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蜜芽192 .MON永不失联 - 带你深入了解各种文化与观念的碰撞。
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作者:每日怡见

巴菲特:投资学不存在了,劳资研究了一辈子,最后就得出一句话,想要成为股市,首先你要成为美国总统。。。

美国东部时间4月9日早上,懂王神秘兮兮的发了一条推文:这是一个最好的时间点,快买!

结果。

美股暴涨。

上周,道指狂飙近3000点,标普500指数涨超9%,纳指涨超12%。

其中,美股七巨头全都暴涨,苹果涨15.33%,重回全球市值第一;微软涨10.13%,英伟达涨18.72%,亚马逊涨11.98%,谷歌C涨9.88%,Meta涨14.76%,特斯拉涨22.69%。

一夜之间,涨了几万亿美元。

其夸张程度,简直令人咋舌。

而造成这一切的原因,都是因为懂王在发完推特不久之后,就宣布将会对75个国家和地区暂停90天征收关税,只保留他们10%的基础关税。

大家还记得前两天吗?

白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特跑出来说:总统正考虑对部分国家暂停征收90天关税。

但是这条消息还没出来半个小时,白宫就跑出来辟谣,说刚刚那条是假消息。

懂王还跑出来一再强调自己不会改变政策。

可没想到,短短两天之后,他就把自己拉出来的屎给吃进去了。。。

4月10日,就有记者问他:“你前两天不还说绝对不会改变政策,否认推迟90天吗?”

懂王:“你得有灵活性呀。”

首先,之前一向强硬的懂王,为什么要突然宣布对部分国家暂停90天关税的这条消息呢?

总结起来有三个原因。

1,为了赚钱。

2,为了安抚华尔街。

3,他软了。

首先,为了赚钱,这很好理解,毕竟在上任之前,懂王就发行了以他自己名字命名的数字货币,狠狠的赚了几百亿美元。

他尝到甜头了。

其次,两天前那场乌龙事件,虽然从新闻发布到白宫辟谣,连半个小时都不到,但就在这短短的半个小时里,美股三大股指全面翻红,纳指涨超3%,标普500指数涨2%,道指涨超1%。

于是,懂王就心想,这才30分钟不到就涨成了这样,那要是给他一天时间,我还不得起飞啊?

所以,在这条消息发出之后,他自己的家族就已经赚了300亿美元。

还有他的那些朋友们。

在白宫的椭圆形办公室里,懂王就指着其中一个老头说:“这是查尔斯·施瓦布,它不仅仅是一家公司,他实际上是一个人,他今天赚了25亿美元。”

然后又指向旁边一人:“他今天赚了9亿美元。”

这都已经不避人了,公开在利用手中的权力,给自己家族和身边的朋友们谋取利益。

之前我们还觉得佩洛西的丈夫是美国股神,可是和这帮人相比,那简直就是小巫见大巫了。

人家一条推特,就能赚几十亿,几百亿,民主党还怎么跟人家比啊?

不过懂王有一点比较好的是,他赚钱的时候,还知道提前告诉粉丝们,你要是虔诚的懂王信徒,看到懂王推特之后,立刻就去抄底美股,那你今天也赚翻了。

不过你也别高兴的太早,因为像你如此虔诚,如此相信懂王的话,下一次,他再发布某个加密货币的时候,你就会成为被他收割的韭菜。。。

懂王这么做的第二点原因,当然是为了安抚华尔街。

他有两个基本盘,上头的是华尔街金主,下头的才是几千万底层红脖子。

这两个群体,他哪一个都得罪不起。

这几天的关税战直接就导致美债遭遇抛售,收益飙升,美债价格暴跌。

4月7日,10年期美债收益率飙升16个基点,8日再度大涨13个基点。

4月9日,10年期美债收益率一度升破4.5%关口,30年期美债收益率更是直冲5%关口。

这里要解释一下,美债价格和收益率的关系,为啥收益率暴涨,美债价格反而暴跌了呢?

那是因为债券价格=未来现金流(利息+本金)的现值之和

比如,一张面值100美元、年利率5%、10年期的债券,若市场收益率从5%升至6%,价格就会从100美元跌至约92美元。

此时债券的到期收益率才会与市场利率一致。

所以,债券价格与收益率是反向关系的。

现在,30年期美债的收益率已经上升到了5%,首先,这会增加美国政府和企业融资成本,增加他们的利息支出。

其次,这将会引发全球投资者抛售美债,从而引发评级机构下调美国主权信用评级。

然后居民消费,房地产市场都会受到巨大的影响。

所以,懂王昨晚在接受采访的时候就说了,相比于美股,他其实更关心美债。

宣布暂停90天关税,也算是给美债收益率减减压。

第三点,就是懂王还是软了。

他一开始很硬气啊,想通过极限施压,直接掀桌子,逼我们就范,想让我们给他打电话认输。

可我们不仅没跪,反而还宣布了对等反制。

我们这一招打在了他的七寸上,打的就是华尔街。

所以才撑了一天不到,懂王就软了。

但是他又不能在选民们面前表现出他软了,所以他并没有宣布取消对中国商品的关税,而是宣布暂停对75个国家的关税,只保留10%。

那么,我们通过转口贸易,通过这75个国家倒个几手,商品依然可以卖到美国去。

相比之前来说,只是多了10%的关税和一点运输成本,影响并不大。

明眼人都看得出来,懂王对全球加征关税的目的,就是为了堵住所有口子,就是冲着我们中国来的。

要不然之前越南找他谈,主动要求降低关税,姿态放的那么低,他却还是不同意呢。

就是在担心这个。

这就像是盛满水的水桶,只要在底部戳上一个洞,不管你盛的水再多,最终都会哗啦啦的流掉。

国际贸易也是一样,除非你美国对全世界宣战,拒绝全世界的商品进入。

你只要开一个口子,不管他是从欧洲,从越南,从墨西哥,还是非洲进来的,最终都只是换了个包装,而产地,还是madeinchina。

这就是世界第一工业国的优势。

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