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证券日报网讯4月24日晚间,国联民生发布公告称,公司拟于2025年5月7日(星期三)16:00—17:00召开2024年度暨2025年第一季度业绩说明会。

  在美国总统唐纳德・特朗普征关税之前,客户纷纷囤货,这使得美国卡车司机运输的汽车零部件、家电和运动鞋的数量创下了纪录。然而,随着这些新关税开始抑制经济活动,该行业面临着放缓的局面。

  在特朗普于1月20日就职之前,规模达9060亿美元的美国货运业正从近三年的货运衰退中艰难复苏。如今,特朗普的进口关税已经生效,该行业原本所期望的反弹面临风险。

  罗珀科技公司(RoperTechnologies)旗下的DAT货运与分析公司的首席分析师迪恩・克罗克告诉路透社,由于企业为了避开关税,本月卡车司机的运输量比2021年疫情高峰期时还要多。

  但这种运输量掩盖了一些关键行业需求的恶化,尤其是占大型货运卡车吨英里数60%以上的国内制造业,以及海运进口行业。

  “随着这场正在爆发的贸易战,情况迅速恶化。”克罗克在谈到美国货运业的前景时说道。

  “就整车货运需求而言,没有一个信号是好的。”

  克罗克表示,截至周一,一辆被称为干货厢式挂车的半挂车货物的现货运费为每英里1.60美元(不含燃油费),略高于去年同期的每英里1.54美元。他预计2025年的货运量同比将再次持平,即便运费有所上涨,涨幅也会很小。

  “有关关税的讨论以及不稳定的贸易政策,使得托运商们的态度变得更加谨慎,这让市场的发展势头暂时停顿了下来。”奈特-斯威夫特运输控股公司(Knight-SwiftTransportationHoldings)首席执行官亚当・米勒在公司周三的财报电话会议上说道。

  他还表示,虽然奈特-斯威夫特在一些新合同中成功提高了运费,但如果货运量和竞争激烈的现货运费表现疲软,这种趋势也将面临风险。

  前路坎坷

  美国卡车司机行业的命运至关重要,因为它几乎涉及美国经济的各个领域,并且是最早反映商业活动变化的行业之一。

  美国卡车运输协会(AmericanTruckingAssociations)在1月曾预测,2025年该行业的货运量将增长1.6%。该协会没有回应置评请求。

  与此同时,至关重要的美国制造业在连续两个月增长后,于3月份出现了萎缩。

  由于截至3月份单户住宅建筑许可和开工数意外疲软,美国的住宅建设面临下滑风险。

  预测人士和一些港口高管表示,他们预计这种趋势最早从5月份开始就会逆转。

  同样,运输类股票也正遭受着与贸易战相关的冲击,而这些股票曾是特朗普再次当选后的最大赢家之一。

  截至周三收盘,道琼斯运输平均指数年初至今下跌了15.4%,而标准普尔500指数下跌了8.9%。

  以零售巨头沃尔玛为客户的JB亨特运输服务公司(J.B.Hunt)首席执行官雪莱・辛普森表示,许多美国货运公司的利润率已经很微薄,甚至几乎没有利润。激烈的竞争意味着运费的上涨跟不上不断攀升的运营成本。

  “我从未见过一场(货运)衰退持续三年之久。”辛普森在上周公司的财报电话会议上说道。

  “大家都在苦苦支撑。”

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