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  华尔街见闻

  华尔街分析师普遍认为,GLP-1减肥药领域正在从注射剂型向便捷的口服形式转变,而礼来已经取得了早期领先优势。这场激烈的多年竞争已经有了明显的赢家,至少目前看来,礼来已被市场加冕为GLP-1药物领域的新王者。

  礼来公司的口服减肥药Orforglipron在三期临床试验中表现出色,可以媲美甚至超越注射型GLP-1药物。

  市场对礼来的突破性进展反应强烈。4月17日,礼来股价收涨超14%,盘中暴涨16%,创下自2023年8月以来的最大单日涨幅。

  与此同时,长期占据GLP-1市场主导地位的诺和诺德股价则大幅收跌近8%。

  根据礼来公布发布的新闻稿,其口服GLP-1药物orforglipron在3期临床试验中“展示了统计学上显著的疗效结果,且安全性与注射型GLP-1药物一致”。

  数据显示,服用Orforglipron的参与者在40周后平均减轻了16磅,约占体重的7.9%,这一表现超过了礼来之前预计的4%至7%减重范围。

  相比之下,诺和诺德的明星产品Ozempic在最高剂量下糖尿病患者仅减轻约6%的体重。

  “这些数据代表了一款一上市就能成为重磅产品的最佳情况,”Jefferies分析师AkashTewari表示。

  瑞穗证券医疗保健专家JaredHolz表示,礼来将在相当长一段时间内保持该类别中的卓越地位,因为基于这些数据,其领先于制药和生物技术领域竞争对手的优势正在扩大。

  华尔街分析师普遍认为,GLP-1减肥药领域正在从注射剂型向便捷的口服形式转变,而礼来已经取得了早期领先优势。这场激烈的多年竞争已经有了明显的赢家,至少目前看来,礼来已被市场加冕为GLP-1药物领域的新王者。

  礼来公司董事长兼CEODavidRicks在一份声明中写道:

  除了便利性外,礼来还在积极准备大规模生产Orforglipron。该公司最近披露了价值近5.5亿美元的库存,“主要与Orforglipron相关”。这表明礼来正在建立产品库存,避免诺和诺德和自身注射型GLP-1药物曾面临的供应短缺问题。

  LeerinkPartners分析师DavidRisinger表示:礼来将成为唯一一家拥有易于生产的口服GLP-1药物的公司,领先新竞争对手近三年。这一优势将使礼来能够在更长时间内保持更高定价能力。

  登顶减肥药之王?

  据华尔街见闻此前提及,在礼来公布这一振奋人心的消息的同一周,其竞争对手辉瑞宣布停止开发其口服减肥药Danuglipron,原因是临床试验中一名患者出现潜在与药物相关的肝损伤。报道称,辉瑞的退出进一步巩固了礼来在这一领域的领先地位。

  与此同时,诺和诺德自去年6月以来持续遭遇一连串利空,包括减重药Wegovy和Ozempic需求不及预期、口服减重药monlunabant的中期试验结果令人失望,以及另一款在研注射药物CagriSema的数据表现不佳,导致其本月痛失欧股市值老大的位置。

  GLP-1减肥药市场预计将从目前的280亿美元迅速增长至2030年的约950亿美元。根据高盛分析师的预测,Orforglipron的风险调整后峰值销售额(包括肥胖和糖尿病)将在2035年达到235亿美元,远高于市场共识的168亿美元。

  为避免类似注射型GLP-1药物的供应短缺问题,礼来已经开始积极备货Orforglipron,最近披露的价值近5.5亿美元的库存“主要与Orforglipron相关”。有报道称,公司计划在5年内实现Orforglipron在美国的全部供应本地化生产。

  根据临床试验数据库,礼来公司的主要肥胖症试验最早将于7月完成。该公司计划今年晚些时候寻求减重适应症的监管批准,明年初则将申请糖尿病适应症。如果一切顺利,分析师预计该药物最早可能在2026年上半年获得FDA批准上市。

  风险提示及免责条款

  市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。

专题:2025年全国企业管理创新大会

  2025年4月17日-18日,“2025年全国企业管理创新大会”在广东珠海举行,主题为“管理激发活力创新引领未来”。兖矿能源集团股份有限公司董事、董事会秘书黄霄龙出席并演讲。

  黄霄龙介绍到,兖矿能源是由山东能源集团控股的上市公司,1998年在香港、纽约和上海三地同时上市。在澳大利亚的子公司分别在2012年和2018年实现了在悉尼和香港上市。2024年又完成了德国萨尔富(音译)公司的并购,成为中国唯一一家拥有六地上市平台的大型能源企业。

  兖矿能源是以矿业、高端化工新材料、高端装备制造、智慧物流和新能源为主导产业的能源企业,资产和业务分布在山东、新疆及境外的澳大利亚、北美、欧洲等国家和地区。2024年度,公司实现商品煤产量1.42亿吨,高端化工品产量870万吨,实现营业收入1390亿元,净利润144亿元,2024年底,总资产3586亿元。

  他还提到了兖矿能源在国际化发展的过程当中主要采用的资本运营的模式和方式。兖矿能源在资本市场利用效率及国际化投资收益率方面取得了比较好的成效,特别是有效运用了资本运营的多种创新模式,实现了快速、高效的国际化发展,每一次重大的资本运作,都实现了阶段性的跨越。在资本+资源的发展模式当中,成功地创新运用了多种资本运营的方式。

  方式一是采用安排方案的方式,拓展海外基地的增量。方式二是换股替代,借壳上市,快速集聚竞争优势。方式三是实施配股并购,竞争合作,创造商界经典案例。方式四是创新模式,融资变现,首开表外融资先河。

  黄霄龙表示,兖矿的国际化发展也并非是一路繁花,历经了酸甜苦辣,也有风雨坎坷。总结一下有几个方面的体会:

  一是必须要以战略的高度确立资本运作在高质量跨越发展中的地位。

  二是必须夯实基础,创建适合适宜的公司治理体系。

  三是必须注重属地经营,融合管理,凝聚共谋发展合力。

  四是必须完善管控,动态强化风险管理。

  五是必须构建以提高上市公司质量为主线的价值管理机制。

  他强调,“国际化发展分候争地,管理创新未有穷期,惟创新者进,惟创新者强,惟创新者胜。”

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