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孙志祥个人资料简介-传递温暖与力量,陪伴我的每一个孤独
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美团和京东正在上演2025年国内互联网领域的第一场大战。

从2月京东外卖正式上线,外卖平台竞相宣布为外卖骑手缴纳社保,到刚刚过去的周末美团和京东两家公司高管下场,即时零售的战火已然白热化。

4月15日,美团和京东公开上演了一场“现实的商战”。先是美团正式发布即时零售品牌“美团闪购”,该品牌的关键词包括“24小时陪伴消费者”“服务全国10亿消费者”“30分钟好货到手”。与此同时,美团闪购在视频号上发布了一条广告片,直接对比“闪购”和“网购”,背后传达的核心内容是“万物皆可外卖”。

值得注意的是,这条视频中出现了一句“你的东东再等等”,配图为一只狗,而京东的吉祥物Joy正是一只小白狗,这一信息不免引起网友们的联想。

随后,京东方面午间发文称“京东不打口水仗,但会坚持说实话”,除了宣布本季度将再招收不低于5万名全职外卖员,全额足额全部缴纳五险一金且所有费用都由公司承担,京东还表示,今天京东品质外卖订单量将超过500万单,因为都是品质堂食餐厅的外卖,GMV比“幽灵外卖”1000万单还大。

AI识股

美团对外宣布非餐饮品类即时零售日单量已突破1800万单,京东表示全国已经有超过十万家京东品牌线下店全部接入了秒送。美团宣传“30分钟万物到家”,京东强调“平均送达时间快于30分钟”。

在社交平台上,消费者们津津乐道两家公司的“你来我往”和谁家送的券大、点外卖更便宜,但对两家公司来说,真正的战场并不在于消费者们所理解的以餐饮为主的“外卖”。

伴随着即时零售行业高速发展,在餐饮之外,日用百货、3C家电、看病买药等各个品类的消费粘性和频次持续提升,当外卖平台介入更大的零售生意,当万物都可以通过外卖的方式触达消费者,美团闪购和京东自营秒送的正面交锋无法避免。

刘强东VS王莆中

京东宣称的“不打口水仗”,来自创始人刘强东的内部指示,而在此之前,京东方面的多次公开言论被外界解读为隔空喊话。

4月9日,蔚来创始人李斌在微博上晒出和刘强东的合影,两人在京东总部吃了一顿京东外卖,李斌问刘强东:“京东外卖是认真的吗?”刘强东回应:“当然了”。

京东官方账号很快在转发中写到:“我们认真为消费者严选品质堂食餐厅绝不让幽灵外卖肆虐,我们认真为全国骑手全额承担五险一金不让他们掏一分钱,我们认真为餐饮商家提供0佣金政策帮商家经营减负。”

AI识股

在此之前,京东外卖用“全年免佣金”“品质堂食餐饮商家”“骑手权益保障”一系列组合拳,快速搅动了市场格局已然稳固的外卖市场。

4月11日,京东集团CEO许冉接受媒体采访时表示,“外卖行业本就是一个宽广的赛道,第一它市场规模很大,第二增长依然还很快,我认为完全容得下多个平台。”

在京东持续主动对外表露对外卖业务的重视和野心之后,美团高管终于下场。4月12日,美团核心本地商业CEO王莆中在多个社交平台发文,表达了自己对于京东外卖的看法:“京东不是第一家想做外卖的公司,也可能不是最后一家。阿里、滴滴、字节不是都做过,滴滴目前在海外也还在做呢。”

王莆中还透露了美团非餐饮品类的订单突破1800万单,“可以说让某些公司如鲠在喉,如芒在背”,以及放话“即时零售的发展大势是挡不住的,‘狗急跳墙’也好,‘围魏救赵’也罢,‘30分钟送万物’创造的新体验一定会满足更多用户需要,把那些大而无当的仓配体系扫进历史垃圾堆。”

