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  伯虎财经

  透过青岛啤酒2024年的财报,可以看到整个啤酒行业当下的生存情况。

  2024年,青岛啤酒实现营业收入321.38亿元,同比下降5.30%,减少了约18亿元;归母净利润为43.45亿元,同比增长1.81%;扣非归母净利润为39.51亿元,同比增长了6.19%。

  业内观察者指出,“营收下降超5%、归母净利润仅增长不到2%,这在青岛啤酒近些年的发展历程中,是罕见的。”

  青岛啤酒营收下降5%,映射啤酒行业的窘境

  太平洋证券给出的分析是,2024年,青岛啤酒销量承压,啤酒销量受需求影响有所下滑。

  据国家统计局数据显示,2024年中国规模以上啤酒企业累计产量3521.3万吨,同比下降0.6%。

  具体到青岛啤酒的发展,其2024年全年销量为753.8万千升,相较于2023年的800.7万千升,同比下降约5.9%。

  其中,青岛主品牌、其他品牌销量分别为434万吨、320万吨,同比下降4.8%、7.2%;青岛主品牌销量占比同比+0.4至57.6%,其中中高端以上产品实现销量315.4万千升,同比下降2.7%;青岛主品牌吨价同比下降0.26%,其他品牌吨加同比增长0.93%。

  渠道方面,餐饮、夜场等即饮市场/KA、流通等非即饮市场销量占公司销量比重分别约41.2%、58.8%。

  分区域,2024年山东、华北、华南、华东、东南、港澳及其他海外地区分别实现营收220.9亿元、78.0亿元、33.8亿元、25.0亿元、6.7亿元、5.4亿元,同比下降3.4%、2.2%、6.8%、9.9%、24.1%、24.2%,呈现全国区域普跌的情况。

  值得一提的是,除了青岛啤酒,百威亚太、华润啤酒等头部企业都面临着销量、营收和利润的多重挑战。百威亚太中国地区销量较上年同期下滑11.8%、华润啤酒下滑2.5%、重庆啤酒下滑0.75%。

  首先,2024年,全球经济增长放缓,国内经济虽保持稳定但仍面临一定压力,居民消费意愿和能力受到影响,对啤酒这类非必需消费品的消费支出有所控制。

  其次,消费者健康意识提升,对酒精饮料的消费更加理性,低酒精度、健康概念的饮品兴起,分流了部分啤酒消费群体。啤酒营销专家方刚指出,从消费需求角度看,人们日益追求健康,对于高酒精度、高能量饮食开始排斥的这部分消费者开始去接受一些无醇产品。

  据国际葡萄酒与烈酒数据分析公司IWSR发布的《2021年无、低酒精饮品战略研究》显示,2020年,无、低酒精饮品在整个酒精饮料市场中的份额达到了3%,预计到2024年,全球范围内的低、无酒精市场的销量预计较历史同期将增长34%。

  这其中,精酿啤酒、果味啤酒等品类涌入市场,成为年轻人的啤酒消费新选择,大大冲击了啤酒的原有地位。

  啤酒的“高端化”进程

  这些年,高端化一直是啤酒行业较为突出的趋势与话题。

  浦银国际在研报中指出,在消费趋势的引领下,中国啤酒行业领导者们正在经历快速的策略转型。销量的扩张已经不再是公司聚焦的重点,而通过推出高端产品与品牌来迎合消费者消费升级的需求,才是中国啤酒公司未来主要的发展方向。

  据统计,2019年,国内市场中高端(拉格)啤酒的占比只有11%,同期欧、美、日、韩的平均占比为40%,德、法、英等欧洲国家的这一数据更是接近60%。

  啤酒品牌将增长希望聚焦于高端化,在青岛啤酒2024年的财报数据中,可以进一步窥见这一趋势。

  目前,青岛啤酒已形成了较为完善的产品结构,超高端有“一世传奇”,高端有奥古特、鸿运当头等系列,中端主要是青岛经典、纯生系列,低端以崂山啤酒等部分地方品牌为主。

  2024年,青岛啤酒公司的吨价为4189.3元/吨,同比上涨0.5%。同时,青岛主品牌的吨价同比下降0.26%,其他品牌吨价同比上涨0.93%。可以看到,青岛啤酒的啤酒价格在往上提,且持续强化中高端产品发展。

  青岛啤酒在2024年报中表示,中高端产品的崛起、消费需求的多元化以及企业的多元化发展战略,为行业带来新的发展契机,啤酒行业整体盈利水平仍具提升空间。

  2024年3月,青啤五厂100万千升精酿基地及2500吨威士忌项目开工建设,总投资额超13亿元。与此同时,依靠青岛啤酒科技研发中心,年内研发推出了“奥古特A系列、尼卡希白啤、无醇啤酒系列”等新产品。

  不过,对于青岛啤酒而言,高端化既意味着新的突破,也有诸多挑战。尤其是,华润啤酒通过“喜力+雪花”双品牌协同发展,百威亚太在高端进口啤酒市场持续渗透。

  青岛啤酒的高端化虽未掉队,却也不容掉以轻心。中国啤酒的高端化发展已经从“价格升级”迈向“价值重构”,将进一步考验品牌的技术壁垒、品牌效应等能力。

  除了高端化,渠道发展也成为青岛啤酒们的增量探索方向。例如,青岛啤酒加快推进O2O、B2B、即时零售、社区团购等业务。目前,其已与美团闪购、华致酒行以及1919等平台合作。

  财报中提到,青岛啤酒2024年线上产品销量同比增长21%。同时,公司加快推进新鲜直送业务布局,青岛精品原浆和水晶纯生啤酒产品在24座城市实现新鲜直送。

  未来,啤酒行业竞争只会越来越激烈,留给青岛啤酒们的突围方向不外乎高端产品研发、渠道创新、全球化。

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