股价今年仅上涨了3%。周四下午,该公司股价在首尔下跌了1.7%,与大盘走势一致。

  首席财务官金宇铉(KimWoo-hyun)在财报电话会议上对分析师表示,目前很难评估美国关税政策的影响。

  他说:“随着关税法规和出口限制等保护主义政策的扩大,预测未来的市场状况比以往任何时候都更具挑战性。”

  他还称,虽然美国客户约占公司收入的60%,但直接出口到美国的比例“并不是很高”,向美国客户发货的存储芯片通常会运往美国以外的地区。

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