AI识股

王莆中是美团核心决策层S-team成员,过去一年,美团进行过多次组织架构调整,王莆中逐渐走向台前。去年4月,美团创始人王兴发布内部邮件宣布,整合美团平台、到店事业群、到家事业群和基础研发平台将合并成为“核心本地商业”板块,王莆中出任核心本地商业CEO。

需要指出的是,王莆中还提及了京东旗下的达达,“如果把外卖当作即时零售(30分钟送万物)的一部分,达达和京东到家早在2014年就开始了,只不过收效甚微。”

去年初,达达“自曝”财务问题,之后管理层更换,京东也同时对达达“动刀”。2024年是京东即时零售全面升级的一年:推出全品类满29元免运费,京东到家、京东小时达升级为“京东秒送”,达达快送更名为达达秒送;与此同时,京东挖来原美团高管郭庆全面接管达达。今年1月,京东提出私有化达达,被认为是为京东外卖上线提前布局。

王莆中针对京东外卖和即时零售发表观点之后,刘强东打出了“社会价值”牌。据媒体报道,京东集团新闻发言人齐珊珊发布朋友圈截图显示,刘强东称:“不要和人打口仗,不能产生社会价值。”随后,刘强东在去年的一段内部讲话流出,他谈到:“我给京东外卖定一条规矩,京东外卖永远赚的净利润不允许超过5%。”

500万单VS1800万单

3月24日,京东外卖上线40天时,京东对外宣布日订单量突破100万,22天之后,这个数字来到500万。

如果仅仅从订单量的角度,京东外卖对美团和饿了么并没有造成威胁。中国互联网络信息中心和中国饭店协会外卖专业委员会的数据显示,中国共有5.45亿名网上外卖用户,外卖市场规模约为1.2万亿,而根据多家机构报告,美团和饿了么已经占据了外卖市场超过九成的份额。

从财报数据来看,美团在去年中报和三季报中给出的季度即时配送交易笔数分别是61.67亿、70.78亿,计算下来美团在去年二、三季度的日均订单量分别是6700万、7700万笔,其中在立秋当天达到即时配送日订单量峰值9800万单。

从京东方面的对外表态来看,相比订单量的快速增长,京东更侧重于订单的质量。正如京东高管在接受采访时侧重强调行业的痛点,例如食品安全隐患、商家佣金问题、骑手社会保障。从上线初期,京东就强调招募只限“品质堂食餐厅”。宣布最新订单量时,京东方面强调,因为都是品质堂食餐厅的外卖,GMV比“幽灵外卖”1000万单还大。

当京东围绕餐饮外卖试图深入美团腹地时,不可忽视的是,美团即时配送的影响力早已不局限在餐饮赛道,京东的传统优势品类也正在遭受威胁。

需要指出的是,上述美团即时配送交易笔数,是包括餐饮外卖和美团闪购业务的交易笔数。在此次美团闪购拥有独立入口之前,这一品牌在消费者中的认知度较为模糊,但自2018年在美团内部上线以来,已经积累了数亿高频消费者,服务品类逐步拓展至生活万物。

从美团近年来财报披露的内容来看,闪购业务被高层提及的次数越来越多。去年第三季度,美团闪购日均单量突破1000万单,闪购用户数及交易频次均实现双位数的同比增长。美团CEO王兴在点评该业务时表示:“美团闪购对公司未来的发展极具潜力,我们在提供配送服务的所有城市、县城和小镇都看到美团闪购巨大的增长机会,我们会启动支持计划,以进一步提升即时零售的渗透率。”

如今,美团闪购作为独立品牌发布,同时披露非餐饮品类即时零售日单量已突破1800万单,无疑是向外界传递这一业务在集团内部的重要性升级。

AI识股

从美团App中“闪购”的类目来看,蔬菜水果、超市便利、手机家电、商场专卖被放在显眼的位置。从消费者的反馈来看,近年来,在外卖平台上购买MUJI产品、iPhone手机已经不是新鲜事。对于手机家电品类,美团闪购给出的配送时效已经达到了分钟级别:苹果27分钟达、小米25分钟达、华为37分钟达。

