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国有六大行2024年年报已经全部披露完毕。年报数据显示,工农中建交和邮储6家银行截至2024年末的资产规模合计达199.68万亿元,较上一年同比增长7.87%,逼近200万亿元关口。其中,工行、农行和建行3家银行的资产规模均在40万亿元以上,交行和邮储银行则不足20万亿元。从业绩来看,六大行归属于母公司股东的净利润(下称“净利润”)在2024年全部取得同比增长,且不良资产拨备覆盖率均在200%以上;从资产质量来看,六大行的不良贷款比率也维持稳中有降态势。

净利润全部同比增长

农业银行增幅最大

年报数据显示,六大行2024年净利润全部实现同比增长,其中,农业银行以4.73%的增幅居首,中国银行以2.56%的增幅紧随其后,其余4家银行的同比增幅则不足1%。

华安证券分析师刘锦慧指出,农业银行2024年营收、利润增长双提速,跃居国有大行之首,得益于该行实行的县域金融战略,即通过深耕三农金融、中西部地区,网点数量在国有四大行中居前。县域金融战略带动规模增长领先国有大行同业,负债端具备低成本优势。她预计该行2025—2027年归母净利润有望分别同比增长1.26%、1.36%、2.37%,维持“买入”评级。

记者注意到,虽然从数据来看,六大行在近三年里(2022—2024)保持了净利润的同比增长,但增幅较前两年已有不同程度缩减,以邮储银行为例,其净利润同比增幅从2022年的11.89%降至2023年的1.23%,2024年进一步降至0.24%。

其他业绩指标中,农业银行、邮储银行、中国银行和交通银行的2024年营业收入都实现了同比增长,但工商银行和建设银行不仅2024年当年的营业收入同比下滑,且同比下滑态势已持续三年;从非息收入占比来看,交通银行虽然近三年逐年下滑,但仍以34.64%的高占比在六大行中居首,其余5家银行的非息收入占比均较上一年有所提升,比例居于17%—30%区间不等。

华创证券分析师贾靖认为,作为唯一一家总部位于上海的国有行,交通银行深度覆盖中国经济较为发达的长三角地区,并在近年来发力零售业务,零售贷款和财富管理业务均增势较好。结合公司2024年年报和宏观经济形势,预计该行2025—2027年净利润增速分别为1.9%、5.5%和6%,维持“推荐”评级。

不良贷款比率普遍下降

邮储银行比率最低

国有行在资产质量上继续表现稳健。年报数据显示,仅邮储银行的不良贷款比率较上一年有所上升,其余5家银行的不良贷款比率均较上一年有不同程度下降。值得一提的是,虽然不良贷款比率有所走高,但邮储银行仍是六大行中唯一不良贷款比率低于1%的国有行。

光大证券分析师王一峰认为,邮储银行资产质量优质、存款来源稳定、资产端优化空间大、在县域金融领域独具禀赋优势,且在着力打造差异化增长极,预计未来随着费率定价持续优化,有望实现更好的盈利回报。

年报数据显示,六家国有银行的不良贷款拨备覆盖率均在200%以上,其中,农业银行以299.61%的比率居首,邮储银行紧随其后;而交通银行和中国银行的不良贷款拨备覆盖率偏低。

记者还注意到,3月30日,建行、中行、交行、邮储四家银行发布公告将实施定增,定增规模分别为1050亿元、1650亿元、1200亿元、1300亿元,共计5200亿元。中泰证券分析师戴志锋认为,长期来看,本次定增完成后四家大行的资本将得到进一步夯实,有利于巩固提升稳健经营发展的能力,更好地发挥服务实体经济的主力军作用。记者赵琦薇

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