面对美团闪购的主动出击,京东在当天的回应中除了传递骑手、外卖订单量相关信息,也提到了“自营秒送”电商业务,全国已经有超过十万家京东品牌线下店全部接入了秒送,平均送达时间快于30分钟。

一个强调“30分钟万物到家”,一个拿出“自营+秒送”,显然,两家巨头接下来的交锋会更加激烈。

百亿补贴加码到千亿投入

回顾过去十多年的互联网大战,电商、团购、旅游、打车、共享单车、短视频、移动支付……每一个行业内巨头的形成都离不开真金白银的投入,互联网的发展史上布满了烧钱的痕迹。

当京东进入2025年的外卖市场,无论是商家还是消费者,都在等待刘强东“撒钱”。4月11日,京东外卖正式上线百亿补贴,进入京东App,外卖入口位于主页秒送频道中的首屏位置,并贴上了显眼的百亿补贴标识。麦当劳满20-15元,Tims、库迪、霸王茶姬等咖啡奶茶品牌满15-10元的补贴券“霸屏”。

“百亿补贴”不仅带动了京东App下载量,在苹果应用商店免费App榜单冲到第六,补贴之后价格仅3块9的生椰拿铁,大幅带动了库迪咖啡订单量暴涨。在京东App内,库迪咖啡显示“已售2000万+”。有库迪咖啡工作人员表示,每天一开门就有近百单,门店内全是等着拿货的外卖员。

京东“一年投入超100亿”,美团也不示弱,“我们将发放更多助力金,帮助商家降成本提收入。”4月14日,美团外卖总经理薛冰宣布,未来三年,美团外卖将向餐饮行业整体投入1000亿元,具体聚焦四大方向,包括帮助商家补贴消费者激活需求、发放助力金帮商家增加收入、扶持和奖励优秀品质商家,以及推动明厨亮灶覆盖10万家店、加强行业基础建设等。

AI识股

对京东来说,百亿补贴能够持续多久,停止补贴之后还会有多少消费者继续使用京东外卖,这是难以回避的问题。与此同时,有不少消费者注意到,不仅消费者在“薅羊毛”,有商家也在刷单“薅”京东的补贴。

零售电商专家庄帅表示,通过对外卖平台长达十几年的研究看来,新外卖平台在短期内很难通过补贴、促销的形式快速提高单量。在美团和饿了么两大成熟外卖平台的竞争压力下,新进入者无法避开外卖平台的两大经营难点:有限供给和峰值即配。此前百度外卖、滴滴外卖、抖音外卖等之所以选择出售或关停,很大原因也是基于此。

根据庄帅分析,有限的产量和有限的服务范围决定了餐饮商家的新陈代谢不如工业化的实物商家,因此,电商平台也就没有办法通过类似618、双11这样的大促,在短期内快速提升餐饮的外卖订单量,实现规模增长。另外,从用户的消费习惯来看,外卖平台每天都在进行着“峰值即配”(峰值即时配送),平台不得不在每个城市建立一套强大的线下运营体系,并投入大量的技术和资金,开发出匹配百万量级骑手和千万量级商家的强大的派单系统和调度系统,并不断进行优化:保证骑手到店后马上取餐,实现“即时取”,然后按照最优路线准时送达用户。

在外卖市场形成“双雄”稳定格局之前,以美团、饿了么为首的外卖平台们在过去十多年内补贴金额达到千亿元级别。在庄帅看来,新外卖平台想要规模化发展,需要下大力气解决上述两个经营难点,甚至还需要再投入超过千亿级资金才有机会做到万亿规模。以现有的竞争格局和各大平台的增长及盈利压力下,大抵很难做出这样的投入决策。

2024年,京东全年收入达11588亿元,同比增长6.8%,创历史新高;净利润414亿元,同比大幅增长71%。2024年,京东经营活动产生的现金流量净额为581亿元,截至年末公司的现金及现金等价物、受限制现金及短期投资总额2414亿元。从业绩来看,京东不缺钱,不过,“认真做外卖”的刘强东打算为此付出多少呢?

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